Proactive Helplessness

A Delta Airlines Airbus A330-323E landing on runway 18C at Schiphol.

Photo by "Gietje"

Thesis: This column discusses the systemic failure revolving around the Christmas Day bombing incident.

The Northwest Airlines Flight 253 bombing attempt, now known as the Christmas Day bombing attempt, shows us a situation in which all parties involved have remarkably failed. As someone who will be flying from New York to Arizona in early January, my optimism from going from 37° to 73° is disturbed by the knowledge that I am no safer in the air now than as I would have been on September 10th, 2001. The singular question asked about this incident is “Who messed up?” That list is longer than you think.

The only person out of this entire incident who acted and reacted properly and as a hero, was Jasper Schuringa, the Dutch passenger who tackled and overpowered the suspect. Of all the headache from air travel, none of the security measures did a thing to prevent the bombing. Jasper demonstrated that as rulers of our own fate, we have the most power in stopping potential terrorists.

1. Schiphol Airport (Amsterdam, Netherlands) and Northwest Airlines, for failing to properly screen Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the would-be bomber. Not only was he able to pass through the security checks, but Kurt Haskell, a confirmed passenger of the flight, witnessed Umar board the plane without a passport.

2. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for engaging in security theater, which is the practice of adopting security counter-measures intended to provide the feeling of improved security, while doing almost nothing to actually improve security.

According to the New York Times, flights are now federally mandated to prohibit passengers from moving out of their seats during the last hour of a flight even if the passenger needs to use the restroom, which has already caused problems for flights that last only an hour. In addition, there is a good chance of needing to use it as the December 27th incident shows us, in which a man was thought to be a terrorist when he occupied the restroom for more than an hour and was verbally abusive to the crew ordering him out. It was later determined that he was a businessman who had fallen ill from food poisoning during the flight.

In addition to this policy, pillows and blankets are also prohibited in the last hour of a flight. It seems that they want me to be as uncomfortable as possible without actually making me safer. Why does the government follow this tradition of reactionary policy making, especially when none of these prohibitions would have done anything to prevent the bombing attempt? The would-be bomber was in his seat when he tried to detonate the explosive and the passenger who took him down got out of his seat to do it. In addition, the fire cause by the would-be bomber was put out by blankets, which are now limited. Furthermore, the restrictions for the last hour of the flight is meaningless for a terrorist who would bring down the plane at any point it is in the air.

Not content, the government wants passengers to die from boredom. Flights are now required to provide “no movies, no tv, no xm radio” according to a Jetblue audio recording. Even electronics that do not give signals are prohibited. There is no entertainment available other than a book. Airports are also restricting passengers to one carry-on each, even though the would-be bomber had no luggage.

The TSA equates hassle with safety. Empirically speaking, the best line of defense against airplane terrorism is the presence of alert and informed passengers.

3. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, for failing to detonate a bomb properly, causing no damage to the plane while setting himself on fire, suffering third-degree burns in the process.

The truth behind the War on Terror is that there are not as many terrorists as the war would have you believe. Since 9/11, we have only encountered lone cranks who fancy themselves holy warriors, but they are not terrorists. But “terrorist” has such a nice ring to it. The same way a successful film gives rise to B-grade imitations, the 9/11 attacks have prompted amateur attempts. This is why I refer to Umar as a would-be bomber, rather than a terrorist because he was trying to fulfill his own ego instead of solely carrying out a political message.

Aside from improperly detonating the bomb, causing him to catch fire, the would-be bomber was also unintelligent enough to use 80 grams of pentaerythritol tetranite (PETN), a powerful explosive, but as a bomb, it is difficult to detonate properly. According to ABC News, a government test indicated that 50 grams of PETN is sufficient to bring down an airliner, yet it has yet to be successfully detonated. Richard Reid, the “Shoe Bomber”, also tried to detonate PETN in an American Airlines flight in December 2001.

4. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a knock-off brand, for taking responsibility for this failed attack. Unless the goal was mass inconvenience, it should not lay claim to failure.

Conclusion: Life can be unpredictable at times. At the mercy of faceless government entities and terrorist organizations overseas, it is difficult to asses the the gap between the perceived threat and the real threat. Yet in a political environment that has not yet fully recovered from terrorist attacks in 2001, passengers on planes recognize that they should place less trust in the government and more trust in themselves.

Works Cited

Allahpundit. “Video: Is it time for airport security to start profiling?” Web log post. Hot Air. 28 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://hotair.com/archives/2009/12/28/video-is-it-time-for-airport-security-to-start-profiling/>.

Bandow, Doug. “TSA: Inconvenience in Place of Vigilance.” Web log post. The American Spectator. 26 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://spectator.org/blog/2009/12/26/tsa-inconvenience-in-place-of>.

Bordeaux, Don. “Reasoning with the TSA.” Web log post. Cafe Hayek. 7 Jan. 2010. Web. 7 Jan. 2010. http://cafehayek.com/2010/01/reasoning-with-the-tsa.html

Cavanaugh, Tim. “Open Thread: TSA To Keep Us Safe From Nigerian Terrorists, Bankers’ Sons, 419 Scammers.” Web log post. Reason. Reason Magazine, 26 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://reason.com/blog/2009/12/26/open-thread-tsa-to-keep-us-saf>.

Hickey, Andrew. “TSA-Holes: New Rules Make Air Travel Even More Annoying.” Web log post.The Brooklyn Nomad. 28 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://www.thebrooklynnomad.com/tsa-holes-new-rules-make-air-travel-even-more-annoying/>.

Hoft, Jim. “Nigerian Terrorist Tries to Explode Powdery Substance Aboard Northwest Flight From Amsterdam to Detroit.” Web log post. First Things. 25 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2009/12/nigerian-terrorist-tries-to-explode-powdery-substance-aboard-northwest-flight-from-amsterdam-to-detroit/>.

Ingram, Chris. “The Nigerian terrorist incident proves it: Airport security measures are window dressing.” Web log post. Creative Loafing. 28 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://blogs.creativeloafing.com/dailyloaf/2009/12/28/the-nigerian-terrorist-incident-proves-it-airport-security-measures-are-window-dressing/>.

Johnson, Larry. “TSA’s Illusion of Security.” Web log post. No Quarter. 25 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/2009/12/25/tsas-illusion-of-security/>.

Somin, Ilya. “Assessing Airport Security Measures.” Web log post. The Volokh Conspiracy. 27 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://volokh.com/2009/12/27/assessing-airport-security-measures/>.

“Passengers stopped Nigerian terrorist from hijacking plane.” Web log post. CyTalk Blog. Cy.Talk News Blog, 26 Dec. 2009. Web. 29 Dec. 2009. <http://blog.cytalk.com/2009/12/passengers-stopped-nigerian-terrorist-from-hijacking-plane/>.

Original Appearances of External Data Visuals and Media

1) Cover image from Wikimedia.

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U.S. Foreign Policy: Time to Plant Olive Trees in China’s Backyard

 

By Addelyn Rubino

This column asserts that the People’s Republic of China’s emergence as a global power is a direct threat to the United States of America’s national security, economic prosperity, and role as the world’s leader.  In defense of this view, discussion is focused on China’s human rights abuses, militarization, economic growth, and geopolitical movements.  With this in mind, the author proposes that the United States take several steps to improve strategic relations with select nations bordering China for the purpose of political leverage.

I. Introduction: The United States of America’s Global Leadership Role

Shortly after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it became unquestionably clear that the United States of America had eluded the lion’s share of World War 2’s unprecedented damage, and emerged a superpower.  In light of the rapid technological and economic developments America had undergone during and after the post-war period, the country’s borders had transformed themselves into gates which opened into the kingdom of heaven.  The nation was not only recognized as the land of abundance and prosperity, but was also given the great responsibility of acting as the world’s sole guardian and protectorate.  Uncle Sam even established himself as the de facto policeman of the global community, orchestrating everything from the international flow of wealth, to the political affairs of any one nation.

Within the last half century, the United States has created and defended its economic and political hegemony by promoting the ideals of free market capitalism and constitutionally liberal democracy.  These healthy values diffused themselves through American led, international organizations, such as the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the G7,i the Paris Club, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, as well as, the vast array of administrative bodies within the United Nations.  As a result, national economies were integrated into a globalized network of interdependence on trade, foreign direct and financial investment, innovation of ideas and technology, as well as, the culture and human capital brought by the immigration of foreign people and firms.  These international gatherings also allowed America to lead efforts in regulating globalization so that no nation would be excluded from an equitable slice of the economic pie.

There is no question that the United States of America is still the engine of the world’s economy, exalting the globe into prosperity during a boom, and grounding it during a bust.  By wholeheartedly immersing itself into the process of globalization quicker than any other nation, America steadily developed itself into the world’s single largest trading partner (See Graph 1).  In fact, the “U.S. economy is for most economies their first trading partner and has remained so for the last 25 years.  Even for countries that do not trade so much with the U.S., they are influenced by its dominance through other partners’ trade” [1]. Because America wields such an immense influence within the world’s economy, the global community must logically cede all responsibility and directive control to the discretion of this nation.  A practical question to ask is what the United States offers, and will continue to offer by its leadership.  Lael Brainard and David Lipton, authors of “Can America Still Lead the Global Economy,” point to two fundamental international economic goals the United States has.  The first, foremost, and most obvious objective the U.S. has is to “promote prosperity for all Americans” [2].  Nevertheless, the second is to “stop globalization from transforming into a negative sum game by taking action to prevent economic, financial, climate, and security instability” [3] from wrecking the lives of all residents of the world, regardless of nationality.  Before America continues onward with its benevolent mission of global leadership, it must first prevail over a very threatening obstacle which may impede it from accomplishing its goals; this hindrance is the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

II. Why is the People’s Republic of China a Threat to the U.S.A.?

a) Brief Background: China’s Metamorphosis through Globalization

Since Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms, which were put in place from the late 1970s onwards, China has benefitted from a robust, yet unsettling rate of economic growth.  Xiaoping was a fierce critic of the ever infamous Chairman Mao Zedong, mainly because of his complete and total lack of economic pragmatism. Mao’s enforcement of a highly disorganized and isolated command economy was a clear disaster, and Xiaoping had the foresight to understand why.  Deng’s guiding philosophy was that “capitalist techniques can be put to good use in a socialist economy,” which would enable China to benefit from a “greater reliance on market forces” [4].  Under Deng Xiaoping’s vision, farmers were given partial pricing and equity incentives that allowed them to sell a fraction of their crops on the open market.  Additionally, special economic zones (SEZs) were created to attract foreign investment, boost exports, and import advanced technology, which in turn generated efficient productivity [5].  Even economic direction and control was decentralized, leaving provincial governments in charge of various enterprises for the purpose of competition through the laws of the free market. Most notably, coastal regions and cities were allowed to test free market reforms and to offer tax and trade incentives to encourage both foreign and domestic investment.  Eventually, state price controls on many goods were seen as obsolete and counterproductive, leading to their disposal [6].

Keeping in mind that China was once a floundering and globally detached failure, Deng’s reforms were a major blessing that triggered China’s economic growth and acceptance of globalization.  China has evolved into “the country that sends missions throughout the world seeking best practice.  It adapts not just foreign technology and foreign corporate management techniques but also a wide variety of foreign institutions and practices: international accounting standards; British, U.S. and Hong Kong securities laws; French military acquisition systems; a central bank structure modeled on the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank; Taiwan-style regulations for foreign portfolio investment; an economic development strategy adapted from South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan; and many others” [7].  China’s economic advances are reflected by its gross domestic product (GDP), which is comparable to the likes of the United States of America (See Graph 2).  In 2008, its GDP was calculated at over 4.4 trillion dollars, over 2,391 percent more than it was in 1979.  Even though China’s GDP is still less than a third of the United States’ GDP, its growth rate should draw more attention.  Beginning with 2001, the year of its controversial admission into the World Trade Organization, China’s GDP growth rate averaged over an astonishing 10 percent right through all of 2008.  This growth rate is truly remarkable for two reasons.  The first is because the reality of this growth is in spite of two incidents of global economic turmoil during this period; the relatively softer instance during the early 2000s, as well as the devastating global financial crisis that began in 2007.  The second reason is because during the same period, the United States of America only managed an average GDP growth rate of just 3 percent.

Although globalization has undoubtedly contributed to the diversification of wealth around the world, it has also created an opportunity for irresponsible nations to carry out their self interests at the expense of the international social interests.  Unfortunately, China has taken the path of the irresponsible nation, proving itself to be a dissident element within the global community.  Ranging anywhere from domestic social abuses to international political impudence, the list of its misdemeanors runs far past what any citizen of the world (especially American citizens) should have to tolerate.  Furthermore, China’s potential to use its military, economy, and juvenile-like diplomacy to advance its ambitions, should raise fear among each and every civilized society.  Before the United States of America begins its crusade of leading the world in solving the crisis of China, it must first acknowledge how deep this dragon’s claws impale, and the deadliness of its flames.

b) Human Rights in Today’s China

When examining China’s potential to breach world harmony, it is vital that the United States first recognizes the oppressive reality of life under the Communist Party of China.  After all, a disregard for the universal social contract of freedoms is incongruent with America’s call for liberty.  Although the topic of civil rights may appear to be a domestically isolated predicament in China, it should actually be interpreted as a precursor to how the PRC government will treat fellow nations in the future.  In fact, the issue of human rights has been a principle area of U.S. concern in its relations with the country, especially since the violent government crackdown of the Tiananmen Square demonstration in 1989 [8].Considering that the 2008 Summer Olympic Games were hosted in Beijing, a reasonable individual would conclude that China has transformed itself into a nation of freedom and liberal democracy.  However, the colorful and blissful display of the 2008 Beijing Olympics was simply a guise to shadow the malicious environment the people of China are plagued with.  According to the United States Department of State’s Human Rights Report for 2008 (will simply be referred to as the “Rights Report” hereinafter), the Chinese government continues “to monitor, harass, detain, arrest, and imprison journalists, writers, activists, and defense lawyers and their families, many of whom were seeking to exercise their rights under the law.”

The Rights Report meticulously records the Chinese government’s disrespect for the integrity of human life.  For instance, it mentions Wei Wenhua, an amateur Chinese journalist, who on January 7th of 2008 was beaten to death by urban management officials in the Hubei province for filming a protest by local residents on his cellular phone [9]. Not surprisingly, this unlawful deprivation of human life yielded unusually short prison terms for only 4 officials who had played roles in Wenhua’s murder (there were 41 officials detained for questioning).  Torture and other cruel forms of treatment are also referenced within the Rights Report, including beatings, electric shocks, and shackles.  One notable name it linked to the issue of torture was Liu Jie, a Chinese human rights defender.  Jie was arrested on October 11th of 2007 for distributing a public letter, signed by 12,150 petitioners in favor of human rights reforms in China [10]. While Jie was in prison, she was beaten so horrifically that there was a life-threatening deterioration in her health, both physically and psychologically. On August 15th of 2008, during Jie’s detention in Harbin Drug Rehabilitation Center, she was forced to sit on a dreadful torture device known as the “Tiger Bench” for seven consecutive days.  The cases of Wei Wenhua and Liu Jie are drops in an ocean of wicked acts committed by Chinese authorities.  According to the United States Congressional-Executive Commission on China, 900 people were serving prison terms for activities related to calls of reform [11]. In addition, Chinese government data documents that 742 people were arrested for “endangering state security” in 2007, a bogus charge to say the least; that figure more than doubled to 1600 unlucky souls in 2008 [12].  As if this is not ruthless enough, the Rights Report also refers to Mao Qunan, China’s Ministry of Health spokesman, who in January 2007 acknowledged that the Chinese government harvested organs from executed prisoners.

Interference with the sacred human right to privacy, family, and home, by the Chinese Communist Party are also discussed within the Rights Report as almost nonexistent.  As an example, during the preparation and construction for the Summer Olympics, there were numerous reports that people were forcibly evicted from their homes in Beijing; infrastructure and commercial projects also resulted in the forced relocation of millions of homeowners in the rural areas of China [13].  This disregard for a person’s right to privacy, family, and home also manifests itself in the Chinese government’s restrictions on childbirth.  China’s childbirth policies are so vile and sinister that government officials are “subject to rewards or penalties based on meeting the population goals set by their administrative region”[14]. More often than not, countless unspeakable crimes erupt out of this barbaric policy.  To illustrate, in March of 2008, family-planning officials in the Henan province forcibly detained a 23-year-old woman who was seven months pregnant, tied her to a bed, procured the birth, and then killed the newborn [15].  Given that Chinese government officials use “criminal prosecution, civil lawsuits, and other punishments, including violence, detention, and other forms of harassment, to intimidate authors and domestic journalists” [16], it is not hard to imagine why similar, future unthinkable crimes will not be prevented by people with no free speech or press which may not freely print.

Of course, a lashing of the Chinese government for its domestic human rights transgressions would be incomplete without mentioning their hostile relationship with the noble Dalai Lama.  The Chinese Communist Party’s hatred for the Dalai Lama is immature, senseless, and unfounded.  For instance, during the March 2008 demonstrations in Tibet, official reports from the Chinese government referred to diverse Tibetan organizations as the “Dalai clique,” suggesting that they were all under an evil spell by the Dalai Lama [17]. The comedy continues, as on March 18 of 2008, the Communist Party Secretary of Tibet maliciously labeled the Dalai Lama as “a wolf in [a] monk’s robe, [and] a devil with a human face but the heart of a beast” [18].  However, because the United States of America’s enduring commitment to justice, the 109th Congress awarded the divine figure with the Congressional Gold Medal on October 17th, 2007 [19].

c) The Growing Might of China’s Armed Forces

Given the coldblooded mind-set of the Chinese Communist Party towards its own citizens, one can only imagine the potential carnage and havoc that may arise out of the escalating power and strategic capability of China’s military.  The United States Department of Defense (DOD), in their 2009 Annual Report to Congress, entitled Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (will simply be referred to as the “Military Report” hereinafter), have determined that the China Communist Party’s enduring priorities for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) include carrying on government rule, “sustaining economic growth and development, maintaining domestic political stability, defending China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and securing China’s status as a great power.” These missions for the PLA itself should not be a source of any concern, as any rational nation with borders worth protecting would assume similar if not exact objectives.  However, what the United States should be alarmed about is how, to what extent, and at what cost the PLA will turn the world into a standoffish environment, ripe enough for the panoply of war.  Unfortunately, the PLA does not publicly circulate information on its military, security, or defense strategies to the same extent in openness of the U.S. Department of Defense.  This lack of transparency inevitably leads to a miscommunication of intentions on the part of the Chinese, not just toward the United States of America, but the entire world.  If the People’s Republic of China were sincere in maintaining their “peaceful rise” mantra, they would disclose virtually all globally requested information on the status of their armed forces.  Although the PLA is unusually secretive about its operations, the Military Report still manages to share insight on its strategies and capabilities.  The Chinese military is experiencing a rather disturbing transformation, as they have become more aggressive and advanced with their strategic concepts, as well as begun to lay the groundwork for a force capable of executing whatever the PRC’s global objectives may be.  The PLA’s adoption of an inventive doctrine for “active defense” [20] truly reflects the new landscape of China’s armed forces.  Although the policy’s phrasing may sound relatively pacifistic, the Military Report points out that the PLA’s “active defense” policy is rather tortuous in nature because it promotes offense as defense.  In other words, the policy would justify preemptive “military action at the operational and tactical level under the guise of a defensive posture at the strategic level” [21].  The hazard in this is that China may seize initiatives for armed strikes in situations where perceived enemies challenge or irritate it, solely on a political playing field.

The PLA has drawn upon U.S. led military experience, including Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom, as well as Russian military theory, to revolutionize outdated combat models as part of their doctrine for active defense [22].  For example, the army has disposed of their traditional strategy of warfare that focuses on attrition (i.e. using hordes of soldiers as human shields).  Instead, it has employed a model of “information-plus-firepower” [23], whereby the logistics and tactics of informatized ground forces are integrated into a joint-force stratagem that include the air-force, navy, and every resource the PLA has to take control of any given battlefield.  Furthermore, the Military Report states that the PLA has been speedily upgrading military equipment and artillery for its nearly 1.25 million ground personnel, a gang that has transitioned from having a static defense capability, into a highly mobile, offensive, and maneuver-oriented force.

With about 75 principal combatants, 55 amphibious ships, and over 60 submarines, the PLA Navy has also been entrusted with concrete strategic guidelines for conducting warfare, in spirit of the so-called active defense [24].  Most notable is their mandates for blockading ports, cutting lines of communications between vessels, as well as, maritime-land attack and obliteration of ships.  If the tasks of the PLA’s Navy hardly sound defensive in nature, the size and purpose of the PLA’s air-force are even more surprising for it seems purely offensive.  The Military Report records that the Chinese air-force has almost 500 combat aircrafts, and already has the airfield capacity to expand that number by hundreds more.  Under false pretense, this same missile-equipped horde of flying sparklers has been deemed defensive on paper, but is actually trained to annihilate adversary bases and naval forces at the operational level [25].

In addition to innovating military strategy, the Chinese government has recently been investing an immense amount of domestic monetary resources, political capital, and foreign knowledge in their pursuit to modernize their military technology.  For 2008, Beijing stated that their official military budget was valued at approximately $60 billion dollars [26].  However, this figure is clearly too minuscule to be accepted as the truth, and therefore, should be interpreted as an under-reported amount.  The Military Report presents more realistic figures for 2008, estimating China’s actual military expenditures to have been valued at between $105 and $150 billion dollars.  Given the PLA’s size and its government’s wealth, it is not difficult to envisage China’s real military expenditures to be far greater than the Department of Defense’s estimates due to the murkiness in the army’s accounting.

Considering the perpetually changing scene of modern warfare, it is apparent that the Chinese military is most likely concentrating the bulk of their resources in missile and space technology.  Regrettably, the world has allowed China to develop the most active land-based ballistic and cruise missile program on the face of this planet [27].  The PLA’s qualitative and quantitative advances in strategic missile technology are most reflected by China’s inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) nuclear forces.  Of the approximately 60 ICBMs the PLA has in its nuclear arsenal [28], the Dong Feng 31A (DF-31A) is by far the most threatening to U.S. national security.  While the U.S. Department of Defense records that the inventory of DF-31As total to less than 10 missiles, it should be noted that the DF-31A has a range of around 7000 miles, capable of penetrating any location within the continental United States of America.  Although the PLA has a colossal assortment of theatre ballistic missiles having respectable range and damage-toll capabilities, the DF-31A stands out most because it characterizes China’s shift away from extremely vulnerable, liquid fueled missiles that can only be fired from stationary locations, to solid-fueled missiles that are highly flexible, survivable, and road-mobile [29].  The Military Report states the DF-31A is also an indicator of China’s heavy research on nuclear capable missiles that can act as maneuvering re-entry vehicles and multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, technologies that can change a missile’s target while in the air, and carry multiple nuclear warheads on a single ICBM.  Along with China’s progress with their missile systems, it is also important to take note of China’s dangerously, yet rapidly growing infiltration of space.  “China views the development of space and counterspace capabilities as bolstering national prestige, and like nuclear weapons, demonstrating the attributes of a great power” [30].  According to the Military Report, many of China’s space programs are administered by the PLA.  Naturally, it is reasonable to assume the PLA will do nothing more than integrate the space technology it has acquired or developed, and use it for war related applications.  On September 25th, 2008, China became the third nation, after the United States of America and Russia, to successfully accomplish a spacewalk from a rocketship [31].  In light of this manned space program achievement, the Department of Defense is sensible in assuming that the rocket and control system capabilities required for the space shuttle used, the Shenzou-7, may in fact have uses for ballistic missile improvement.  Additionally, the Shenzou-7 deployed a small satellite for monitoring space equipment, but as the Military Report points out, it may actually be used to support counterspace activities.  This theory is not outlandish in the least given that China has already begun “deploying advanced imagery, reconnaissance, and Earth resource systems with military” (32) functions since the year 2000.  In addition to the disquieting strides of China’s manned space program, the Military Report discusses China’s ability to neutralize space-based assets of other nations.  On January 11, 2007, China successfully launched an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile against one of its own weather satellites [33], exhibiting its ability to raze foreign equipment stationed in space [34].  The Military Report points out that this event proves the “PLA’s interest in counterspace systems is more than theoretical,” clearly indicating China’s ambitions to develop laser, high-powered microwave, and particle beam weapons for ASAT missions.  Because of the PRC’s silence on the issue, the global community should be highly concerned with the security implications of this brazen militarization of space.  Situations might arise where the PLA may covertly jam or entirely destroy civilian space communication bands and GPS receivers because of political tension.

China’s missile and space programs clearly define the aspirations for its armed forces. However, China’s desperation for military supremacy is best characterized by their recent breaches of ethical and legal boundaries.  It should come as no surprise that “of all foreign intelligence organizations attempting to penetrate U.S. agencies, China’s are the most aggressive” [35].  For instance, on September 24th, 2008, Shu Quansheng, a renowned physicist, was arrested for violating the United States Arms Export Control Act by illegally providing the Chinese government with technical data and developmental designs on cryogenic fueling systems for space launch vehicles [36]. This incident is alarming because Quansheng is a Chinese born, naturalized American citizen, who was a pawn of PRC espionage from 2003 to 2008.  More shocking is the case of Chi Mak, who was an engineer for a defense contractor, sentenced to over 24 years in prison for providing the Chinese government with sensitive information on U.S. Naval ships, submarines, and high-tech weapons [37].  In sharp contrast to the 5 years Quansheng spent spying for China, the PRC planted Mak in the U.S. for an astounding 2 decades.  Given the cases of Shu Quansheng and Chi Mak, one can only imagine how many more PRC secret agents are burrowing for military secrets, yet pretending to be honorable Americans, have been lodged within the shadows of the United States of America.

d) China’s Economic Gunpowder

Of course, the People’s Republic of China’s massive military buildup would not have been possible were it not for the extraordinary size and success of its economy.  Proof of China’s disturbing growth is reflected by the expansion of its merchandise exports and inward foreign direct investment; both have in turn led to the country’s ever skyrocketing treasure chest of foreign exchange reserves (See Graph 3).  In 1979, at the onset of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms, China’s merchandise exports were measured to be a mere 13.614 billion U.S. dollars.ii However, the year 2008 saw China’s exports grow to over 1.428 trillion dollars in value, surpassing even those of America’s.  In fact, China currently holds the position of being the world’s second largest exporter of goods, cutting the United States down to third place.  Unfortunately, China even looks poised to usurp Germany’s title of the world’s largest exporter of goods, exporting just over 1.466 trillion dollars worth of merchandise in the year 2008.iii The rate of growth in China’s inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is also shocking.  In 1979, its inward FDI flows was a joke, valued at a comical 80 thousand dollars.  By 2008, China benefitted from a net FDI inflow worth 92.4 billion dollars; that would be more than a 115 million percent increase over a period of less than 30 years.  The developments in China’s export base and inward FDI inflows have been major contributing factors to its massive foreign exchange reserves, a concerning issue not just for the United States of America, but also for every nation that trades with this Asian giant.  To stress the gravity of this issue, it should be noted that China holds by far the most foreign exchange reserves.  For the first time in 2006, its foreign exchange reserves zipped past the value of 1 trillion dollars, simultaneously supplanting the mighty Japan as the world’s single largest holder of foreign exchange reserves.  The People’s Bank of China shook the world again when it reported that in April of 2009, these reserves had accumulated to a value of over 2 trillion dollars.

Although China’s economic rise should be interpreted as America’s overall decline, it is important to first distinguish what is, and what is not, threatening about this rapid growth.  The nature of the bi-lateral trade relationship between the U.S. and China is a major source of contention for many Americans.  Lyrics to their grievances often contain accusations that the PRC government artificially devalues its currency (the “Yuan”), as well as provides subsidies and dumping opportunities to domestic industries.  Supposedly, these practices have been major underlying reasons behind the unusually large current-account deficits the U.S. has with China, as well as the loss of domestic American manufacturing jobs.  Without attempting to touch, and to an even greater extent, defuse the entire debate of whether or not China employs unfair trade policies, it is best to leave the topic alone.  Nevertheless, it is historically clear that America’s dollar-valued imports from China far outstrip its dollar-valued exports to China, leading to an excessively unbalanced trade gap (See Graph 4).  This reality has both positive and negative factors attached to it.  Given the extravagant and fiscally frivolous character of the archetypical American consumer, the ongoing U.S.-China trade deficits should not be considered a problem if an undervalued Yuan, cost cutting subsidies, and dumping practices are the reasons behind it.  The rationale behind this conjecture is more obvious than not: Americans want the best products possible at the cheapest possible prices, and China has for a long-time assumed the position as the world’s Nike factory.  As a result, American consumers benefit from lower domestic inflation because of inexpensive products manufactured on the toiling backs of China’s wretched citizens.  Second, if China actually does engage in such practices it would imply that its goods-production industry’s trade advantage is most likely built on weak and uncompetitive foundations.  Thirdly, and most importantly, considering that almost 23 percent of China’s global merchandise exports found their way onto America’s shores in 2008, Americans should be proud of the trade dependence they have locked the PRC into.

On the other hand, America’s trade deficits with China are only undisruptive to the extent that China does not stray away from manufacturing products that are solely low and mid-technology type merchandise.  To explain why, it is best to envisage how a stable microcosmic society may function economically in regard to its residents.  These residents are essentially workers, each having one instrumental talent that may be efficiently capitalized on.  As a result, each and every person benefits of one another’s skills.  This is not to say that these workers do not have other useful abilities. Rather, it is rational to assume that because of certain opportunity costs and production possibilities, each individual can really only make for an efficient marketplace when there is a division of labor and specialization.  However, the soundness of this society becomes threatened when it allows multi-talented or all-knowledgeable visitors to penetrate their gates.  Soon enough, the original residents of that community will have had their positions stolen, talents invalidated, and purpose of life absolutely ruined beyond repair.  This same concept applies to national economies within the global community, in which there should be one talent, or economic comparative advantage, per country.  China’s overall economic comparative advantage lies within its labor intensive industries.  These industries export simple technology that ranges anywhere from apparel to eyeglasses, goods contributing to the great bulk of America’s trade deficit with the PRC.  As previously stated, this part of the deficit should not be considered a problem.  Conversely, it is fair to say that when China focuses its resources on exporting products to the U.S. that are derived from advanced and capital-intensive industries, this same trade deficit becomes a threat to America’s economic security.  The reason for this is because the U.S. specializes in manufacturing advanced technology products (ATP)iv for both export and domestic consumption. An argument may even be made that the advanced technology industries truly give the America its economic edge due to the immense amount of financial capital, human capital, and research capacity they nationally employ.  U.S. ATP trade related to biotechnology, aerospace, nuclear technology, information and communication systems, and a selection of sophisticated electronics, are an extremely vital element in America’s portfolio of exports.  To put this into perspective, the U.S. Census Bureau’s foreign trade data shows that from 2001 to 2008, America’s ATP exports were consistently valued at over 20 percent of its total world exports.  With this time frame in mind, it should be noted that the year 2001 is an extremely crucial starting point for discussing U.S. ATP trade in regard to China.  There are two reasons for this.  The first reason is because 2001 was the year China breached the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) gates, allowing it to benefit from lower trade barriers, as well as greater opportunities for developmental investment.  Second, 2001 is also the last year the United States of America benefitted from a trade surplus in advanced technology products.  Narrowing the time period further, from 2002 through 2008, one would be curious to catch a glimpse at how U.S. trade in advanced technology fared in light of China’s WTO membership (See Graph 5).  Not surprisingly, from 2002 through 2008 the U.S. consistently suffered an ATP trade deficit with China for each and every year.  The unbearable aspect of this unfortunate reality is that America would have actually had an ATP trade surplus with the world if it did not trade advanced technology with China from 2005 through 2008.  In other words, China’s ATP trade deficit with the U.S. from 2005 through 2008 accounted for the entire advanced technology trade deficit the U.S. had with the whole world.  This trade relationship must not continue as is, for if it does, the United States of America will not be able to sustain its advanced technology industry for much longer.  China will have stolen the essence of America’s science and technology community that allows the U.S. to perpetuate marketable innovation.

To add to the reproachable trade relationship the United States has with China, there is also the concern of the ever growing foreign exchange reserves that China holds.  As of September 2009, the People’s Bank of China reported that it was holding over 2.272 trillion dollars worth of foreign exchange reserves, obviously in a basket of currencies.  A 2009 Brookings paper by Eswar Prasad and Isaac Sorkin, entitled “Sky’s the Limit? National and Global Implications of China’s Reserve Accumulation,” outlines how China accumulated its vast foreign exchange reserves, what the direct risks are to the U.S., and what China plans to do with these assets.  Prasad and Sorkin attribute the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves to three factors: current-account surpluses, capital account surpluses, and foreign direct investment.  However, both authors distinguish between the three causative factors by noting that “from 2004 to 2008, the current account surplus contributed 91 percent of the accumulation” [38].  As of August 2009, the U.S. Treasury reported that China held $797.1 billion, or almost 10.7 of the $7.484145 trillion in total outstanding treasury security debt held by the public.  Although the bulk of China’s U.S. dollar reserves are mostly concentrated in U.S. Treasury securities, as of March 2009 China also held $424 billion of U.S. agency debt, notably of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [39].  In sum, Prasad and Sorkin subscribe to widespread belief “that about 70 to 75 percent of China’s reserve assets are in fact held in dollar-denominated assets” [40].  Clearly, the U.S. government’s ability to borrow is to a great extent, tied to China’s demand for U.S. dollar related securities.  The trouble with this is that if China were to reduce its purchases of, or even dump, U.S. Treasuries and agency debt, the U.S. government would obviously face higher interest rates on its bonds.  A possibility of higher interest rates on U.S. debt implies that the American government’s illustrious blank check may not last forever.  In the long run, the U.S. government may eventually have to raise taxes to fill the gaps in spending that it would have once acquired by issuing debt securities with favorably low interest rates.  To further add to the fire, China’s loss in appetite for U.S. debt may result in a trigger effect of other nations and private entities following suit.  Consequentially, the United States would lose its seigniorage over the world’s de facto reserve currency, which is currently the U.S. dollar.

Taking into consideration all the possible repercussions that China’s economic growth has on the U.S., the most problematic is the sheer size of China’s labor force.  In 2008, China was recorded as having a labor force of over 807 million people, significantly larger than that of the U.S., with a little over 154 million people.  Still, it is important to take note that the average American is still considered much wealthier than the average Chinese citizen.  Using gross national income per capita as an indicator of wealth, Americans were measured to have a purchasing power parity of $46,970 in 2008 [41].  In sharp contrast, China’s gross national income per capita produced a purchasing power parity of a mere $6020 for its citizens in 2008 [42].  Although China’s per capita purchasing power parity figure of $6020 seems small, what is truly remarkable is that this figure is a 171 percent increase than that of the year 2000.  Given China’s rapid growth in per capita purchasing power parity over a period of just 8 years, as well as its massive workforce, the message is clear.  China will one day replace the United States of America as the consumer capital of the world.  Instead of multinational firms competing for a foothold to sell their goods and services within the saturated markets of the U.S., they will first look to the Chinese consumer.  If this should happen, the fate of America’s economy will have been sealed, marking the final chapter of its decline and fall.  The United States must recognize the only reason it commands the eyes and actions of each and every nation is because Americans are the world’s most valuable gluts.  Allowing the Chinese labor force to enjoy higher income, easily acquire consumer credit, and boost their standard of living, will amount to America’s final death blow.  Has the die already been cast?  Maybe Kevin Wale, President of General Motors China, was speaking for every globalized corporation, when he stated that “Within 10 years, [China] will be our largest market in the world” [43].

e) Beyond Borders

China’s economic rise is tightly coupled with its magnified position on the world stage.  Surprisingly, the legendary Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was the national security advisor to former President Jimmy Carter, “has advocated the development of a G-2, a group of two comprising China and the United States that could address the international financial crisis, tackle climate change, limit the proliferation of weapons” [44], and much more.  Although Brzezinski is a highly regarded statesman, his view of what American foreign policy to China should be is completely baseless.  The truth is that the United States of America is still a superpower, and therefore, any suggestion of global bipolarity should be interpreted as an assault on its throne.  Theoretically speaking, the world is a chessboard.  Any move that China decides to make outside its borders naturally effect how U.S. choices and agendas regarding foreign policy are shaped.  Because the United States is already at the pinnacle of its economic success, and China closer to its precipice, the relationship between the two nations obviously “derives from mismatched interests, values, and capabilities” [45].  Perceptibly, China’s global movements are most likely linked to its demand for natural resources and desire to access foreign markets.  However, the drawback to this is that as China asserts its influence, whether economic or political, America’s status as a global leader becomes diluted.  Although China may contend that it has no intention of establishing international supremacy, it is nevertheless a topic that deserves America’s watchful eye.

A notable illustration of how China has begun to emphasize its glorious new rank in the world is its foray into the continent of Africa.  Why would any regional power choose to establish ties with African countries except to drain their virtually endless well of natural resources?  It may sound brash, but the truth is that Africa is once again being colonized, and this time by China.   There is nothing wrong with imperialism.  However, for a country to imperialize an entire continent in today’s global economy, it needs money.  China is now extremely wealthy, and is using its fat wallet to sway the hearts and minds of Africa’s leaders with investment and trade.  For example, during the 2nd Conference for Chinese and Africa Entrepreneurs one major deal signed was “worth US$938m, for China’s state-owned CITIC conglomerate, to set up an aluminum plant in Egypt. There was also a new copper project, worth US$200m, in Zambia, along with plans to build a US$55m cement factory in Cape Verde.  A mining contract with South Africa, worth US$230m, was also announced” [46].  This is just a taste of the magnitude of China’s long term investment in Africa.  China’s insatiable appetite for natural resources, especially oil, has led to a burgeoning trade relationship with the continent.  “Eighty-five percent of Africa’s exports to China come from five oil-rich countries (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo, and Sudan), according to the World Bank. But Chinese interest in Africa extends beyond oil. China now ranks as the continent’s second-highest trading partner, behind the United States, and ahead of France and Britain. From 2002 to 2003, trade between China and Africa doubled to $18.5 billion; by 2007, it had reached $73 billion. Much of the growth was due to increased Chinese imports of oil from Sudan and other African nations, but Chinese firms also import a significant amount of non-oil commodities such as timber, copper, and diamonds” [47].

Without a doubt, African nations are ready and willing to capitalize off of the precious treasures buttered across the depths of their lands, and China is willing to pay handsomely.  However, there is a downside to Africa’s dependence on China for economic development.  China naturally sees Africa as a jar of chocolate chip cookies that it wants to eat itself without sharing the crumbs.  When discussing the imperialism of Africa from a game theoretic standpoint, foreign nations that are capable of imperialism have two pragmatic paths they can take based on each other’s choices.  Either every nation capable of imperialism guns to exploit the weak and innocent, or no nation capable of imperialism takes part in transgressing borders.  The fact is that every nation capable of imperialism does in fact imperialize frail states through trade, direct investment, financial investment, or military campaign.  For years, the United States of America and the regional powers of Europe have treated Africa as their backyard, and have effectively competed for the continent’s natural resources.  However, when a large competing player like China enters into this sport, with its large moneybags, the U.S. faces a problem.  This is especially concerning because China has already started to create a relationship with African states that is emblematic of a domineering master and his slave.

The case of Sudan serves as a perfect example of how dangerous an African country’s liaison with China truly is.  As a result of its objective to establish a secure source of oil, “China’s most successful African energy investment has been in Sudan” [48] with over 90 percent of its oil output going to China [49]. Reportedly, Sudan has 9 oil fields worth drilling, and 8 of them are majority held by Chinese state owned companies [50].  Given that oil is Sudan’s economic engine, Sudan’s financial stability is tightly bonded to China’s appetite for oil.  To add to this, China has even provided unconditional aid and loans to Sudan for infrastructure projects, totaling to over $1 billion [51].  Keep in mind that these are loans, not free money.  That means Sudan, being a poor and unstable country, would be in debt to China for over $1 billion.  One would think that Sudan is using the money it receives from its loans and oil profits to better its economy.  However, because China has made their trade and investment relationship with Sudan unconditional, it should come as no shock that a former Sudanese finance minister claimed that 70 percent or more of the oil profits translate into military expenditures that are linked to the conflict in Darfur [52].  It is obvious that small arms are probably the most proliferated and functional combat instrument for the warring militias in Darfur to carry out urban warfare.  Even so, China still found it necessary to sell 58$ million worth of small arms to Sudan from 2000 to 2006 [53].  Such a relationship is clearly beneficial to China as it has managed to turn Sudan into its personal puppet, as well as buy Sudanese oil for significantly discounted prices [54].  However, this Sino-Sudanese connection is also an emasculation of Uncle Sam because it unveils how little control the U.S. has in Africa.  To explain, China has consistently blocked the United Nations, and especially the U.S., in their efforts to impose sanctions on the Sudanese government for its role in the Darfurian genocide.  Because China is a member of the United Nations Security Council, it is obvious that China will most likely veto or water down any resolution that restricts investment and trade with Sudan.  China will probably also continue to do whatever possible to keep Western aid groups and combat troops from assuaging the situation in Darfur.  In March of 2009 the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Omar al Bashir, the infamous President of Sudan, for his direct involvement in the murder, rape, and deportation of civilians [55].  Shockingly, China requested a suspension of the arrest warrant even though Bashir was involved in the deaths and displacement of millions of people.

The case of China’s condemnable link with Sudan is not an isolated incident.  For instance, when the United States and the European Union imposed punitive sanctions on Zimbabwe’s crazed president, Robert Mugabe, for human rights and political abuses, China got involved.  Instead of supporting U.S. and E.U. calls for liberal democracy in Zimbabwe, China responded by selling $200 million worth of military aircraft and vehicle equipment to Mugabe’s government [56].  For the purpose of full discloser, it is important to mention that Zimbabwe has some of the world’s most lucrative platinum reserves, and China is probably greedily hoping to mine them.  As China continues to claw in individual African nations, the United States and the rest of the West will lose their rights to Africa all together.  There are already over 800 Chinese companies doing business in almost every African nation [57].  China seems to have even replaced the IMF, World Bank, Paris Club, and other international lending institutions as Africa’s loan shark.  To illustrate, during the November 2009’s Forum on China-Africa Co-operation, Chinese Premier Web Jiabao promised $10 billion in concessional loans to Africa, as well as an additional $1 billion for small businesses across the continent [58].  This is a serious problem for both the United States and European Union, as their brain children, the IMF and the World Bank, lose their purposes.  If the IMF and World Bank’s functions as creditors comes under threat, then America and the member states of the E.U. essentially lose their imperialistic stranglehold over weaker, economically unstable, yet resource rich nations.  China knows that in order to keep African countries on a short leash, it has to do what the IMF and World Bank do.  That is, control their balance sheets.

Aside from the West losing the continent of Africa, the United States should be significantly more concerned with China’s mushrooming ties with South America.  Since the establishment of the Monroe Doctrine in 1823, the United States has historically been the preeminent political and economic influence with Latin America.  Essentially, any foreign interference within Latin American affairs was viewed as an act of aggression that required America’s intervention.  This American policy was further amended for the better in 1904, when President Theodore Roosevelt included America’s right to involve itself in the economic affairs of South American countries.  However, these prerogatives the United States has over its southern brethren are currently being threatened by China’s own ambitions.  Like Africa, China views South America as a vital source of much needed natural resources, as well as an opportunity for its firms to expand overseas.  Although the United States does still have the upper hand over China in terms of trade with Latin America, China’s trade with the continent is flourishing at a much faster rate.  Given that Latin American countries have heavily export-reliant economies, the best measurement of the continent’s trade dependence should naturally be measured in terms of what country it exports most to (See Graph 6).  In 2008, Latin America and the Caribbean exported almost $370 billion in goods to the U.S., making it the trading group’s largest export market.  Latin America and Caribbean’s exports to China are significantly less, totaling lower than $45 billion in goods.  However, it is important to recognize that Latin America’s 2008 exports to China represent a 736.5 percent increase over 2001.  Moreover, China’s investments in Latin America are also shockingly hefty and undoubtedly politically motivated.  As The Economist writes, within 2009 “an agreement was signed under which the China Development Bank and Sinopec, a Chinese oil company, will lend Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, Petrobras, $10 billion in return for up to 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil for ten years from the country’s new deep-sea fields.  Weeks earlier China offered Argentina a currency-swap arrangement involving use of Yuan worth $10 billion, and lent cash-strapped Jamaica $138m to enable it to stave off a debt default.  Chinese companies have bought stakes in oilfields in Ecuador and Venezuela, and are talking of building a refinery in Costa Rica” [59].  In November 2008, China went so far as to sign a free trade agreement with Peru, which was probably the most invasive move it has made within America’s jurisdiction.

Given the frosty relationship the U.S. has with Hugo Chavez, many Americans view China’s connection with Venezuela as a threat to their national security.  However, it is important to keep in mind that Venezuela’s most integral instrument for keeping economic stability is its oil.  Given that the United States is the destination for “60 percent of Venezuela’s total exports” of oil, and that Venezuela’s state owned oil company, PDVSA, has large shareholding rights in 9 U.S. based refineries [60], it is safe to say that Venezuela is still America’s minion.  What is actually dangerous is Brazil’s bubbling love affair with China.  Fortunately for Brazil, it is well endowed with vast tracts of natural resources including bauxite, gold, manganese, nickel, phosphates, platinum, tin, uranium, oil, hydropower, timber, as well as its iron ore reserves that account for 22.5 percent of world supply [61].  These resources are coupled with Brazil’s economic growth and political ambitions, and as a result, it is increasingly replacing the United States as South America’s new sheriff.  China is clearly exploiting this regional power shift at the expense of the United States.  In 2008, Brazil exported almost $16.5 billion worth of goods to China [62], or 8% of its total exports, making China an extremely important trading partner.  There are serious drawbacks for the United States as Brazil and China’s economies become ever more intertwined.  Maybe the following statement by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will put it into perspective: “Why do two important countries like China and Brazil have to use the dollar as a reference, instead of our own currencies?  It’s crazy that the dollar is the reference, and that you give a single country the power to print that currency.  We need to give greater value to the Chinese and Brazilian currencies” [63].

Although China’s geopolitical assertions in Africa and South America serve as the most prolific examples of its global movements, they only amount to but a fraction of the dragon’s international presence.  After all, China has handcuffed Australia’s economy as it drains the Pilbara region dry of its vast mineral deposits.  China has created opportunities for Europe so worthwhile, that each and every member of the European Union would slit each other’s throats for a chance to gain a more favorable relationship with it.  It is so cunning that even as the United States of America has spent nearly 7 years occupying Iraq, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation was the first to win an auction to develop one of Iraq’s largest oil fields [64].  It has become so arrogant that during a speech by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Chinese college students openly laughed as he told them China’s holdings of U.S. Dollar assets were safe [65].  Clearly, China has grown far too powerful for the United States of America to sit on the sidelines and watch as its authority is being challenged by East Asian muscle flexing.

IV. The Solution (Coming Soon!)

Notes

i .The G7 is not to be confused with the G8.  The G7 consists of the Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, and the United States.  For further information, see “The Group of Eight (G8) Industrialized Nations” by Stephanie Lee and Alexandra Silver, Council on Foreign Affairs, 2009

ii. Unless otherwise stated, “Dollar” is to be understood interchangeably as “U.S. Dollar.”

iii. Some sources state the European Union is the world’s largest exporter.  However, the European Union is not a country, rather, a membership of countries.  According to the United Nations Statistics Division, Germany is the world’s largest exporting country as of the year 2008.

iv. The general ATP definitions are on the U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics.  See http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/reference/glossary/a/atp.html

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[43] Powell, Bill. “The Other GM.” Time. Time Inc., 18 May 2009. Web. 09 Sept. 2009.   <http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1896626,00.html>

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves. Raw data. People’s Bank of China. Note: Found at  http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/

[65] Rockwell, Lew. “Go, Chinese Students.” Web log post. The LRC Blog. 1 June 2009. Web. 09 Nov. 2009. <http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/027031.html>.

[64] Wang, Brian. “Rumaila Oilfield Deal Signed in Iraq.” Web log post. Next Big Future. Lifeboat Foundation, 17 Oct. 2009. Web. 09 Nov. 2009. <http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/10/iraqi-government-has-approved-deal-with.html>.

[63] “Infiation, Deflation, and Printing Money in the UK.” Web log post. Cynicus Economicus. 19 May 2009. Web. 09 Nov. 2009. <http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009/05/inflation-deflation-and-printing-money.html>.

[36] Rocket Scientist Sentenced to Prison.” Web log post. The FCPA Blog. 8 Apr. 2009. Web. 2 Sept. 2009. <http://fcpablog.blogspot.com/2009/04/rocket-scientist-sentenced-to-prison.html>.

[58] “Wen Jiabao speech: Building China-Africa Strategic Partnership.” Web log post. Hands Off China. 9 Nov. 2009. Web. 10 Nov. 2009. <http://handsoffchina.org/2009/11/wen-jiabao-speech-building-china-africa-strategic-partnership/>.

[50] [51] [52] [53] Investing in Tragedy: China’s Money, Arms, and Politics in Sudan. Rep. Human Rights First, Mar. 2008. Web. 09 Sept. 2009. <http://www.humanrightsfirst.info/pdf/080311-cah-investing-in-tragedy-report.pdf>.

[10] “China: Renewed torture of human rights defender Liu Jie while undergoing re-education through labour.” Front Line Protection of Human Rights Defenders. International Foundation for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders, 26 Aug. 2008. Web. 09 Sept. 09. <http://www.frontlinedefenders.org/node/1548>.

World Economic and Financial Surveys. Raw data. International Monetary Fund. Note: Found at http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=41

[62] Trade Data. Raw data. International Trade Centre. Note: Found at http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/welcome.htm

[18] Rising, Lhasa. “A bit of humour for China’s viceroy in Tibet.” Web log post. Students for a Free Tibet. Students for Free Tibet, 19 Mar. 2008. Web. 12 Sept. 2009. <http://blog.studentsforafreetibet.org/?p=909>.

FDI Stat. Raw data. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.  Note: Found at http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=1923

Commodity Trade Statistic Database. Raw data. United Nations Statistics Division.  Note: Found at http://comtrade.un.org/

[20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [32] [34] [35] United States of America. United States Department of Defense. Secretary Of Defense. Military Power of the People’s Republic of China. United States Department of Defense, 2009. Www.defense.gov. United States Department of Defense, 25 Mar. 2009. Web. 02 Sept. 2009. <http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf>.

[13] [14] [15] [16] United States of America. Department of State. 2008 Human Rights Report: China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau). United States Department of State, 25 Feb. 2009. Web. 8 Aug. 2009. <http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/eap/119037.htm>.

U.S. Treasury and Agency Debt Data. Aug. 2009. Raw data. Note: Found at http://treasurydirect.gov/govt/govt.htm

Trade Data. Raw data. U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division. Note: Found at http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/

Foreign Direct Investment in China. Raw data. United States-China Business Council. Note: Found at

http://www.uschina.org/statistics/fdi_cumulative.html

[59] “The dragon in the backyard.” The Economist 13 Aug. 2009. The Economist. The Economist Newspaper Limited, 13 Aug. 2009. Web. 09 Nov. 2009. <http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_TQNDJJPN>.

World Development Indicators. Raw data. World Bank Group Note: Found at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers&userid=1&queryId=135

[41] [42] World Bank Group. Raw Data. Note: Found at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.pdf

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Homeownership: Good for You, Better for Me

Visual by "aggiefan6"

Visual by "aggiefan6"

This column discusses how the  Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 compelled banking institutions to provide subprime mortgages to an increased number of customers failed to  provide significant increases in homeownership in the years following its passage and created a crisis where the goal of enriching lives was replaced by personal political ambition.

In the market-driven economy of today, quid-pro-quo is often (if not entirely) the modus operandi.  Unfortunately, not all transactions are fair in that the “benefit” one party receives is in fact harmful to them either immediately or over time.  In drafting and eventually passing the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, the United States Congress set the American people on the fast-track to homeownership by strong-arming banks into offering home mortgages to minorities and low-income groups.  Questions of legitimacy, a false sense of security and a dubious backhanded attempt at further controlling the American people come into question in addition to whether or not homeownership is a ‘right.’

For starters, the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 (‘CRA’ hereafter) was an approved Congressional bill that fell under the greater umbrella of a number of domestic policy initiatives pushed by left-winged Democrats during this time i.  The purpose of the CRA was to “encourage such institutions to help meet the credit needs of the local communities in which they are chartered consistent with the safe and sound operation of such institutions” [1].  Of course, the “encouragement” that these banks received came in the form of oversight committees (vis-à-vis the HMDA ii) that expected a report on their mortgage lending practices [2].  Often, mortgage loans were given to borrowers that had “less-than-stellar credit levels” [3]. Subsequently, if lenders did not cooperate in offering excessive volumes of sub-prime mortgages, the federal government would most likely threaten these same banks with dire consequences, such as withdrawing depository security given by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

Is homeownership a right?  The Constitution grants “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” as integral parts of American culture; it does not grant happiness itself.  If the notion that homeownership is a right, this would then mean that every American citizen (disregarding immigration quibbles for the time being) should own a home.  If a buyer is unable to pay for a home in full and up-front, they are likely to take out a mortgage; the mortgage undoubtedly has an annual interest rate attached to it.  By virtue of that, the person is then obligated to pay back the mortgage and its interest; the overall cost of the home (mortgage + interest) may exceed the original cost of the house itself.  When you factor in government-assisted home ownership, the following may happen: The government forces banks to loan mortgages to those who normally (disregarding the CRA) do not “deserve” (by virtue of their credit rating or their neighborhood – “redlining”) them, but by virtue of the CRA, these banks dole out loans and the opportunity for homeownership arises in step with the “American Dream”.  The federal government then (legitimately so) finds the need to increase taxes in order to fortify such insurance agencies like the FDIC to account for those with low credit scores holding mortgages and/or those whose jobs do not allow them to repay their mortgage and interest within a set time – usually 30 years iii.  However, if the federal government deems agencies that have enough government-mandated power to manage certain issues (EPA, DMV, etc.) are insufficiently addressing the needs at hand, it may proceed to create additional programs and bureaucracies to ‘assist’ those already created.  If these same individuals possessing sub-prime mortgages are responsible enough to account for the terms of the sub-prime mortgages, all is well in that they are able to work with the income and credit they have to pay back the mortgage and ensuing interest; this is the ideal resolution.  If those same individuals (for whatever reason) are not able to repay the mortgage within the time frame agreed upon (in addition to its interest), the home then goes into foreclosure. Naturally, the bank will assume responsibility over the house and will attempt to sell it on the market in order to hopefully procure what money it lost by virtue of the borrower.

Homeownership is not a right; it is a privilege given to individuals deserving of its provisions.  Just as not everyone is born to be the President of the United States, not everyone is meant to own a home.  Unfortunately, the perfect is made the enemy of the good (Ron Paul is not alone in this).  In creating such entities as Social Security, GSE’s like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (used to facilitate the availability of short-term low-interest rate mortgages, but went near bankruptcy in the housing market crash), a mandate is given to U.S. taxpayers that they must participate in assisting others (taxes used to pay for welfare) and themselves (Social Security) and in doing so, they lose the responsibility of their own money, forfeiting (albeit unwillingly) their rights to an ambiguous higher power – the federal government.  Who is to say that any individual is required to be courteous to his or her neighbor?  Virtue is not something absorbed through legislation by a haphazard Congress and Senate; it is something to be realized and understood at a unitary level. At the point where a government has the power to control the way individuals, groups of individuals, cities, counties and states live their lives (via taxes, laws enacted by empowered bureaucracies, etc.), one can be sure that those same people will lay the cause of their own demise on the people they ordered to act.

When an individual or family owns a home, it creates an environment where the family can say that it has control over a basic human need – shelter.  When a feeling of control is present, it gives a sense of security and courage that (seemingly) anything is possible when you have a place to call home.  Security and stability are what consumers gravitate towards.  As a result, owning a home becomes one way to establish security and stability in one’s life.  If a politician (as the people’s representative) is able to give people what they truly look for – stability and security, this politician would become the best thing since sliced bread.  The politician that gives the individual what it needs is then praised for doing a great thing and lauded for giving true equality to all.  Then, these same individuals and families find that due to unfortunate circumstances, they are unable to reciprocate the good given to them from the politician by contributing their part in the deal.  As can be expected, the politician then becomes the one to hopefully rescue individuals and families from their circumstances, as the politician was the one to give them what they really wanted – a home.  After (indirectly) agreeing to forfeit personal rights and liberties to the politician, the politician goes about to set laws and programs into effect that are supposedly used to improve the undesirable situation; “no pain no gain” becomes the motto.  In accepting a politician as the bread-winner for the family, the fine print of the agreement makes itself visible as unforeseen strings begin to strangle those poor souls needing the most help.

Table 1 (Click to Enlarge): Subprime loans in summary. Taken from "Banks Building Markets by Building Communities," by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Table 1 (Click to Enlarge): Subprime loans in summary. Taken from "Banks Building Markets by Building Communities," by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

home-ownership-rates

Graph 1 (Click to enlarge) - Homeownership rates from 1901 - 2008

The question of CRA’s legitimacy then comes into question.  Are the individuals that are lent a sub-prime mortgage really better off?  If the argument is made (and it often is on the political Left), that banks are heartless corporations looking for a quick buck, why would these same lending institutions provide charity loans to borrowers who most likely will not be able to pay back the loan they took?  Table 1 shows that as of December 31, 2007, banks gave out more than 3.5 million subprime mortgages.    Graph 1 then shows that the years following the passage of the CRA only increased homeownership by 2%-3%, then dropped a few percentage points during the 1980s; this is not the exact version of the CRA that Left-winged politicians had in mind.  Even if the argument was made that homeownership reached the 70% mark during the 1990s, the fact still remains that as of late, mass foreclosure has plagued the housing market as of mid-late 2008 (note the slight drop in homeownership in Graph 1).

If these same banks chose to give mortgages out to undeserving recipients (assuming their free will in the matter), they would suffer grave consequences and forfeit opportunities to conduct business with preferred borrowers that have trustworthy credit security.  Yet an oligarchy of individuals commonly known as “elected officials” decide what “good” and “bad” is, and orchestrate banking practices accordingly.  Again, this goes back to the idea of making the perfect the enemy of the good; in forcing banks to give loans to undeserving recipients, the assumption is made that these corrupt banks denied mortgages to whom they did out of an ulterior motive of keeping the underprivileged where they are and promoting the dignity and success of their own kind.  Such a farcical concept flies in the face of conventional free-market banking protocol; individuals and businesses alike surrender their savings and checking accounts with those banks, yet this trust in proper management of their capital is brought to nothing when banks engage in such a manner that their decisions on how to conduct their business escapes their jurisdiction.

Without a doubt, those who drafted the CRA did so with the best intentions in mind; there was (and still is) an unfortunate percentage of individuals and families who do not own a home.  Unfortunately, many Americans forfeited their own rights to politicians with the hope that their elected officials could solve their problems; the irony is that those elected only made the problem worse by affecting other areas of American life that were uninvolved before the fact.  What we saw in the initial stages of the housing meltdown was the result of excessive government oversight and control over an everyday thing – homeownership.  While it was good for a substantial number of individuals and families to own a home for however long they did before foreclosing, it benefited the politicians even more in that they assumed more power and authority to clean up their own mess.  This then sets the precedent for future elected officials to assume power over an individual citizen’s financial issues not yet addressed in Washington.  Who knows what great authority politicians will wield 50 years from now.

Notes

i. Former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s “Great Society” gave birth to entitlement programs (Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, etc.) that attempted to address many of the social questions that plagued Americans; a number of these programs continue to enrich the lives of millions of Americans today. NoteEntitlement Programs are government programs that target a particular section of the population to receive specific social benefits.

ii. The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975 (HMDA) “[required] federally regulated banks, savings and loans, and credit unions to report annually the number and dollar amount of mortgage loans they make by census tract in all metropolitan areas.

iii. Sub-prime mortgages allow the debtor to pay significantly lower monthly fees (compared to a regular mortgage).  Unfortunately, this amount increases over time as to not cause the bank to lose money relative to the terms of standard mortgages – in comparing the amount to be paid back between a sub-prime mortgage and a standard mortgage, there is little or no difference, but the initial amounts paid back at the beginning of a sub-prime mortgage loan starts off much lower followed by a much higher finish.

Works Cited

Autry, Gene, and Samantha Coplen. “Banking and Community Perspectives.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Ed. Kathy Thacker. N.p., n.d. Web. 19
Oct. 2009. <http://www.dallasfed.org/ca/bcp/2009/bcp0901.cfm>.

[3]. “The Subprime Mortgage Market: What You Should Know, Why You Should Care.” AARP Financial. AARP, n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2009. <http://www.aarpfinancial.com/content/Learning/investments_re_subprime.cfm>.

[2]. Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. 3 USC. Sec. 301-311. 1975. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporatoin. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2009. http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/6500-3030.html.

[1]. Community Reinvestment Act, 31 Fed. Reg. 6988.25 (1977), fdic.gov (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)

“U.S. Homeownership Rates, 1900-2008 (in percent).” Image. FACTS on POLICY: Homeownership Rates. Hoover Inst., 19 Aug. 2008. Web. 24 Nov. 2009. <http://www.hoover.org/research/factsonpolicy/facts/26963064.html>

Original Appearances of External Data Visuals and Media

1) Visual by “aggiefan6”

2) Table 1 was taken from issue 1 of “Banking and Community Perspectives” from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

3) Graph 1 was taken from the Hoover Institution’s “FACTS ON POLICY: Homeownership Rates”

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Let’s be Realistic About the International Social Interest

Created by Dan Beard. (http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_handshake.png)Visual By by Dan Beard.

This column asserts that the recent shift in political philosophy towards idealism is not the best way to work in international relations. The traditional realist paradigm that focuses on the fight for power depicts the way that international relations have worked historically and continue to work today–therefore, realism is a more pragmatic way to look at international relations.

The United States of America has often taken what should be considered a very idealistic view of the world, particularly when one considers the can-do attitude that persists despite economic troubles or war. This outlook was seen clearly through President Barack Obama’s electoral campaign and his focus on belief, hope, and change. However, this idealism—while it persists in people’s thoughts and hopes—has not always followed through in their actions. Looking back through history, interactions between people are not easily explained just by looking at their beliefs—questions arise regarding motivation. Why do some conflicts lead to war but not others? Has the growing focus on human rights throughout the world affected the ways that countries interact with one another? Historians and scholars have looked at such interactions and formed paradigms on how the world works and why. Over the past few centuries, the prominent view has been realism, focusing on national security and interests as the driving forces behind countries’ actions. However, in more recent years the Idealist view has become more popular. Yet while the approaches and angles that states take to pursue their goals have changed, the goals themselves remain the same. Realism is not the most optimistic view of the world to take, but despite the hopes of individuals it remains the most pragmatic way of depicting states’ behaviors and motivations.

The heart of realism says that, given the absence of a higher power, the national security and interests are what motivate a nation’s actions when it is competing with other states for resources. As a result, in efforts to attain greater security, many states seek power through militarization, diplomacy, or economic dominance. Most of the time, these aims spark conflict with other states, where one nation’s efforts to attain security are seen as a threat by another. In such situations, security dilemmas emerge where these two nations seek to overpower the other and remove the threat—in such cases, like the Cold War, the motivations of each state don’t necessarily matter anymore. The arms’ race between the US and USSR was propelled not by certain knowledge that the Russians were going to use their weapons against America, but the fear that they would decide to do so and America would be unprepared. The outcome of this arms race was not necessarily positive, but in the policy decisions this didn’t matter—whatever the outcome, preserving America’s security was of paramount importance. War or conflict, whether direct or not, will result with another state when differences in goals appear.

However, despite the long-term acceptance of realism, other perspectives on world affairs have been gaining support in recent years. Two of the most popular are the liberal and constructivist viewpoints. The liberal view is based largely on what is called the Kantian triangle—economic interdependency, cooperation through organization, and the spread of democracy. Liberals believe that promoting the Kantian triangle will eventually result in a world where peace can be established because war would be unproductive. The constructivists take a differing view, where past interactions play a large role in defining current and future interactions. Thus, states have the ability to change the way that they react to things based on their past interactions and beliefs. “Self help and power politics are institutions, not essential features of anarchy. Anarchy is what states make of it” [1]. Thus, anarchy allows states to play by a system based on the search for greater power, but it does not mean that this is the only option. Thus the constructivists would argue that the Cold War came to an end because the United States and USSR decided to actively pursue different options in their relations. Changing the ideas about relations between countries can change the relations themselves.

A major point in both the liberal and constructivist viewpoints is the United Nations’ role in international affairs. However, to consider this view, one must consider the actual effect of the UN on global relations. The United Nations often passes resolutions and gives opinions on such issues as human rights or nuclear weapons, but the true judgment on its effectiveness lies in whether or not such declarations are obeyed by the individual countries. “Since the end of the Cold War,…America’s power relative to that of other countries has only increased. But instead of hastening to reassure weaker states… the United States is coupling its explicit drive for primacy with an equally explicit disdain for a whole range of treaties. Consider the current U.S. opposition virtually all arms-control treaties—land mines, small arms, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty—and to efforts to strengthen existing treaties on biological and chemical warfare” [2]. Clearly, while there are agreements and treaties coming to fruition under the guidance of the U.N., they are not joined by all countries. If a country feels that a certain agreement is to its detriment, then it will not sign—and the United Nations is not strong enough to force participation.

This lack of power is clear on things such as human rights—when a country feels that allowing freedom of speech or freedom of religion threatens its sovereignty, it will often limit those rights. This happens even in countries that have already committed to respect such freedoms. Iran is party to the Convention on Civil and Political Rights [3]; Saudi Arabia signed the Convention on Elimination of Discrimination [4]. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia’s actions have shown that they are not committed to supporting these conventions, and are in fact examples of countries who disregard such rights on a regular basis. Even a country such as the United States, which considers itself the protector of human rights, fails to take up the duties accepted via international treaties. The United States did commit to the Genocide Convention in, and yet it refused to interfere in Rwanda during the 1990’s and has not yet acted to stop genocide from occurring in the Darfur region of Somalia [5]. Despite the United Nations’ existence, a country’s actions are still determined more by national security and national interests than by international agreements and ideas of ethics.

Thus the growth and spread of international organizations are not responsible for changing the way that states interact in any significant manner. When an issue is of national security or threatens national interests, the individual state’s considerations will almost always come first. Similarly, the spread of democracy has indeed occurred over the past century, but it has not stopped warfare. “In the last two decades, some 80 countries have joined the democratic column…. Theorists at least as far back as Immanuel Kant have posited that democratic societies would be much less likely to make war than other kinds of states. So far, this has proved true: Democracy-against-democracy fighting has been extremely rare” [6]. However, this only says that war among democracy will not occur—and while this may have been true recently, most democracies have little compunction about going to war with countries whose governments are dictatorships. Countries still resort to warfare when they feel that their best peaceful options have been tried.

The most recent example of this is the United States’ reaction to the terrorist attack in 2001. The Bush administration counterattacked the terrorists in Afghanistan because they had infiltrated and continued to threaten America’s national security. The United States sought legitimacy through international support—the then-Secretary of State Colin Powell particularly emphasized the necessity of getting United Nations’ aid in their attack, as well as allies and support for the invasion [7]. However, the decision was made that the United States would attack with or without support from the United Nations, proving that while international organizations give legitimacy to a decision, the decision does not rest on such support.

Thus, while the liberal view does make many thought-provoking points about change in the international community, these changes are largely superficial and have not affected states’ deeper motivations or goals. Americans like to look at the future and say that their country defends democracy, and it does—but only sometimes. While their ideals may be to live in a country that supports human rights and participate in organizations that do so, this is not always the reality. The spread of democracy and the growth of international groups and organizations have made certain options more open to countries—they may seek diplomatic or economic sanctions before engaging in military action. But despite these changes, when the other venues do not work, states will resort to military action. The norm of behavior has only been superficially altered. Thus, realism is not the most optimistic view of the world, but it is still the closest perspective on world politics that exists today.

Works Cited

[4] “Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women.” Division for the Advancement of Women. 1 Jan. 2008. 31 Aug. 2009.< http://www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/cedaw/states.htm>.

[6] Easterbrook, Gregg. “The End of War?” The New Republic. 30 May 2005. 30 Aug.2009. <http://www.tnr.com/article/the-end-war>.

[7] Glennon, Michael J. “Why the Security Council Failed.” YaleGlobal Online. 1 May2003. 31 August 2009. <http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/why-security-council-failed>.

[3] “Signatures to the United Nations Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.” Human Rights Web. 25 Jan. 1997. 31 Aug. 2009. <http://www.hrweb.org/legal/cprsigs.html>.

[2] Slaughter, Anne-Marie. “Leading Through Law.” The Wilson Quarterly Autumn 2003: 37-44. (Online: http://www.princeton.edu/~slaughtr/Articles/LeadingLaw.pdf)

[5] United Nations. United Nations Treaty Collection. 31 August 2009. <http://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=IV-1&chapter=4&lang=en>.

[1] Wendt, Alexander. “Anarchy is what States Make of it: The Social Construction of Power Politics.” International Organization Vol 46, No. 2: 391-425. (Online: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2706858?seq=5)

Original Appearances of Data Visuals and Media

1) Cover Image by Dan Beard

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Rethinking Political Ideologies

This column asserts that, since quantitative models are fundamentally flawed when used for qualitative measurements, the traditional representations of the political spectrum are inadequate for properly comparing and contrasting political ideologies. Therefore, these flawed models should be replaced with a qualitative model that reflects the nature of the political spectrum. Such a model could be based on the Grundnorm theory of law.

Suppose that Legal Philosophy was ordered as a Left-Right Jurisprudence spectrum rather than by group—Natural Law, Legal Positivism, Legal Realism, and Critical Legal Studies (CLS). Suppose that Theology was ordered as a Left-Right Religion spectrum rather than by denomination—Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Bahá’í, Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism, etc. Suppose that the Natural Sciences were ordered as a Left-Right Science spectrum rather than by field—Chemistry, Physics, Biology, Astronomy, and Geoscience. This is the current state of Politics. One should feel a knee-jerk reaction seeing a complex and intellectually rich system of thought reduced to an overly simplistic uni-axis or multi-axis model that is ultimately inaccurate, but more importantly breeds tribal politics.i

Figure 1 (Click to Enlarge): Created by Sal Chiarelli

Figure 1 (Click to Enlarge): Created by Salvatore Chiarelli

The jurist and legal philosopher Hans Kelsen created a concept known as the Grundnorm, or “grand norm.” Kelsen used this word to denote the basic norm, order, or rule that forms the underlying basis for a legal system. This is a theoretical concept based on a need to find a point of origin on which the system can be legitimized. Conceptually, it is a pyramid with the top-most part being the basic norm and all other norms derived from this in an ordered and logical structure going down to the base of the pyramid (See Figure 1). Any norm not within this structure is seen as an illegitimate norm to the structure.ii

Similarly, modern politics is in need of a Kelsen reordering. It is time for political discourse to shed its dichotomous assertions of Left vs Right and instead explore the complex political ideologies, both individual and syncretic.iii

The two most well-known political spectrum models are the uni-axis left-right model and the bi-axis social/economic model. The uni-axis model (See Figure 2) traces its history back to the French Revolution 1789-1796. The terms “Left” and “Right” referred to the political affiliations, specifically to the seating arrangements. The aristocracy sat on the right of the Speaker and the commoners sat on the left, hence “right-wing” and “left-wing politics”. The political spectrum represented by the uni-axis model runs Radical-Liberal-Moderate-Conservative-Reactionary.iv Although the definitions have been somewhat distorted over the years, they refer specifically to the status-quo. For example, liberals desire a change to the current state of affairs and radicals more-so, moderates desire change in some aspects and no change in other aspects, conservatives desire no change to the status quo, and reactionaries desire a return to the previously existing state of affairs (status quo ante).v A variation of this model is Jean-Pierre Faye’s horseshoe theory, which asserts that rather than the far-left and the far-right being at opposite and opposing ends, the extreme left and the extreme right have many similarities and share a common ground. So, it basically takes the horizontal uni-axis model and bends it to almost a circle.

Figure 2 (Click to Enlarge): Created by Sal Chiarelli

Figure 2 (Click to Enlarge): Created by Salvatore Chiarelli

For almost a century, political scientists have approached the problem of how to best represent political variation, yielding underwhelming results. What almost everyone agrees upon is that a uni-axis model is insufficient for most practical purposes.

Figure 3 (Click to Enlarge): Created by Sal Chiarelli

Figure 3 (Click to Enlarge): Diamond Chart

The most well-known bi-axis model is the Diamond Chart by the World’s Smallest Political Quiz (See Figure 3), which is based on David Nolan’s Nolan Chart (See Figure 4). Generally, the left-right (x) axis represents economic freedom and the libertarian-statist (y) axis represents personal and social freedom. There are two tri-axis models based on the Nolan Chart. The Friesian Institute has suggested a model that combines economic liberty, personal liberty, and positive liberty. There is also the Vosem Chart, which has corporate economics, individual economics, and civil liberty.

Continuing down this path will inevitably lead to hundreds of possible variations because there are too many factors to take into account. What about foreign policy, foreign trade, law & state authority, censorship, patriotism, individualism, religiosity, humanitarianism, nationalism, and ideological rigidity? Like the price-quantity (aka supply-demand) model in economics, one walks a tight-rope in determining between accuracy and practicality. For example, how does one even make the assumption that by measuring economic freedom to personal freedom that they are equitable to each other? For something qualitative such as political ideology, the model must reflect the nature of that system. A degree-based model is fundamentally flawed for the political spectrum because it is meant for a quantitative representation and not for qualitative measurements. Any quantitative model of the political spectrum, whether uni-axis or multi-axis, will always lead to this opportunity cost scenario.

Kelsen’s pyramid, which has a basic norm and lesser norms branching outwards, better serves the civil community and political discourse. Although Kelsen applied his theory to legal systems and the basic norm of such a system is hypothetical, one can not only apply it to political ideologies, but can deductively determine the basic norm of each one. Unlike a legal system, a political ideology is much more ordered and intellectually consistent with itself.vi

Figure 4 (Click to Enlarge): Nolan Chart

Figure 4 (Click to Enlarge): Nolan Chart

Not to be confused with political philosophy, a political ideology is a certain collection of ideas that have an ethical set of ideals, principles, and doctrines that explains how a society should work and offers some blueprint for a certain social order. A political ideology largely concerns itself with how to allocate power and the ends to which it should be used. Political ideologies have two dimensions—goals & methods: (1) how society should function or be organized and (2) the most appropriate way to achieve this goal.

This is certainly not the only way to go about this, but one can reduce all political ideologies to either of the following three norms: (1) Government is good, (2) Government is evil, (3) Government is neutral. It can then proceed to the necessity of Government: (1a) Government is good and necessary, (1b) Government is good, but unnecessary, (2a) Government is a necessary evil, (2b) Government is an unnecessary evil, (3a) Government is neutral and necessary, (3b) Government is neutral and unnecessary. In continuing this derivation, a certain pattern emerges. Liberal ideologies are derived from the norm that Government is a necessary evil, statist ideologies tend to be derived from the norm that Government is good and necessary, and anarchist (ant-statism, properly so-called) ideologies tend to be derived from the norm that Government is an unnecessary evil. Breaking down the basic norms will eventually yield any known political ideology. This is a superior system in qualitatively analyzing the similarities and differences among the myriad of political ideologies without using a flawed degree-based model. Using this system will reset the battle-lines of partisan politics and demand ideological distinctions within the parties. Politics should not be about left-wing vs right-wing; it should be about answering such questions as what public policy best benefits the people, what the appropriate role of Government should be, and how to cope with the challenges humanity faces in the future.

Notes

i. tribal politics: when a Republican opposes a Democratic stance and vise-versa solely to support the opposite of what one’s opponent supports.

ii. An example of this is institutionalized slavery, which was inconsistent with the doctrine expressed in the US Declaration of Independence that all men are created equal and that they are endowed by their Creator with the inalienable rights of Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. Because this norm was not located within the pyramid, it was a matter of time for slavery to be rejected.

iii. Syncretic politics: when a political ideology attempts to combine seemingly opposed ideological systems. Examples include Italian fascism and also the ideology of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, which combines Marxism and Islam.

iv. Alternative terminology: far left – left of center – centrist – right of center – far right

v. Status quo: the existing state of affairs. Latin, literally ‘the state in which’. Status quo ante: the previously existing state of affairs. Latin, literally ‘the state in which before’

vi. For the most part, political ideologies are consistent with themselves. However, one should also recognize that political ideologies are simply frameworks for shared beliefs and/or interests. Therefore, there are some political ideologies not entirely consistent, such as fusionism (aka libertarian conservatism). Fusionism combines libertarians, traditional (paleo-)conservatives, and social conservatives. In addition, neo-conservatism is inconsistent with the general conservative ideology. This is the equivalent of trying to mix water and oil. You can continuously stir the two together, but they fundamentally cannot mix.

Works Cited

Advocates for Self-Government. Last modified 24 Sept 2009. Accessed 10 Oct 2009. http://www.theadvocates.org/quizp/index.html

Ladavac, Nicoletta Bersier. Hans Kelsen (1881-1973). ©1990-2004 European Journal of International Law. Academy of European Law online. Last modified 19 Nov 2003. Accessed 10 Oct 2009. http://207.57.19.226/journal/Vol9/No2/art11.html/art11.pdf

Nolan Chart. Last modified 18 Oct 2009. Accessed 10 Oct 2009. http://www.nolanchart.com/survey.php

Original Appearances of Data Visuals and Media

1) Figure 1 – Kelsen Pyramid

2) Figure 2 – Left-Right Spectrum

3) Figure 3 – Diamond Chart

4) Figure 4 – Nolan Chart

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