After the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was reconstructed and renamed Serbia and Montenegro in 2003, it eventually ended with Montenegro’s formal declaration of independence on June 3, 2006 and Serbia’s on June 5, 2006. But on August 30, 2020, in a parliamentary election, the ruling pro-Western Democratic party of Socialists lost its bid for reelection of their candidate Milo Djukanovic who is still serving his term as the President of the country until 2023. The FP thinks this election which did not draw enough global attention, will have some serious repercussions on the international order.
According to the article, the party that will take over the Democratic party of Socialists is a pro-Russian and pro-Serbian alliance, and therefore, Moscow has gained an ally not just within NATO, but potentially within the European Union. So the authors are making a wake-up call to the EU to do something in order to curb Russian President Vladimir Putin’s growing influence in the Balkans. Also, as we know, the country has put sanctions on Russia. But one of the leader of the new coalition of the opposition that won the elections said that their first goal is to lift those sanctions. So, we can clearly see that there is a willingness to reset new diplomatic ties with the Kremlin. But one may ask is it bad of they get along with Russia?
NATO’s expansion eastward is regarded as a threat to Russia. It is believed that “Russia lobbied hard to dissuade Montenegro from joining the alliance, and that in 2016, the Kremlin even went so far as to back a coup attempt.” Regardless, Montenegro joined NATO in 2017. So there is definitely a struggle of power for a grip on that region of the world. Therefore, a pro-Russian foreign policy of the country will be at the expense of NATO and the EU because Russia is already the biggest foreign direct investor in Montenegro. It also wields the Serbian Orthodox Church as a powerful weapon.
As a result, the article highlights the fact that Putin worked through the church to fight Montenegro’s split from Serbia back in 2006 and its NATO bid. So, given the new ruling coalition is mainly made up of Serbian nationalists called the “For the Future of Montenegro” which is backed by the Serbian Orthodox Church, I think that is a very big leverage for Moscow. In fact. it came out that the Moscow-leaning Serbian church is deeply involved in the politics of the country to the extent that the Serbian government was accused of meddling into their elections, which they denied.
A call is made to the international community to watch out for what is developing in that small country in the Balkans because as Russian influence grows, conflict could rise as well. Moreover, Montenegro is a geostrategic positioning for Russia because of its location on the Adriatic Sea and its associated naval presence. So clearly, Russia wants to control that area. So in the midst of all these struggles, the article recommended that the EU must accelerate the membership of Montenegro and NATO must have a cybersecurity hub headquartered in there to counter “Moscow’s increasingly aggressive cyberintrusions and troll farms in the region.”Personally, I second that because cybersecurity is one of the biggest issues of our modern world we are facing; and if Russia could meddle into U.S. elections how much less with a tiny nation less than one million inhabitants?
Finally, Serbia which is still in the midst of its own negotiations has received warnings from the EU for a continual interference in Montenegro politics and for being a foothold of Russia. I think that at this juncture, Serbia will have to take a stand as to whether it will be on the EU side or the Russian’s because as the article concluded, “Serbia’s relations with Montenegro will be the litmus test for whether or not Serbia is shifting its foreign-policy goals toward the West.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/17/montenegro-latest-domino-fall-russia-pro-west-europe-nato/
A few years ago Trump made acomment about Montenegro in a FOX interview that got some airtime:
“You know, Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people…. They are very aggressive people. They may get aggressive, and congratulations, you’re in World War III.”
At the time, I thought Trump was simply using Montenegro as an offhand example of how any NATO ally, no matter how tiny, could invoke Article V and lead the alliance into serious conflict. Now I see that Montenegro is actually an apt example of how Russia is extending its political influence in the small countries of eastern and southeastern Europe. While Russian influence in Montenegro may not literally lead to World War III (though WWI did start in the region!) it could very easily reignite conflict in the Balkans
This is an interesting–and, I agree, under-addressed–situation, Marcus. (And thanks, Shana, for your comment on it as well.) I think that most Americans find the politics of the Balkans mostly a black box, and it’s clear that there are still deep hatreds between/among the peoples of those now-separate states. And there can be little doubt that Putin is attempting to make in-roads and wean these countries away from NATO and the EU. That said, there is effective counter-leverage, and that is economic. The financial benefits that a small country like Montenegro obtains from the EU are very significant, and Russia (in its weakened economic condition) would have a very hard time matching them. But Montenegro can’t have it both ways; they can’t “tilt” west and east at the same time! –Professor Wallerstein