The era of impunity for Saudi Arabia may be coming to an end as the Biden administration prepares to take office. The new administration will no doubt take a harder line on Saudi’s human rights record and its calamitous war in Yemen. The Biden administration also says it wishes to rejoin the JCPOA, which may be a legal and logistical challenge, but nonetheless signals an intention to calm tensions with Iran.  The new administration will have to skillfully thread the needle by doing so while maintaining a strong relationship with Israel and its Gulf allies.

A shift in U.S. policy may lead Saudi to further cozy up to China, particularly to expand its civilian nuclear program. Saudi recently employed a Chinese company to build a facility for extracting yellowcake from uranium ore, and U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about Saudi plans for a nuclear weapons program.

The Kingdom’s fear of Iran in combination with its massive resources, hawkish leadership, and fear of U.S. abandonment could certainly fuel its nuclear ambitions and escalate an arms race in the Middle East.

As most of the U.S. and several other nations breathe a sigh of relief with President-elect Biden entering office, things are looking up. Already the 46th President is working on regulating COVID cases and named the members of his coronavirus task force. Among his selected advisors is whistleblower Rick Bright who was sidelined by the Trump administration after refusing to support the Trump-endorsed hydroxychloroquine. Meanwhile, the 45th President continues to claim fraud and play golf. No matter – there are only 70 days until this administration ends.

Thankfully, President-elect Biden is already working on executive actions to undo many of 45’s controversial policies. He plans on strengthening multilateralism by having the U.S. rejoin the Paris climate accord and the WHO – information which has been happily received. But will Biden be able to “heal” the current administration’s self-inflicted wounds? As Biden received several warm congratulations from many world-leaders (save a few) Iran, though acknowledging Biden’s win, remained skeptical. The nation’s Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted his disgust about the U.S.’s “ugly face of liberal democracy” and expressed that there is no difference in the outcome of the election. Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani insisted that the new administration could, instead, “compensate for past mistakes” and return the U.S. to the Nuclear Deal. With Iran’s Presidential elections coming up in June, will movement occur regarding the nuclear deal? Biden, already with a plate piled high with problems, should pay special attention to nuclear weapons in his first 100 days. He certainly will have the opportunities to do so with the New Start Treaty expiring in early February – but he is already likely to extend the Treaty for another 5 years having already worked on it during the Obama administration. He should take advantage of this healing process and do something neither the Obama nor Trump administration did – join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Though unlikely, it would be incredibly healing and it might encourage the other eight nuclear-strapped nations to consider accepting it. Though projected to win the election and overcome Trump’s baseless claims of fraud – Kim Jong Un’s and Putin’s silence regarding the outcomes speak volumes. If we are to make any drastic change in terms of reducing the risk of nuclear war, now is the time.

As the news surfaced around the world on the outcomes of the 2020 Presidential Election, which saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump, this outcome sent shockwaves around the world. These shockwaves were embraced with positivity as it appears that the era of Trumpism in America and its effect on the globe. As many world leaders congratulated the victory for Joe Biden, there are some world leaders that have yet congratulate Mr. Biden on the victory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, North Korea’s Kim Jon Un, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, China’s Xi Jingping, and Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa are among a few names of world leaders that are holding back their recognition as Joe Biden being the President-Elect of the United States. It seems that the primary sentiment among these leaders are the fact that President Trump is going to contest and challenge the results off basis on voter fraud and ballot harvesting in the swing states like Arizona, Pennslyvania, Georgia, Michigan, and other states, despite POTUS having no evidence as of right this moment. There are some like Bolsonaro and Jansa that have associated themselves with Trump, that have seen him as an ally and not an adversary.

This is clearly what I am seeing as a legal challenge to the legitimacy of Biden’s victory as well as a hesitation and a sign of hostility toward working with a Biden Administration. Make no mistake, should Biden clear the legal challenge gauntlet posed by the President, there are three huge issues that he will have to face in terms of the world order: Russia, China, and North Korea. But no mistake, these leaders seem to not look forward to a change of power and seem to like the President, its only a matter of time to see whether its clear and present whether Biden will officially be the new President, and how that will effect the United States and relations with the world and its major global actors.

The United States is about to enter an interesting era in nuclear decisions. Critical points of US relations with Russia, Iran, and North Korea are about to rear its head. U.S. and Russia appear to be on the edge toward extension of  their preexisting Nuclear Treaty that is about to expire. Iran has continued to amass nuclear fuel and Biden will have to decide whether he will be the one to step in and stop it. And in North Korea, Kim Jung-un rolled down the street last week their biggest atomic arsenal to date. Israel and Saudi Arabia, which shared President Trump’s deep antipathy toward Iran, may not be particularly thrilled with a Biden presidency. 

Joe Biden’s extensive experience as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as vice president in the Obama administration may give all these nuclear nations a different feel during negotiations. Diplomacy and decency seem to have escaped the White House over the past 4 years, and I think it will be welcomed back on the international stage. It’s difficult to use the word “decency” when talking about weapons of mass destruction with the power to kill billions and potentially annihilate the entire planet, but it is reassuring that the leader of the free world, who has the power to press the button, has proven time and time again to choose decency over destruction. 

While I may feel that way, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has said, “the United States is untrustworthy regardless who is in the White House.”  While Iran may still be interested in entering a deal that relaxes their sanctions, their tumultuous relationship with Trump will not be easily forgotten. 

While Trump has sported a friendly relationship with North Korean like no US President before, critics say, “Mr. Trump’s approach not only failed to persuade Mr. Kim to relinquish his arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles, it bought Mr. Kim time to strengthen them.” We saw just last month North Korea unveiling its largest ever intercontinental ballistic missile. “On Trump’s watch, the North’s nuclear weapons program has grown apace, its missile capabilities have expanded, and Pyongyang can now target the United States with an ICBM,” said Evans J.R. Revere, a former State Department official and expert on North Korea. How President Biden decides to take action to halt this unwanted growth may be one of the most important decisions during his presidency. 

With the COVID pandemic clearly the number one priority of the new administration taking office January 20, 2021, resetting their relationships on the world stage has to be a close number two.

Gladstone, R. (2020, November 07). Biden to Face Long List of Foreign Challenges, With China No. 1. Retrieved November 09, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/world/americas/Biden-foreign-policy.html

 

In her article “How strong is the nuclear taboo today?”, the author Nina Tannewald discusses the “taboo” that currently surrounds nuclear weapons and their usage, particularly their usage against states without nuclear weapons. In her article, Tannenwald articulates her belief that this taboo has helped humanity thus far avoid an apocalyptic nuclear war. She discusses how the characteristically reckless Trump administration has softened the effect of this taboo through the use of aggressive rhetoric threatening the usage of nuclear weapons. The author specifically points to his verbal duel with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.

In case you were unaware, Joe Biden has defeated Trump in the 2020 presidential elections. In my opinion this is great news for people who do not want to see humanity destroyed in nuclear fire because I believe that a Biden administration would work to undo a lot of the damage Trump has done to international norms including the nuclear taboo.

Aside from the obvious allure that nuclear weapons possess to dictators such as Saddam Hussein and the Kim dynasty in North Korea, they can serve as a mandate and a bargaining chip. In the case of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, even the slightest notion that a re-start of the Iraqi nuclear weapons program played into the strongman image that he cultivated throughout his time in power. It was so important that he continued to leave the question unanswered as the United States and its allies threatened invasion in the leadup to the Iraq War for non-compliance with international observers. By refusing to provide the proof that would save Iraq from invasion, he continued to act as if he had something to hide and feed into his strongman persona.

Similarly, it is not entirely the possession of nuclear weapons outright that drives the Kim dynasty to continue to foster a nuclear program. Having nuclear weapons gives North Korea a better negotiating position with the international community. Claiming to scale back (but not completely dismantle) its nuclear program can be exchanged for sorely-needed sanctions relief.

North Korea recently unveiled a massive nuclear capable missile with a Transporter Erector Launcher. This 90 ft tall, 10 ft diameter intercontinental ballistic missile – the Hwasong-16 – is believed to be capable of hitting U.S. cities such as D.C. and New York.  The new developments in the ICBM that are nuclear-capable show that there may be other developments going on in North Korea.

Due to the lack of sanctions relief, Kim has decided to conduct the ongoing nuclear and missile technology tests. However, there hasn’t been the traditionally aggressive rhetoric against the United States and thus it remains to be seen what the North Korean foreign policy approach towards the United States and the rest of the world may look like.

 

North Korea unveils massive nuclear-capable missile with US reach

The use of chemical weapons particularly in the Syrian’s civil war  has been creating so much concern to the international community. According to the reading, “The Future of Chemical Weapons” raises questions about the civil war norm and mot importantly analyzes the Syrian case and its role in further proliferating the use of chemical weapons. The reading discusses three crucial points, first is that chemical weapons have demonstrated limited military utility in Syria. Second, the costs of use have been repeatedly demonstrated by the international reaction to their use. Lastly, the use of sarin—a nerve agent—has attracted a stronger international response than the use of chlorine.

Recently, according to the Middle East monitor article “Syria’s representative to UN: Damascus did not use chemical weapons and does not possess them anymore”, Bashar Jaafari confirms that Syria does not have chemical weapons anymore and did not use them. Also, Syria today is taking a different path through  fully cooperating with the inspection organization in place. According to the latest news, “Syria is currently hosting a delegation of experts and inspectors who arrived two days ago and will stay until 24 November.”

 

This claim and the danger of an (again) Third World War is not a horror film scriptwriter´s mind spring. It can be attributed to the Israeli Settlement Minister Tzachi Hanegbi. The TV interview of the Likud politician from the Party of Prime Minister Netanyahu saying that

If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran

was quoted by several media worldwide, among them The Jerusalem Post[1].

Whether or not the pithy statements of the Likud politician are true; if one asks the Israelis or many Arabic states, there is an increased state of mind to be observed. Not without any reason. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal which was, diplomatically said, rejected by the Trump administration, is now to be dusted again, according to Mr. Bidens’ earlier statements. But is it still America after 4 years of Mr. Trump that determines something on the international stage or does it all depend more on the unity of its allies? We know, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, or according to Wallerstein[2], and more related to security policy

In the future, the United States is likely to fight in coalitions whose CP-defense readiness will be limited to some degree by the capabilities of its least prepared member.

Another question is whether we are dealing here with states or with some dictators and, as Sagan puts it

Such dictators often weaken their state institutions by prizing loyalty over professionalism in military and scientific organizations, thus impeding their nuclear ambitions[3]

And how will a Catholic democrat like Biden prepare for a dialogue with dictators (a “personalist regime”)? It seems Egypt, Syria, and Turkey are all in the pool and Saudi Arabia is well positioned too. How smart again from the Israeli to sign with them that deal…[4]

On the 45^th Birthday of the “Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention” (BTWC), the first international treaty to eliminate a complete category of weapons of mass destruction we should commemorate these ancient weapons as well. It’s only a little reassuring that the nuclear danger is just one of many other dangers that, alongside COVID-19, threaten our civilization.  The use of bacteria, viruses, and other active organic compounds, such as poisons or various drugs, during wars was a common practice already thousands of years ago. Infecting drinking wells with corpses, or even using human and animal feces on cold weapons.

So, we may look optimistically into the future and hope that even after the 45^th President of the USA leaves the White House in an undefined time, no other tough man will find the red button in his office. We can destroy our world also without nukes so efficiently, can´t we?

[1] https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/israeli-minister-warns-of-war-if-biden-returns-to-iran-deal-648097

[2] Mitchel B. Wallerstein, “The Origins and Evolution of the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative,” in: Countering the Proliferation and Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Peter L. Hayes, Vincent J. Jodoin, and Alan R. Van Tassel, eds., New York: McGraw-Hill Co, 1998, Chp. 2 (pp. 21-36)

[3] Scott D. Sagan, “Armed and Dangerous: When Dictators Get the Bomb,” Foreign Affairs, (Vol. 97, No. 6) November/December 2018, pp. 35-43

[4] ibid.

Yesterday, just before noon Eastern Time, U.S. media called the election for President-elect Joe Biden. Cities across the country and around the world reacted in celebration to the news. Church bells rang in Paris and people across the U.K. set off fireworks to mark the occasion. I haven’t yet been able to find another election that received this kind of reaction from America’s allies. Though President Trump has yet to concede, and is in fact continuing to insist he actually won the election, world leaders began to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.

The sentiment of our allies can be summed up in a tweet from Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo: “Welcome back America!” Other leaders were slightly more diplomatic in their statements, but all expressed their excitement to work with the incoming Biden-Harris administration on a multilateral basis. A few organizations were especially relieved by the election results. The Director General of the WHO extended his congratulations and eagerness to work with the new administration. President-elect Biden has promised to reverse President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the WHO. The Secretary General of NATO specifically called out the President-elect’s dedication to the alliance in his statement. The feeling is mutual here in the U.S. A Reuters photographer yesterday captured a photo of a man celebrating Biden’s win at Black Lives Matter Plaza in D.C. with a NATO flag draped around his shoulders. A close ally of Trump’s Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to celebrate the election of Kamala Harris. Vice President-elect Harris’ mother immigrated from India at the age of 19, and her village is celebrating Harris’ election, calling her the pride of the village.

Other leaders who were closer to President Trump have held off on commenting. Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel waited much longer than other leaders and in his message did not refer to Biden as the President-elect, as he did in his statement on the Trump victory in 2016. He immediately followed his message to Biden with a message of gratitude to President Trump for his support of Israel and pro-Israel policies, including the recognition of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. Palestinian leaders have a different view, with official Nabil Shaath telling Turkish media: “There was nothing worse than the Trump era. Good riddance.” Russia, China, Turkey, Brazil and others have not offered their congratulations to the new administration, though Putin was very quick to do so in 2016.

Another interesting note is that some world leaders appear to be pushing back on President Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud in their statements. French President Emmanuel Macron said “America has chosen its new president,” and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas welcomed “clear figures” that decided the election. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny congratulated Americans on “defining the new leadership in a free and fair election.” He went on to say, “this is a privilege which is not available to all countries.”

One notable exception is Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who falsely claimed Donald Trump won re-election after his 3AM speech on election night and has since doubled down. The Prime Minister has tweeted or retweeted hundreds of times in favor of Trump’s election, bashing President-elect Biden and amplifying Trump’s and other Republicans baseless claims of voter fraud and election fraud along with conspiracy theories. He has also echoed U.S. Republican complaints about social media “censorship” of these claims. This could make Slovenian-U.S. relations awkward come January 20, 2021.

Overall, it is clear America’s allies and adversaries recognize President-elect Biden’s win means a return to the foreign policy positions that have been more or less consistent since 1945: an emphasis on multilateralism and strong ties with our allies, a strong NATO to counter Russian aggression, and a warning for authoritarian regimes.