A good friend of mine spent this weekend marching the streets of New York and Boston in hopes of bringing attention to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Being Armenian himself, the emotion of his stories of the struggle of his family escaping to Syria during the Armenian genocide was heavy. His bias against Turkey was clear, and with myself being uneducated on the subject I wanted to further research who the actors in this newly arisen conflict were. The first thing I discovered was, this is nowhere near a newly arisen conflict- yet instead the culmination of decades of hostility following a 1994 ceasefire. The second issue I was surprised by is the land they are fighting for is a land-locked enclave. Generally when I imagine a fight for land between two countries, I imagine a border war- two sides pushing back and forth in order to establish cartographical lines.
While the Nagorno-Karabakh region is located inside Azerbaijan and occupied by ethnic Armenians, Turkey is using its power and influence to support Azerbaijan. Turkey being a member of NATO, whose core value is to support peace, brings the question of why they are instead instigating a war? The fact that the Nagorno-Karabakh region is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan complicates Armenia’s claim of unwarranted hostility. Now that a NATO member is clearly involved, there is a potential for this local conflict to evolve into a powder-keg when all the regional powers want to establish who truly has the final say in issues in this region.
The cease-fire that is currently being loosely-observed was brokered by Russia. Russia has their own mutual-defense treaty with Armenia, but still holds close ties with Azerbaijan. Iran has also reached out to Russia to discuss the conflict. If Russia and Iran decide to back Armenia’s claims and Turkey vows to stand side by side with Azerbaijan, the rest of the NATO members get put in a very precarious position. Do they step up to defend their Turkish ally or are the risks simply too large?
Kramer, A. (2020, October 03). Why Is Conflict Erupting Again Between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Retrieved October 12, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/article/armenian-azerbaijan-conflict.html
Troianovski, A. (2020, October 10). Fighting Eases, Briefly, After Cease-Fire Between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Retrieved October 12, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/10/world/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh.html
Chris,
I’m glad that you were able to learn more about the sources of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabahk. It is a very complicated story, but you’re certainly right that the historic hatreds and ethnic conflicts between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis, each with their own client relationships with large regional powers, is at the root of it.
I, too, know ethnic Armenians living in the US whose families were either wiped out or forced to flee during the Turkish genocide, which the Turks to this day do not acknowledge (though the rest of the world has). So each of the two states, Armenia and Azerbaijan, have powerful nations supporting their cause, and then add to that the fact that Russia has ensured that, at least until recently, Nagorno-Karabahk would remain a “frozen conflict.” Unfortunately, it now appears to have come unfrozen. –Professor Wallerstein