Tag Archives: Zach Wheeler

…And Your 2013 New York Mets Pitching Staff Is…

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With the Mets hopelessly out of playoff contention for this year, it’s not too early to look forward to next year. This projection takes into account free agency, but not trades. Today’s topic is the pitching staff.

First, the current staff. All italicized players are impending free agents

Starters:

  • R.A. Dickey
  • Johan Santana
  • Jonathon Niese
  • Chris Young
  • Matt Harvey

Bullpen:

  • Frank Francisco
  • Bobby Parnell
  • Josh Edgin
  • Jon Rauch
  • Ramon Ramirez
  • Jeremy Hefner
  • Manny Acosta

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

The Mets shouldn’t have to look outside the organization for starting help. R.A. Dickey’s option is a no-brainer to pick up, Niese signed an extension earlier in the year so he’d staying put, and Harvey is here to stay. Santana has a spot next year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Mets decide to trade him and his expiring contract next year when the feel that wunderkind Zach Wheeler is ready. Chris Young may be leaving, but Dillon Gee is due back next year, and should take his rotation spot. Mike Pelfrey, who began the year in the Mets’ rotation, is an obvious non-tender candidate, but it’s not out of the question the Mets would resign him at a reduced rate and stash him in Buffalo as depth.

The bullpen has been a mess all year, so expect a major overhaul. Edgin and Parnell have spots that are theirs to lose (young, cheap, power arms are valuable commodities). Francisco is there because the Mets will continue to justify his contract ($6.5 million next year). Ramirez will leave in free agency, and Acosta will be non-tendered. The Mets could re-sign Jon Rauch, but it’s probable he’ll seek one more pay day as he’s putting up career numbers. Hefner will probably go back to the farm, and become Dillon Gee 2.0 (first starter up if injury strikes, and consistently inconsistent). That means the Mets will have to fill up four empty bullpen spots.

Two of those bullpen spots should be reserved for Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Both are being stretched out as starters in AAA, but there’s no room for both of them in the majors. With Niese, Harvey, and Wheeler already under control for the next 4+ years, there wouldn’t be room for both if the Mets give Dickey a deserved contract extension, and signed a marquee free agent in a few years (a rotation where your #5 starter is Niese sounds scary, doesn’t it?). Both Familia and Mejia have good fastballs, and Familia has a potential knee-buckling curve, while Mejia throws a nice changeup. They both also need to improve their command, but their stuff is nasty enough to solidify a weak bullpen.

With two more spots, the Mets will likely need to go outside the organization to fill these. They’re in need of a Lefty One Out Guy (affectionately known as a L.O.O.G.Y) with Byrdak having possible career ending injuries. Randy Choate is available, and absolutely kills lefties, but would be chased by contending teams that can offer more money, so my guess is the Mets go with Mike Gonzalez as their L.O.O.G.Y. He’s got a career 2.90 ERA over 10 big league seasons, and is returning to form as a member of the rival Nationals. At 34 years old, he’s winding down is his career, but the Mets will slightly overpay him for two years of service, in part because of their need, and in part because it would take away a Nationals reliever.

Going truly outside the box, the Mets may fill up their last bullpen spot with the Australian side-armer Peter Moylan. While the medical red flags would obviously be raised, he’s a low-risk, high-reward candiate. He has a career 2.60 ERA, and has posted years with the rival Braves that were really, really, good. Plus, Moylan doesn’t like Nickelback, which is worth the signing even if he had a 4.60 ERA.

So to recap, here’s how I believe the New York Mets’ 2013 pitching staff will look like

Starters:

  • R.A. Dickey
  • Johan Santana
  • Jonathon Niese
  • Matt Harvey
  • Dillon Gee

Bullpen:

  • Frank Francisco
  • Bobby Parnell
  • Jenrry Mejia
  • Josh Edgin
  • Jeurys Familia
  • Peter Moylan
  • Mike Gonzalez

Those Snakebitten Mets

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For the unfamiliar, the name of this blog comes from the infamous New Yorker interview Fred Wilpon gave in May of last year (Bob Gelen alluded to this when he addressed the class last week). As just another Mets fan with no stake in the team, I can be a cynical jackass and maybe, just maybe, come across as passionate. Fred Wilpon can’t, because Fred Wilpon isn’t just another Mets fan.

He’s the Mets owner. The guy who OK’d Steve Phillips’ destruction of the farm system, and he OK’d the horrible contracts dished out by Omar Minaya. He let all of this happen under his watch, and he still chocked it up to bad luck and brushed it aside claiming the Mets were a lousy club.

The New Yorker piece is a fascinating read, but the point this post focuses on is on page seven. Jeffrey Toobin, the author of the article, gives us Wilpon’s analysis of the New York Mets from an April 20 game against the Houston Astros. Wilpon had some choice quotes that rubbed fans and players the wrong way, so, without further ado, the quote regarding their player, and what they’ve done since.

Jose Reyes

Then:

“He’s a racehorse,” Wilpon said. … He thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money. … He won’t get it.”

Now:

Reyes had an All-Star season with the Mets in 2011, even garnering some MVP votes. In the off-season he signed as a free agent with the Miami Marlins for six years, and 106 million dollars. Wilpon was right, as he didn’t get Carl Crawford money (seven years/$142 million), but Jose Reyes money isn’t bad. Not bad at all. He’s currently having an average year for the Marlins.

David Wright

Then:

“He’s pressing. … A really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar.”

Now:

Wright is in the midst of a resurgent season. With a slash line of .336/.425/.559 entering Friday’s contest against the Diamondbacks, Wright is having more than a very good season. He’s having a superstar season during a contract season, so expect to see him playing somewhere else next year.

Carlos Beltran

Then:

“We had some schmuck in New York who paid him based on that one series. … He’s sixty-five to seventy per cent of what he was.”

Now:

Wilpon was referencing Carlos Beltran’s amazing 2004 postseason with the Houston Astros where he put up these ridiculous numbers:

Year Tm Series Opp Rslt G PA AB R H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2004 HOU NLDS ATL W 5 24 22 9 10 2 4 9 2 1 4 .455 .500 1.091 1.591
2004 HOU NLCS STL L 7 32 24 12 10 1 4 5 4 8 4 .417 .563 .958 1.521
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:

So the Mets rewarded him with a lucrative seven year/$119 million contract. Beltran produced when he was healthy, but he couldn’t stay on the field for half of the contract. The Mets’ ended up flipping him to San Francisco at the trade deadline last year and stole the Giants’ #1 pitching prospect Zach Wheeler. Currently, he’s producing MVP-like numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Ike Davis

Then:

“Good hitter. … Shitty team—good hitter.”

Now:

Davis is the starting first baseman for the Mets but has struggled mightily this year. He’s only recently brought his batting average over the Mendoza line (.200). He currently holds a streak of 42 consecutive games at Citi Field without more than one hit.

The Dude Subsides

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So for some reason or another, management feels compelled to keep the exercise-in-futility known as the 2012 Mets season alive. How else could you explain the recent demotion of Lucas Duda? This is killing me; I won’t be able to reference The Big Lebowski until the Mets’ actually realize they’re doomed for failure.

And knowing the Mets, that moment is midway through August, after trading Matt Harvey to the Mariners for Kevin Millwood and Oliver Perez, and shipping Zach Wheeler back to San Francisco for Barry Zito and Aubrey Huff.

OK, that’s not fair. I overreacted. Sandy Alderson and his crew have steered the Mets into the right direction. There haven’t been any major screwups, but sending down Duda is fairly eggregious.

I was under the impression that the Mets wanted their young players to play through their struggles. How else could you explain the Mets not demoting Ike Davis after it took him until June 26th to finally break a .200 batting average for the first time this season? Yes, Duda is hitting .140 in the month of July, but he was above .250 in April, May, and June. Ike hit .185 in April, and .154 in May!

What does demoting Duda accomplish anyways? More playing time for Jason Bay? A roster spot for Manny Acosta? Even if you don’t think Duda is a long term answer in RF, why demote him when the going gets bad. Let him come out of his slump, and bring up his value a bit.

Showcase him to potential suitors: “Here’s a MLB-ready RF who has a career .833 OPS (On Base % + Slugging %) against righties. He’s also under team control until  the end of 2017.” Don’t just exile him to Buffalo.

But no, to Buffalo he goes, to get everyday playing time against minor league luminaries like Chad Reineke and Sean Gallagher. You know, not All-Star starters like Gio Gonzalez or Stephen Strasburg.

Because lord knows if you have the opportunity to send a young hitter to AAA to hit 87mph fastballs from Chad Reineke instead of 97mph fastballs from Stephen Strasburg, you seize that opportunity by the throat. Especially if that opportunity allows you to bring up a pitcher with an 11.86 ERA whose best trait is his afro. You have to do it.1

1Yes, I’m channeling my inner Bill Simmons. Footnote and all.

 

Lets Go Nats!

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The Mets are in the midst of playing 20 games in 20 days and open up a three game series at Citi Field against the NL East-leading Washington Nationals today. This is the crucial stretch of the Mets’ free-falling season.

As the Mets entered July, R.A. Dickey had a  June that brought comparisons to Cliff Lee’s epic month last year, and the Mets were 43-36, riding a four game winning streak after sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road. It looked like this could be one of the most surprising Mets teams in memory. Not 1969 Miracle Mets surprising, but 1999-2000 surprising. And, the Mets are celebrating their 50th season of existence! It was a storybook season–you couldn’t write this!

Flash forward to July 23rd, and the Mets have won four games since sweeping the Dodgers. They’ve lost nine of their last 10 contests, most recently being swept by the Dodgers at home. R.A. Dickey has had a July to forget and the Mets are 47-48, the first time the team has been below .500 all year. They currently sit 8.5 games behind the Nationals, and five games behind the rival Atlanta Braves for the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Ah, the 2nd Wild Card spot; the game-changer. Why shouldn’t the Mets go for it? Five games over two months isn’t a huge deficit (the Mets and Braves each have 67 games to go), and if the Mets win the one-game series against the other Wild Card winner, they sneak their way into the playoffs–anything can happen there! The Mets don’t need much help in the way of starting pitching or hitting, but add a few solid relievers, and suddenly they’re a formidable team. Hell, what am I saying? Lets sell the farm and win the World Series!

The above was how a optimistic fan would look at things (read the byline of the blog). That whole scenario brings us back to the title of this post: as a Mets fan, I hope the Nationals sweep the Mets in this coming series. Bury them, kill them, I don’t care. I don’t want the Mets to win a single game of this series. If Washington can take the Mets out into the backyard, put the shotgun to their head, and pull the trigger, I’ll be grateful.

The 2012 season has been a fun one, but it needs to die. The worst thing that can happen to the Mets franchise is hope. Following the brutal 2006 NLCS, the Mets have been a disaster. As Fred Wilpon so eloquently put it: “We’re snakebitten, baby.” Two years of being eliminated from playoff contention on the last day of the season, followed by three years of mediocre, uninspiring baseball has all led up to this season.

The Mets are on the upswing, there’s no denying that. Of their eight regular position players, only the LF (Jason Bay/Scott Hairston) and CF (Andres Torres) have come from outside the Mets farm system. They have two of the most exciting pitching prospects in the minors (Zach Wheeler, and Matt Harvey (making his first start on Thursday)), and some electric bullpen arms (Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia) that will graduate to the majors in the upcoming year or so. A Mets fan can start to hope, but not for this year.

You can’t let something as tantalizing as a one-game playoff to get into the actual playoffs, throw the franchise plan off course. It took the Mets years to get out of the ruins former-GM Omar Minaya left them in. Yes, they’re five games back of a Wild Card spot, but there are five other teams all within five games of that second Wild Card. Even if the Mets get past the Braves, they still have to get by the Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals, and also hold off the Arizona Diamondbacks to claim that Wild Card. Why trade four-to-six years of a future asset for a two-month rental? It’s an uphill climb the Mets just aren’t ready for yet.

It was an uphill climb in 2004 when the Mets were six games back during the trade deadline, and those damn Mets had hope. On that day, the Mets made two trades that altered the course of the franchise into what they’ve become today. First they traded their best pitching prospect, Scott Kazmir, to the now Tampa Bay Rays, for journeyman starter Victor Zambrano. Then, they traded future MVP-candidate Jose Bautista to the Pirates for another journeyman starter, Kris Benson. The Mets finished that year 71-91, 25 games out of first place, and 21 games out of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Bautista has hit 124 Home Runs through the last two-and-a-half seasons, while Kazmir was a good pitcher from 2005-2008 before flaming out.

Just think of where the Mets would be though if they had kept both and admitted defeat in 2004. Bautista would be patrolling LF where Jason Bay and his albatross of a contract is currently platooning, and Kazmir had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 5.5 in 2007, and a WAR of 3.6 in 2008. Replace John Maine and his 2.2 WAR in 2007, and 1.3 WAR in 2008, and the Mets would have three extra wins in ’07, and two in ’08, enough to make the playoffs both years.

So all of this is pleading with the Mets to not repeat a mistake the franchise has made once already. Please, Washington, kill the Mets season. Make the Mets trade deadline sellers, instead of trade deadline buyers. Even the most optimistic Mets fan can’t justify trading for help when you’re 11.5 games out of first place. Next year is a time for hope, not this year.