The Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Nuclear Connection

One of the scariest potential fallouts of a nuclear-armed Iran is the ultimatum it would issue to Iran’s geopolitical rival Saudi Arabia. It ostensibly leads to a Saudi Arabia which would see no other alternative than to acquire the bomb themselves. There is reason to believe that the refractory period between a hypothetical first Iranian nuclear test and a successful test for their Saudi counterparts may be shorter than commonly believed.

Perhaps the closest case-study which most resembles the nuclear proliferation issue between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the situation that arose between geopolitical foes Pakistan and India. India successfully tested its first nuclear test – codenamed “Smiling Buddha” – in May 1974. The test coincided with talks with the Pakistanis aimed at normalizing the relations between the two countries. The nuclear revelations quickly led to Pakistan withdrawing from the talks and resolving to commit to a nuclear program of its own. However, it took Pakistan twenty-four years to get its hands on the bomb.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have always enjoyed a close relationship, with some policy analysts going as far as characterizing it as a “special relationship.” It has been reported that Saudi Arabia even played the role of a financial backer in Pakistan’s nuclear program. There are legitimate fears that Pakistan may export a nuclear device to the Saudis in the event that Iran gets the bomb. MBS made several state visits to Pakistan immediately following the ratification of the JCPOA agreement which drew the ire of the Saudis. In addition, an unspecified military cooperation agreement was signed between the two countries in early 2016.