On this page, you can find a number of documents that I have obtained in the course of my research on the Iraq War. I received most of these documents through either the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) or through Mandatory Declassification Review (MDR) requests. I have only posted those documents here that I think would be of particular interest to others, but I’m always happy to share other documents that are in my possession if you contact me about them.
I organize the documents below by agency, and I include the least-redacted copy of a given document in my possession.
Central Intelligence Agency
- Senior Executive Intelligence Brief entries on Iraq (October 1, 2002 – March 21, 2003): The Senior Executive Intelligence Brief (formerly known as the National Intelligence Daily) is the less-sensitive counterpart to the President’s Daily Brief. I filed a FOIA request with the CIA seeking all SEIB entries on the subject of Iraq from October 1, 2002 to March 21, 2003. These documents are what I received. Notably, they are not at all comprehensive. A number of SEIB entries on Iraq have been released directly to me or to others under FOIA that are neither included in this release nor listed as denied in full. These documents are certainly useful, but I would not treat them as anything more than an arbitrary sampling.
- “Stability of the Iraqi Regime: Significant Vulnerabilities Offset by Repression” (April 2002): This is an April 2002 Intelligence Community Assessment on Iraq’s internal dynamics.
- “If Saddam Should Accept Exile…” (March 18, 2003): DCI Red Cell memorandum addressing the appropriate way to respond if Saddam accepted an offer to go into exile.
- “Exploiting the ‘Saddam in Exile’ Gambit” (March 13, 2003): DCI Red Cell report addressing the implications of offering Saddam the option to go into exile.
- “Iraq: Saddam’s Eleventh-Hour Options” (March 11, 2003): SEIB entry addressing Saddam’s options on the eve of war. Note that this is not included in the SEIB release above, although it undoubtedly should have been.
- “Iraq: Prospects for Confrontation” (July 17, 1998): Intelligence community brief addressing Iraqi strategy.
- “Iraq: Saddam’s Next Moves” (March 2, 1999): Sense of the Community memorandum on Iraqi strategy.
- “Iraq: Potential of a Coup During Coalition Attacks” (October 7, 2002): Intelligence Community Brief, primarily on the possibility for a military coup against Saddam after the start of a military operation against him. Does, however, contain some more general observations on the possibility of anti-Saddam coup.
- “A More Confrontational Saddam? Iraqi Intentions and Actions” (November 2, 1995): National Intelligence Council memorandum on Iraqi strategy.
- “Iraq’s Internal Security and Prospects for a Coup” (c. 2002): This document has no date or identifying markings. I received it as part of a FOIA request for documents from 2002-2003, and I believe it likely dates to late 2002.
- “The Iraqi Ba’th Party: Inexorably Tied to Saddam” (October 31, 2002): CIA analysis of the past, present, and future of the Ba’ath Party.
- “Iraq: Saddam Maneuvering to Survive 2002” (February 15, 2002): CIA analysis of Iraqi strategy.
- “The Iraqi Senior Office Corps: Shaped by Pride, Prejudice, Patrimony and Fear” (March 18, 2003): This document is heavily redacted and, evidently missing pages, but contains a page of summary that might be useful to someone.
- “Saddam’s Preparations for War: Intentions and Capabilities” (October 2002): This is second (and far less famous) National Intelligence Estimate prepared on Iraq in the fall of 2002. It focuses on Saddam’s conventional military capabilities and plans.
Defense Intelligence Agency
- “Attitudes of Kurds, Shia, and Sunnis in Post-Saddam Iraq” (March 2003): Defense Intelligence Assessment concerning Iraqi dynamics after a U.S. invasion to overthrow Saddam.
- “Iraqi Denial and Deception: Countertargeting Methods” (c. Feb 1998): Defense Intelligence Assessment concerning Iraqi strategy.
- “Iraqi Terrorist Threat in Anticipation/Response to Hostilities with the US” (September 18, 2002)
Office of the Secretary of Defense
Most of the documents listed here were not released to me under FOIA/MDR. I found most of them in various FOIA reading rooms, but these are often incredibly hard to use. Thus, I am reposting these documents here for increased visibility. I have not organized or indexed them beyond what was already done.
- Rumsfeld MDR Release: 1,362 pages of Department of Defense documents released to Donald Rumsfeld in response to Mandatory Declassification Review requests (not exclusive to Iraq, although it is a major focus). Some of these are available on Rumsfeld’s website, but many are not. These have no particular organizational scheme, but you can search the OCRed text.
- OSD Policy Documents: So far as I can determine from FOIA logs, these documents were released in response to a FOIA request seeking all Iraq-related documents from the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. They are of high research value and each of the three releases has a useful index.
- “Ultimatum Strategy — Exile and Asylum as an Alternative to War” (March 4, 2003): This is a proposal to issue an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein and a handful of top-tier Iraqi officials, offering protection against prosecution if they choose to voluntarily go into exile.
- “Amnesty and Regime Change” (August 23, 2003): Early proposal to offer Saddam and his inner circle amnesty in return for exile.
- “POTUS Meeting, 5 Feb 2003“: Rumsfeld’s summary of a meeting with top officials on February 5 — includes a timeline for action on Iraq.
Department of State (INR)
- “Iraq – Ever So Many Options” (August 12, 2002): INR analysis of Iraqi strategy.
- “Iraq – Saddam Riding Higher than Ever” (September 7, 2001): INR analysis of Iraqi conditions.
- “Saudi Arabia/Iraq — What Riyadh Wants” (February 15, 2002): INR analysis of Saudi views on Saddam/Iraq.
Imad Hage
Imad Hage was a Lebanese-American businessman who attempted to serve as an intermediary between the United States and Iraq in early 2003. The existence of this diplomatic channel was reported, more or less simultaneously, by several news outlets in November 2003 (The New York Times, Knight Ridder, Newsweek, and ABC News).
At the same time that Hage was involved in these efforts, he was detained at Dulles airport (on January 28, 2003) after a handgun was found in his checked luggage. This led to an investigation and prosecution of Hage, which provides some (indirect) insight into the diplomatic channel.
- Declaration by Imad Hage (June 1, 2004): This is a sworn declaration submitted by Hage in connection with his prosecution for the Dulles airport incident.