c.kwan – Page 2 – Globalization: Are You In or Are You Out?

Confidential U.N. report details North Korea’s front companies in China

China was seen as taking a hard stance against North Korea when it said it would ban coal imports from the hermit kingdom. According to an unpublished UN report, North Korea “is flouting sanctions through trade in prohibited goods, with evasion techniques that are increasing in scale, scope and sophistication. The North Korean schemes are ‘combining to significantly negate the impact’ of international sanctions.”

China has served as front for North Korea’s illicit trades which undermines the U.N. sanctions that China has voiced support for. However, there is no direct evidence of China directly helping North Korea. North Korea has entities that operate in China and the U.N. report has a long running list of Chinese companies that have help North Korea evade the sanctions.

For example, North Korea would buy cheap electronics in Hong Kong and turn them into military grade radios.

“The global network consisted of individuals, companies and bank accounts in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Middle East,” the report stated.

Is there an organization that can monitor the trade or complex networks of trade and financing? The closest one is probably the WTO but are they suppose to monitor and enforce the financial restrictions when the U.N. Security council imposes sanctions? These sanctions have no effect whatsoever when one of the big powers, China in this case, is actually enabling North Korea to counteract the sanctions.

China and North Korea Reveal Sudden, and Deep, Cracks in Their Friendship

As Sarah kindly shared, China suspended coal imports from North Korea, which is expected to a blow to the North Korean economy as China accounts for 90% of their trade and coal is their number one export and accounts for 35% of their economy. This is a sign of China and North Korea’s deteriorating relationship, which previously was viewed as a strong alliance. In response to the suspension of coal imports, North Korea use strong language saying that China has “mean behavior” and “dancing to the tune of the U.S.” Many experts are shocked by the Chinese taking strong action to further the U.N sanctions and North Korea’s retaliatory speech. It seems now that even with stronger sanctions by their primary ally that North Korea will be difficult to stop.

As Yan Xuetong, the director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University puts it, “In terms of diplomacy, I see no solution…China had no choice but to accept the North as a nuclear-armed state. That was because China had only two options: either a nuclear North Korea that was friendly toward China or a nuclear North Korea that was unfriendly.”

It seems like the United States and the rest of world who never had friendly relationships with North Korea might be left with only one option, a nuclear-armed North Korea and that might restart or already restarting a nuclear arms race. Which entity, international organization or country will be able to stop it?

Russia Deploys Missile, Violating Treaty and Challenging Trump

It seems that the world nuclear powers are trying to test their limits and how the new Trump administration will react. After North Korea tested their missiles, it’s Russia’s turn as they deployed a missile last week. This is a violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (I.N.F. Treaty) signed by President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev. This treaty bans American and Russian intermediate-range land missiles. This is not the first time Russia has violated this treaty because it realized this treaty does not work for them. Russia tested a ground missile before in 2014 during the Obama administration, which “sought to persuade” Russia to “correct” their violation of the treaty. While this treaty is technically a bilateral treaty with the former Soviet Union, it is more of a multilateral treaty because it includes the former Soviet bloc countries. Russia’s defense for their actions is that almost all of their neighbors are also developing weapons.

“Jon Wolfsthal, who served as a nuclear weapons expert on the National Security Council during the Obama administration, said the United States, its NATO allies, Japan and South Korea needed to work together to put pressure on Russia to correct the violation.” For the record, the Trump administration has nothing to say other than, “We have made very clear our concerns about Russia’s violation, the risks it poses to European and Asian security, and our strong interest in returning Russia to compliance with the treaty.”

When it comes to big powers, China, United States, and Russia, when the international communities just issue strong warnings and tell them they did something wrong, they shrugged it off and ignore and continues their activities. Who is able to enforce the I.N.F. treaty? Not the UN because the United States and Russia both sit on the Security Council. NATO? What can NATO do? Bring Russia to an international court for them to ignore the judgement as China did with the South China Sea? Definitely, with North Korea just showing off their weapons, Russia will not cease their missile testing anytime soon.

UN Security Council condemns North Korea missile launch

This is a follow up to my previous post on North Korea’s missile launch.

The UN Security Council had an urgent meeting following North Korea’s missile launch. The result from that meeting is the UN Security Council “condemns” North Korea and “urged its members to ‘redouble efforts’ to enforce sanctions.” In other words, no new action or sanctions are going to be taken against North Korea. The UN has imposed sanctions against North Korea since 2006. Last December, the council resolved to cut North Korea’s coal and metals exports, which will cost the country about $800 million a year.

It seems that the UN Security Council is at a loss on how to handle North Korea, seeing that they just repeat their stern warnings and put up sanctions against a country that doesn’t have much to offer or much trading partners other than China. Will that leave us with military action? Military action will only aggravate North Korea and put the neighboring countries and the United States in danger.

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile and China’s Awkward Position

North Korea fired a ballistic missile on Saturday to test the new Trump administration according to experts, as reported by Aljazeera. Although seeing how Trump reacts is only icing on the cake, North Korea’s intention is “drawing global attention to the North by boasting its nuclear and missile capabilities,” according to South Korea’s Defense Ministry.

With instances of North Korea acting up, it is never just a United States issue. It may be the one issue that unites the big powers in Asia, in terms of condemning North Korea’s actions. The UN Security Council actually passed resolutions on North Korea, barring North Korea from using any ballistic missile technology. The six sets of sanctions that the council has imposed on North Korea has not deterred the country from developing their ballistic missiles as Kim Jong-Un boasted last month that they are in the final stages of building an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program.

China has the closest relations with North Korea, accounting for 70% of its trade and provides food and energy aid. In The Washington Post article “With friends like these: China’s awkward position after North Korea’s missile test,” China views this as a test of Sino-U.S. relations as Trump had an “extremely cordial” call with China to support its “One China” policy. The missile test has come at a time when the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe is visiting the U.S. and when South Korea has impeached its president. China has been against the U.S deploying its antimissile Terminal High Altitude Aerial Defense system (THAAD) in the region but with North Korea’s actions will undermine their campaign.

The United States, Japan, and South Korea has called an urgent meeting of the UN Security council. If the previous UN sanction did not work on North Korea, what will work? China might be the only country with any pull with North Korea but how far are they willing to act as China has the greatest fear of a destabilized North Korea?

U.S., China military planes come inadvertently close over South China Sea

Reuters reports that U.S. Navy P-3 plane and a Chinese military aircraft had a close encounter over the South China Sea. U.S. Pacific Command said that the U.S aircraft was on an “routine mission operating in accordance to international law.” It is unclear which law that refers to.

However, in the situation with the South China Sea, one international law in regards to maritime territory is the 1982 United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This provided guidelines and rules on boundaries, sea trade, and management of marine natural resources for countries. As this Mic article, “Why Trump’s China policy is dangerous for the Pacific Region and the U.S.,” points out, the United States did not signed this agreement but observes the laws in UNCLOS. According to UNCLOS, a country’s maritime boundary is 12 nautical miles from its shore. The South China Sea is beyond China’s boundaries.

China did sign UNCLOS even though it now realizes this agreement does not favor them as described in this The Diplomat article, “China and UNCLOS: An Inconvenient History.”

Other countries had conflicts with China over the South China Sea. The Phillippines had successfully brought an arbitration case against China in July 2016, in which the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at the Hauge ruled that the Chinese activities in the South China Sea are illegal. Despite the decision against China, China ignore it and still continues to build on the South China Sea. The New York Times article, “Tribunal Rejects Beijing’s Claims in South China Sea,” suggests that the decision only opens more room for discussions and negotiations.

What can stop China from building in the South China Seas if international law and arbitration has proven ineffective in stopping China?

The UN would not be able to do anything about this because China sits on the security council and will veto any resolution. The countries in that surrounding area are smaller than China and the military is not as large as China’s. The United States have a military presence in the Pacific Ocean as a result of WWII.

Does China actually have a right in the South China Sea? If they do, what international law will justify that when the ruling clearly states that China has no justification?

China’s Intelligent Weaponry Gets Smarter

China’s technology and artificial intelligence development is making significant progress that the United States has undermined. The United States has always assumed they are in the lead in technological advances. According to the article, “Andrew Ng, chief scientist at Baidu, said the United States may be too myopic and self-confident to understand the speed of the Chinese competition.”

While in the past, most defense technology has been developed by the government. Most advanced technology now is being but private technology companies. While Chinese companies have a relationship with the Chinese government, American companies cannot do same.”But if you’re thinking about the big, iconic tech companies, they can’t become defense contractors and still expect to get access to the Chinese market.”

This article is an example of the US losing some of its power and China is quickly expanding its power.