Monthly Archives: April 2012

This chart says it all about the S&P 500:

Hat tip to Barry Ritholz for constantly posting the great work of Doug Short on his blog.

This chart plays into my confirmation bias. The market almost always rallies the year of a presidential election. We have followed that path, and the rally rates to run out of steam some time later in the year. In my opinion, the market cannot escape the cumulative effects of austerity in Europe and the US. The year 1936 offers an analogy to 2012. Assuming the Mayans and other doomsayers prove wrong and we all live to see 2013, the market likely corrects.

I’m only long one stock at the moment: S (Sprint). A friend of mine introduces the alternative bullish view on his blog:

“When I pick a stock, I focus on the current and future business of the company.  I look at earnings, cash flow, the balance sheet, the dividend, stock buybacks, and the earnings growth rate.  I am interested in the business model and future prospects of the company.

And finally, I compare each investment choice to the available alternatives.  I often find myself in complete disagreement with the top Wall Street pundits, something that has worked well for me for many years.

There are currently many stocks that are very attractive according to this method.”

Both sides of the argument presented, pick your poison.