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…And Your 2013 New York Mets Position Players Are…
With the Mets hopelessly out of playoff contention for this year, it’s not too early to look forward to next year. This projection takes into account free agency, but not trades. Today’s topic are the position players.
First, the current players. All italicized players are impending free agents
Catchers:
- Josh Thole
- Kelly Shoppach
Infielders:
- Ronny Cedeno
- Ike Davis
- Daniel Murphy
- Ruben Tejada
- Justin Turner
- David Wright
Outfielders:
- Mike Baxter
- Jason Bay
- Scott Hairston
- Andres Torres
- Jordany Valdespin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
The first thing I notice about this squad is the lack of players touching Free Agency. Obviously the priority of re-signing David Wright, which I think Alderson will do. Using Ryan Zimmerman’s recent six year/$100 million extension as a guide, I think Wright will sign for slightly less than that (six years/$90 million with mutual options for two more years).
The Mets will also probably resign Scott Hairston to a two year deal that values anywhere between $2.5 and $4 million annually. While Ronny Cedeno has been a decent surprise, I can see the Mets’ letting him walk as he’s too much of a luxury signing, and there are plenty of defensive specialists on the market. Shoppach will most likely end up somewhere else as well.
What’s interesting is that the Mets have to make moves if they want their young kids to play. Assuming Hairston re-signs, their five outfielders on the roster today will all be back next year. That means there would be no room for Lucas Duda, no room for Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and no room for prospect Matt Den Dekker, who has had a great year so far in the minors. My guess: Torres gets traded, and Bay gets cut, so the Mets can use Den Dekker and Duda in the outfield next year.
The Mets starting infield is pretty much set as well. Davis and Wright are virtual locks, Tejada has earned another year at SS, and Murphy should be starting over Valdespin (assuming Murphy isn’t used a trade bait for pitching help). Thole isn’t a world-beater at backstop, but since the Mets are not checking in on marquee catchers like Mike Napoli, he should retain his starting spot for 2013.
With two backups needed, the Mets should look outside the organization. They need a backup catcher, and could land of the better ones in the game in David Ross. Ross is an impending free agent, and the current backup for the Atlanta Braves. If the Braves were to let him go, the Mets should jump all over him. Not only does he offer tremendous power, but he calls a decent game and could play against lefties if he were to platoon with Thole.
To replace Cedeno on the roster, the conventional idea would be to pick up another glove-fist middle infielder. But, with Turner’s flexibility, the Mets could afford to sign an power hitting righty to come of the bench. Somebody like a Mark Reynolds (who strikes out a ton but has obscene power) wouldn’t be a poor idea. He’d likely want to look for a starting job, but if the Mets’ can get lucky and sign him to a one year deal worth $4 or $5 million, he’d immediately help the Mets: not only as a bat off the bench, but somebody to spell Davis if he were to enter another prolonged slump.
To recap, here are my predictions
Catchers:
- Josh Thole
- David Ross
Infielders:
- Ike Davis
- Daniel Murphy
- Mark Reynolds
- Ruben Tejada
- Justin Turner
- David Wright
Outfielders:
- Mike Baxter
- Matt Den Dekker
- Lucas Duda
- Scott Hairston
- Jordany Valdespin
Posted in No time for tags: it's 11:55, Unfounded Projections
Comments Off on …And Your 2013 New York Mets Position Players Are…
…And Your 2013 New York Mets Position Players Are…
With the Mets hopelessly out of playoff contention for this year, it’s not too early to look forward to next year. This projection takes into account free agency, but not trades. Today’s topic are the position players.
First, the current players. All italicized players are impending free agents
Catchers:
- Josh Thole
- Kelly Shoppach
Infielders:
- Ronny Cedeno
- Ike Davis
- Daniel Murphy
- Ruben Tejada
- Justin Turner
- David Wright
Outfielders:
- Mike Baxter
- Jason Bay
- Scott Hairston
- Andres Torres
- Jordany Valdespin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
The first thing I notice about this squad is the lack of players touching Free Agency. Obviously the priority of re-signing David Wright, which I think Alderson will do. Using Ryan Zimmerman’s recent six year/$100 million extension as a guide, I think Wright will sign for slightly less than that (six years/$90 million with mutual options for two more years).
The Mets will also probably resign Scott Hairston to a two year deal that values anywhere between $2.5 and $4 million annually. While Ronny Cedeno has been a decent surprise, I can see the Mets’ letting him walk as he’s too much of a luxury signing, and there are plenty of defensive specialists on the market. Shoppach will most likely end up somewhere else as well.
What’s interesting is that the Mets have to make moves if they want their young kids to play. Assuming Hairston re-signs, their five outfielders on the roster today will all be back next year. That means there would be no room for Lucas Duda, no room for Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and no room for prospect Matt Den Dekker, who has had a great year so far in the minors. My guess: Torres gets traded, and Bay gets cut, so the Mets can use Den Dekker and Duda in the outfield next year.
The Mets starting infield is pretty much set as well. Davis and Wright are virtual locks, Tejada has earned another year at SS, and Murphy should be starting over Valdespin (assuming Murphy isn’t used a trade bait for pitching help). Thole isn’t a world-beater at backstop, but since the Mets are not checking in on marquee catchers like Mike Napoli, he should retain his starting spot for 2013.
With two backups needed, the Mets should look outside the organization. They need a backup catcher, and could land of the better ones in the game in David Ross. Ross is an impending free agent, and the current backup for the Atlanta Braves. If the Braves were to let him go, the Mets should jump all over him. Not only does he offer tremendous power, but he calls a decent game and could play against lefties if he were to platoon with Thole.
To replace Cedeno on the roster, the conventional idea would be to pick up another glove-fist middle infielder. But, with Turner’s flexibility, the Mets could afford to sign an power hitting righty to come of the bench. Somebody like a Mark Reynolds (who strikes out a ton but has obscene power) wouldn’t be a poor idea. He’d likely want to look for a starting job, but if the Mets’ can get lucky and sign him to a one year deal worth $4 or $5 million, he’d immediately help the Mets: not only as a bat off the bench, but somebody to spell Davis if he were to enter another prolonged slump.
To recap, here are my predictions
Catchers:
- Josh Thole
- David Ross
Infielders:
- Ike Davis
- Daniel Murphy
- Mark Reynolds
- Ruben Tejada
- Justin Turner
- David Wright
Outfielders:
- Mike Baxter
- Matt Den Dekker
- Lucas Duda
- Scott Hairston
- Jordany Valdespin
Posted in No time for tags: it's 11:55, Unfounded Projections
Comments Off on …And Your 2013 New York Mets Position Players Are…
…And Your 2013 New York Mets Pitching Staff Is…
With the Mets hopelessly out of playoff contention for this year, it’s not too early to look forward to next year. This projection takes into account free agency, but not trades. Today’s topic is the pitching staff.
First, the current staff. All italicized players are impending free agents
Starters:
- R.A. Dickey
- Johan Santana
- Jonathon Niese
- Chris Young
- Matt Harvey
Bullpen:
- Frank Francisco
- Bobby Parnell
- Josh Edgin
- Jon Rauch
- Ramon Ramirez
- Jeremy Hefner
- Manny Acosta
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
The Mets shouldn’t have to look outside the organization for starting help. R.A. Dickey’s option is a no-brainer to pick up, Niese signed an extension earlier in the year so he’d staying put, and Harvey is here to stay. Santana has a spot next year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Mets decide to trade him and his expiring contract next year when the feel that wunderkind Zach Wheeler is ready. Chris Young may be leaving, but Dillon Gee is due back next year, and should take his rotation spot. Mike Pelfrey, who began the year in the Mets’ rotation, is an obvious non-tender candidate, but it’s not out of the question the Mets would resign him at a reduced rate and stash him in Buffalo as depth.
The bullpen has been a mess all year, so expect a major overhaul. Edgin and Parnell have spots that are theirs to lose (young, cheap, power arms are valuable commodities). Francisco is there because the Mets will continue to justify his contract ($6.5 million next year). Ramirez will leave in free agency, and Acosta will be non-tendered. The Mets could re-sign Jon Rauch, but it’s probable he’ll seek one more pay day as he’s putting up career numbers. Hefner will probably go back to the farm, and become Dillon Gee 2.0 (first starter up if injury strikes, and consistently inconsistent). That means the Mets will have to fill up four empty bullpen spots.
Two of those bullpen spots should be reserved for Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Both are being stretched out as starters in AAA, but there’s no room for both of them in the majors. With Niese, Harvey, and Wheeler already under control for the next 4+ years, there wouldn’t be room for both if the Mets give Dickey a deserved contract extension, and signed a marquee free agent in a few years (a rotation where your #5 starter is Niese sounds scary, doesn’t it?). Both Familia and Mejia have good fastballs, and Familia has a potential knee-buckling curve, while Mejia throws a nice changeup. They both also need to improve their command, but their stuff is nasty enough to solidify a weak bullpen.
With two more spots, the Mets will likely need to go outside the organization to fill these. They’re in need of a Lefty One Out Guy (affectionately known as a L.O.O.G.Y) with Byrdak having possible career ending injuries. Randy Choate is available, and absolutely kills lefties, but would be chased by contending teams that can offer more money, so my guess is the Mets go with Mike Gonzalez as their L.O.O.G.Y. He’s got a career 2.90 ERA over 10 big league seasons, and is returning to form as a member of the rival Nationals. At 34 years old, he’s winding down is his career, but the Mets will slightly overpay him for two years of service, in part because of their need, and in part because it would take away a Nationals reliever.
Going truly outside the box, the Mets may fill up their last bullpen spot with the Australian side-armer Peter Moylan. While the medical red flags would obviously be raised, he’s a low-risk, high-reward candiate. He has a career 2.60 ERA, and has posted years with the rival Braves that were really, really, good. Plus, Moylan doesn’t like Nickelback, which is worth the signing even if he had a 4.60 ERA.
So to recap, here’s how I believe the New York Mets’ 2013 pitching staff will look like
Starters:
- R.A. Dickey
- Johan Santana
- Jonathon Niese
- Matt Harvey
- Dillon Gee
Bullpen:
- Frank Francisco
- Bobby Parnell
- Jenrry Mejia
- Josh Edgin
- Jeurys Familia
- Peter Moylan
- Mike Gonzalez
Posted in Acostalypse, Atlanta Braves, Bobby Parnell, Chris Young, Dillon Gee, Frank Francisco a.k.a ineffective K-Rod, Holy Shit That's A Lot of Tags, Jenrry Mejia, Jeremy Hefner: No Relation to Hugh, Jeurys Familia, Johan Santana, Jon Rauch, Jonathon Niese, Josh Edgin, LOOGY Love, Manny Acosta, Matt Harvey, Mike Gonzalez, Mike Pelfrey, Nickelback is Awful, No. The Other Chris Young (the injured one), Peter Moylan, R.A. Dickey, Ramon Ramirez, Tim Byrdak, Unfounded Projections, Washington Nationals, Zach Wheeler
Comments Off on …And Your 2013 New York Mets Pitching Staff Is…
…And Your 2013 New York Mets Pitching Staff Is…
With the Mets hopelessly out of playoff contention for this year, it’s not too early to look forward to next year. This projection takes into account free agency, but not trades. Today’s topic is the pitching staff.
First, the current staff. All italicized players are impending free agents
Starters:
- R.A. Dickey
- Johan Santana
- Jonathon Niese
- Chris Young
- Matt Harvey
Bullpen:
- Frank Francisco
- Bobby Parnell
- Josh Edgin
- Jon Rauch
- Ramon Ramirez
- Jeremy Hefner
- Manny Acosta
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
The Mets shouldn’t have to look outside the organization for starting help. R.A. Dickey’s option is a no-brainer to pick up, Niese signed an extension earlier in the year so he’d staying put, and Harvey is here to stay. Santana has a spot next year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Mets decide to trade him and his expiring contract next year when the feel that wunderkind Zach Wheeler is ready. Chris Young may be leaving, but Dillon Gee is due back next year, and should take his rotation spot. Mike Pelfrey, who began the year in the Mets’ rotation, is an obvious non-tender candidate, but it’s not out of the question the Mets would resign him at a reduced rate and stash him in Buffalo as depth.
The bullpen has been a mess all year, so expect a major overhaul. Edgin and Parnell have spots that are theirs to lose (young, cheap, power arms are valuable commodities). Francisco is there because the Mets will continue to justify his contract ($6.5 million next year). Ramirez will leave in free agency, and Acosta will be non-tendered. The Mets could re-sign Jon Rauch, but it’s probable he’ll seek one more pay day as he’s putting up career numbers. Hefner will probably go back to the farm, and become Dillon Gee 2.0 (first starter up if injury strikes, and consistently inconsistent). That means the Mets will have to fill up four empty bullpen spots.
Two of those bullpen spots should be reserved for Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Both are being stretched out as starters in AAA, but there’s no room for both of them in the majors. With Niese, Harvey, and Wheeler already under control for the next 4+ years, there wouldn’t be room for both if the Mets give Dickey a deserved contract extension, and signed a marquee free agent in a few years (a rotation where your #5 starter is Niese sounds scary, doesn’t it?). Both Familia and Mejia have good fastballs, and Familia has a potential knee-buckling curve, while Mejia throws a nice changeup. They both also need to improve their command, but their stuff is nasty enough to solidify a weak bullpen.
With two more spots, the Mets will likely need to go outside the organization to fill these. They’re in need of a Lefty One Out Guy (affectionately known as a L.O.O.G.Y) with Byrdak having possible career ending injuries. Randy Choate is available, and absolutely kills lefties, but would be chased by contending teams that can offer more money, so my guess is the Mets go with Mike Gonzalez as their L.O.O.G.Y. He’s got a career 2.90 ERA over 10 big league seasons, and is returning to form as a member of the rival Nationals. At 34 years old, he’s winding down is his career, but the Mets will slightly overpay him for two years of service, in part because of their need, and in part because it would take away a Nationals reliever.
Going truly outside the box, the Mets may fill up their last bullpen spot with the Australian side-armer Peter Moylan. While the medical red flags would obviously be raised, he’s a low-risk, high-reward candiate. He has a career 2.60 ERA, and has posted years with the rival Braves that were really, really, good. Plus, Moylan doesn’t like Nickelback, which is worth the signing even if he had a 4.60 ERA.
So to recap, here’s how I believe the New York Mets’ 2013 pitching staff will look like
Starters:
- R.A. Dickey
- Johan Santana
- Jonathon Niese
- Matt Harvey
- Dillon Gee
Bullpen:
- Frank Francisco
- Bobby Parnell
- Jenrry Mejia
- Josh Edgin
- Jeurys Familia
- Peter Moylan
- Mike Gonzalez
Posted in Acostalypse, Atlanta Braves, Bobby Parnell, Chris Young, Dillon Gee, Frank Francisco a.k.a ineffective K-Rod, Holy Shit That's A Lot of Tags, Jenrry Mejia, Jeremy Hefner: No Relation to Hugh, Jeurys Familia, Johan Santana, Jon Rauch, Jonathon Niese, Josh Edgin, LOOGY Love, Manny Acosta, Matt Harvey, Mike Gonzalez, Mike Pelfrey, Nickelback is Awful, No. The Other Chris Young (the injured one), Peter Moylan, R.A. Dickey, Ramon Ramirez, Tim Byrdak, Unfounded Projections, Washington Nationals, Zach Wheeler
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Fun With Bad Contracts: The Money Involved in the Rumored Jason Bay Trade
Rumors were swirling late last week that the Marlins and Mets were throwing around the possibility of a change-of-scenery trade between the teams. The rumored trade would send outfielder Jason Bay to Miami for catcher John Buck and reliever Heath Bell. This is is the final part of the series, examining the financial aspect.
While cases can be made both for and against the Jason Bay trade, this post is mostly going to focus on how awful each of the three players have been during their respective contracts. First, here are each player’s contracts.
—
Jason Bay
Initial Contract: 4 yr/$66 million deal signed in 2010, with year four (2014) being a vesting option, or requiring a $3 million buyout.
Remaining: $19+ million ($16 million next year, $3 million buyout, remaining salary this year).
Heath Bell
Initial Contract: 3 yr/$27 million deal signed in 2011, with a team option for 2015, that could become a vesting option based on performance
Remaining: $21 million+ (two years at $9 million, $3 million in delayed bonus payments, remaining salary this year)
John Buck
Initial Contract: 3 yr/$18 million deal signed in 2010
Remaining: $6+ million ($6 million next year, remaining salary this year)
—
While the Mets would upgrade in two areas after this deal, they’d be taking on an extra $8 million-and-change. The Mets are still a big-market team, but they have made shrewd moves in lieu of giving out big contracts in recent years. The Madoff scandal and subsequent settlement took a decent chunk of change out the Wilpons’ pockets.
One of the reasons the Mets went with Sandy Alderson as their GM was his track record of success with an extremely limited budget in San Diego. Their 2011 opening day payroll decreased by over $40 million in 2012, and Mets ownership sold $240 million in minority stakes to keep control of the franchise.
The Mets are stuck paying Jason Bay regardless. He’s not a nut-case like K-Rod and won’t give the Mets reason to put him on the restricted list. He’s a professional player in the midst of an incredible struggle, taking his demotion to bench warmer with grace. But what kind of production would the Mets rather be paying? All three are ridiculously overpaid for what they actually do.
They could continue paying Jason Bay nearly $300,000 for every hit he gets, or pay John Buck $116,883 for every hit he gets and Heath Bell $201,492 for every out he records. The Mets could decide to continue to pay Bay $26,336 for every strike he takes or swings at, or pay Buck $9,202 for his similar services, while paying Bell $87,947 for every ball he throws.
Either way, they’re stuck paying outrageous money for abysmal performances.
Posted in Bernie Madoff Scandal, Francisco Rodriguez, Fun With Bad Contracts, Heath Bell, Jason Bay, Jason Bay's Contract Is So Big It Requires It's Own Tag, John Buck, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Random, San Diego Padres, Sandy Alderson
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