Tag Archives: Atlanta Braves

…And Your 2013 New York Mets Pitching Staff Is…

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With the Mets hopelessly out of playoff contention for this year, it’s not too early to look forward to next year. This projection takes into account free agency, but not trades. Today’s topic is the pitching staff.

First, the current staff. All italicized players are impending free agents

Starters:

  • R.A. Dickey
  • Johan Santana
  • Jonathon Niese
  • Chris Young
  • Matt Harvey

Bullpen:

  • Frank Francisco
  • Bobby Parnell
  • Josh Edgin
  • Jon Rauch
  • Ramon Ramirez
  • Jeremy Hefner
  • Manny Acosta

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

The Mets shouldn’t have to look outside the organization for starting help. R.A. Dickey’s option is a no-brainer to pick up, Niese signed an extension earlier in the year so he’d staying put, and Harvey is here to stay. Santana has a spot next year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Mets decide to trade him and his expiring contract next year when the feel that wunderkind Zach Wheeler is ready. Chris Young may be leaving, but Dillon Gee is due back next year, and should take his rotation spot. Mike Pelfrey, who began the year in the Mets’ rotation, is an obvious non-tender candidate, but it’s not out of the question the Mets would resign him at a reduced rate and stash him in Buffalo as depth.

The bullpen has been a mess all year, so expect a major overhaul. Edgin and Parnell have spots that are theirs to lose (young, cheap, power arms are valuable commodities). Francisco is there because the Mets will continue to justify his contract ($6.5 million next year). Ramirez will leave in free agency, and Acosta will be non-tendered. The Mets could re-sign Jon Rauch, but it’s probable he’ll seek one more pay day as he’s putting up career numbers. Hefner will probably go back to the farm, and become Dillon Gee 2.0 (first starter up if injury strikes, and consistently inconsistent). That means the Mets will have to fill up four empty bullpen spots.

Two of those bullpen spots should be reserved for Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Both are being stretched out as starters in AAA, but there’s no room for both of them in the majors. With Niese, Harvey, and Wheeler already under control for the next 4+ years, there wouldn’t be room for both if the Mets give Dickey a deserved contract extension, and signed a marquee free agent in a few years (a rotation where your #5 starter is Niese sounds scary, doesn’t it?). Both Familia and Mejia have good fastballs, and Familia has a potential knee-buckling curve, while Mejia throws a nice changeup. They both also need to improve their command, but their stuff is nasty enough to solidify a weak bullpen.

With two more spots, the Mets will likely need to go outside the organization to fill these. They’re in need of a Lefty One Out Guy (affectionately known as a L.O.O.G.Y) with Byrdak having possible career ending injuries. Randy Choate is available, and absolutely kills lefties, but would be chased by contending teams that can offer more money, so my guess is the Mets go with Mike Gonzalez as their L.O.O.G.Y. He’s got a career 2.90 ERA over 10 big league seasons, and is returning to form as a member of the rival Nationals. At 34 years old, he’s winding down is his career, but the Mets will slightly overpay him for two years of service, in part because of their need, and in part because it would take away a Nationals reliever.

Going truly outside the box, the Mets may fill up their last bullpen spot with the Australian side-armer Peter Moylan. While the medical red flags would obviously be raised, he’s a low-risk, high-reward candiate. He has a career 2.60 ERA, and has posted years with the rival Braves that were really, really, good. Plus, Moylan doesn’t like Nickelback, which is worth the signing even if he had a 4.60 ERA.

So to recap, here’s how I believe the New York Mets’ 2013 pitching staff will look like

Starters:

  • R.A. Dickey
  • Johan Santana
  • Jonathon Niese
  • Matt Harvey
  • Dillon Gee

Bullpen:

  • Frank Francisco
  • Bobby Parnell
  • Jenrry Mejia
  • Josh Edgin
  • Jeurys Familia
  • Peter Moylan
  • Mike Gonzalez

Five Fun Facts About Yesterday’s Mets Victory

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This isn’t going to be a daily thing or anything, just five fun facts about a game I find interesting enough. These will mostly be dramatic victories or heart-breaking losses (if Mets fans hearts could break anymore).

1. Yesterday was the first time Jason Bay reached base three times since April 18th of earlier this year. That was a 14-6 loss to the Braves.

2. The Mets won their first extra-inning game since April 29th against the Rockies. They had lost four other extra-inning games since then, including two by five runs.

3. Manny Acosta picked up the save by giving up one run in one inning. He also lowered his ERA to 10.25.

4. The Mets scored four runs off Sergio Romo in last night’s 8th inning. Romo had previously allowed four runs all season.

5. Scott Hairston is the only Met to hit a homerun in extra innings this year (doing so twice). The last Met to hit a homerun in extra innings was Jason Pridie on September 11th of next year.

Phantom GM Part 2: Hairston Heads to Atlanta (Update)

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12:23am: And Jaye Chapman is being sent to Chicago as part of the deal. 2/2 with identifying what AAA players Wild Card teams would be willing to move.

10:56pm: Oh, hey look, Reed Johnson traded to Atlanta…so 2/2 with trades that end up busting hours after post. Can’t wait for tomorrow’s.

The Trade Deadline is quickly approaching, and the Mets, thankfully, are looking more like sellers as each loss piles up. While Sandy Alderson and his personnel were looking for pieces to buy as recently as three weeks ago, the abrupt struggles by the Mets leave them little time to work out trades with the still-contending teams.

For help that nobody in the Mets’ organization will ever see, and mostly for my personal amusement, I’ll be developing a trade a day until the trade deadline. Each one makes sense on paper and will help the Mets for a run next year.

Without further ado, today’s trade suggestion:

OF Scott Hairston, RHP Jon Rauch, 3B Wilmer Flores and cash considerations to the Atlanta Braves for 2B Tommy La Stella, RHP J.R. Graham, and RHP Jaye Chapman.

The Braves need a lefty killer. Hairston is one of the best in the bigs, with a season slash-line of .308/.341/.617 against southpaws. He’d be an immense upgrade over the struggling and injured Matt Diaz.

Rauch has a history of being a solid reliever, and if the Mets pick up his whole salary (something a team needs to do in order to get better return), he’ll find a spot in Atlanta’s bullpen. I mean, he’s a better option than Luis Avilan at least.

Wilmer Flores is a 20-year old Mets prospect. After being hyped up by the media upon his arrival as a A-Rod type of player, he’s had some below-average seasons in the minors, and moved from SS to 3B, decreasing his value. Right now though, he’s looking he may be able to stick at 3B, and the Braves could definitely use another 3B in a year. He’s also hitting very well for the first time since signing with Mets, so selling him high would be a good idea.

Quick side note on the Braves’ 3B situation. They too have a 3B prospect who may not stick (Edward Salcedo). Adding Flores gives them an increased chance of having an impact 3B for the next 10 years, and, at the worst, gives them a strong fourth outfielder.

In return, the Mets would grab a bat-heavy 2B in La Stella. While scouts question whether or not he can stick at 2B, they get excited about his bat. La Stella has the potential to be a Daniel Murphy 2.0 player, with a bit less contact, and a bit more pop.

J.R. Graham would be the prize of this deal. A 4th round pick out of Santa Clara University from last year’s draft, Graham has a 2.27 ERA over 170.1 minor league innings so far. With a fastball that averages around 96mph, and a wicked slider, his floor looks like that of an elite closer while his ceiling is tremendous. With the Braves already having two top-50 pitching prospects in Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado, and young pitchers like Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, and Brandon Beachy, and the Braves have a starting five for the next four-to-five years.

Jaye Chapman is a minor league reliever that is close to being big-league ready. He’s not overpowering, and doesn’t have filthy peripherals, but he’s solid. He has good command to go with the average fastball and would be a good bridge guy to the 8th inning electric arms. At this point, he’d be an immediate upgrade over the Acostalypse.

Why would the Braves do this? For starters, they’re rivals with the Mets, and trading with rivals means paying a premium. Hairston would give them a bat they would really use in a run for a Wild Card spot. Rauch would be a free upgrade this year over marginal relievers the Braves have, and Flores is a decent prospect. In return the Mets get a bullpen arm for 2013, a possible #2 starter or dominant reliever, and Daniel Murphy. That’s not a bad haul for Scott Hairston, Jon Rauch, and an overhyped prospect.

Lets Go Nats!

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The Mets are in the midst of playing 20 games in 20 days and open up a three game series at Citi Field against the NL East-leading Washington Nationals today. This is the crucial stretch of the Mets’ free-falling season.

As the Mets entered July, R.A. Dickey had a  June that brought comparisons to Cliff Lee’s epic month last year, and the Mets were 43-36, riding a four game winning streak after sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road. It looked like this could be one of the most surprising Mets teams in memory. Not 1969 Miracle Mets surprising, but 1999-2000 surprising. And, the Mets are celebrating their 50th season of existence! It was a storybook season–you couldn’t write this!

Flash forward to July 23rd, and the Mets have won four games since sweeping the Dodgers. They’ve lost nine of their last 10 contests, most recently being swept by the Dodgers at home. R.A. Dickey has had a July to forget and the Mets are 47-48, the first time the team has been below .500 all year. They currently sit 8.5 games behind the Nationals, and five games behind the rival Atlanta Braves for the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Ah, the 2nd Wild Card spot; the game-changer. Why shouldn’t the Mets go for it? Five games over two months isn’t a huge deficit (the Mets and Braves each have 67 games to go), and if the Mets win the one-game series against the other Wild Card winner, they sneak their way into the playoffs–anything can happen there! The Mets don’t need much help in the way of starting pitching or hitting, but add a few solid relievers, and suddenly they’re a formidable team. Hell, what am I saying? Lets sell the farm and win the World Series!

The above was how a optimistic fan would look at things (read the byline of the blog). That whole scenario brings us back to the title of this post: as a Mets fan, I hope the Nationals sweep the Mets in this coming series. Bury them, kill them, I don’t care. I don’t want the Mets to win a single game of this series. If Washington can take the Mets out into the backyard, put the shotgun to their head, and pull the trigger, I’ll be grateful.

The 2012 season has been a fun one, but it needs to die. The worst thing that can happen to the Mets franchise is hope. Following the brutal 2006 NLCS, the Mets have been a disaster. As Fred Wilpon so eloquently put it: “We’re snakebitten, baby.” Two years of being eliminated from playoff contention on the last day of the season, followed by three years of mediocre, uninspiring baseball has all led up to this season.

The Mets are on the upswing, there’s no denying that. Of their eight regular position players, only the LF (Jason Bay/Scott Hairston) and CF (Andres Torres) have come from outside the Mets farm system. They have two of the most exciting pitching prospects in the minors (Zach Wheeler, and Matt Harvey (making his first start on Thursday)), and some electric bullpen arms (Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia) that will graduate to the majors in the upcoming year or so. A Mets fan can start to hope, but not for this year.

You can’t let something as tantalizing as a one-game playoff to get into the actual playoffs, throw the franchise plan off course. It took the Mets years to get out of the ruins former-GM Omar Minaya left them in. Yes, they’re five games back of a Wild Card spot, but there are five other teams all within five games of that second Wild Card. Even if the Mets get past the Braves, they still have to get by the Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals, and also hold off the Arizona Diamondbacks to claim that Wild Card. Why trade four-to-six years of a future asset for a two-month rental? It’s an uphill climb the Mets just aren’t ready for yet.

It was an uphill climb in 2004 when the Mets were six games back during the trade deadline, and those damn Mets had hope. On that day, the Mets made two trades that altered the course of the franchise into what they’ve become today. First they traded their best pitching prospect, Scott Kazmir, to the now Tampa Bay Rays, for journeyman starter Victor Zambrano. Then, they traded future MVP-candidate Jose Bautista to the Pirates for another journeyman starter, Kris Benson. The Mets finished that year 71-91, 25 games out of first place, and 21 games out of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Bautista has hit 124 Home Runs through the last two-and-a-half seasons, while Kazmir was a good pitcher from 2005-2008 before flaming out.

Just think of where the Mets would be though if they had kept both and admitted defeat in 2004. Bautista would be patrolling LF where Jason Bay and his albatross of a contract is currently platooning, and Kazmir had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 5.5 in 2007, and a WAR of 3.6 in 2008. Replace John Maine and his 2.2 WAR in 2007, and 1.3 WAR in 2008, and the Mets would have three extra wins in ’07, and two in ’08, enough to make the playoffs both years.

So all of this is pleading with the Mets to not repeat a mistake the franchise has made once already. Please, Washington, kill the Mets season. Make the Mets trade deadline sellers, instead of trade deadline buyers. Even the most optimistic Mets fan can’t justify trading for help when you’re 11.5 games out of first place. Next year is a time for hope, not this year.