Month: May 2017

Taiwan is seeking to be included in this month’s World Health Assembly, organized by the World Health Organization. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan under its “One China” policy. Taiwan has a self-ruling government. Since President Tsai Ing-Wen of has taken office, China repeatedly blocked Taiwan’s participation in international organizations to prevent Taiwan from having any international visibility or influence.

As China’s world influence grows, Taiwan’s attempts to participate in international organizations will be difficult.

North Korea has successfully launched a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan. This has hasten the time estimated that North Korea could develop an intercontinental ballistic missile from five years to one year. The missile is the most advanced that the world has seem from North Korea. It flew for about 30 minutes.

It is interesting timing on North Korea’s part. South Korea has just put in place a new liberal President, Moon Jae-in, who favors dialogue with North Korea.

“We keep our door open for dialogue with North Korea, but we must act decisively against North Korean provocations so that it will not miscalculate,” Mr. Moon was quoted as saying by his office. “We must show that dialogue is possible when the North changes its attitude.”

The United States, Japan, and South Korea has condemned the attacks. There is an urgent UN Security Council meeting request from these three nations.

It will be interesting to see how the new South Korean government act in the UN and in response to North Korea’s actions.

President Trump is not going to pull out of the deal, but he vows to renegotiate. Here are industries that would be largely affected by the deal:

1. Automotive industry. Interestingly, this is the same industry that will likely suffer as a result of Brexit. Last year, the United States imported 1.6 million vehicles from Mexico, but about 40% of the value of those cars contained parts from the US. Restricting this trade could actually make the US auto industry less competitive, and rather than bringing back jobs, jobs would go to other countries like China or India. The Center for Automative Research suggests about 30K jobs could be lost in Michigan alone.
2. Apparel. American textile producers shipped more than $11 billion in goods to Canada and Mexico last year.
3. Agriculture. As we know, American exports a lot of corn to Mexico, and Mexico exports avocados to the US and Canada. But, the effects in this industry wouldn’t be felt as much as the auto industry.
4. Medical devices. The US imports about 30 percent of its medical devices and supplies, and Mexico is a leading supplier. Moving this industry back to the US would be very complicated, considering the FDA has to sign off on any changes in factories.

It will be interesting to see how industry leaders respond to trade negotiations. General Electric, for one, has come out in strong support of NAFTA.

One Belt One Road is a Chinese trade initiative conceived in 2013, and China is courting other world leaders to support it. It’s not only about Chinese interests and trade but about projecting Chinese power in a different way. What’s so fascinating about this to me is the way it’s being romanticized. There’s even a narrative aimed at kids. The state’s China Daily newspaper is running a web series of an American father telling his kid about “China’s idea which belongs to the world.” Here are the basics of the idea:

-China wants to put 100s of billions of dollars in infastructure around the world, reviving ancient trade routes

-Ports, pipelines, railways, industrial hubs, would integrate more than 60 countries and 60% of the world’s population.

-This road would boost the Chinese economy, increase Chinese access to oil, establish trading partners for the future

The Trump administration pushed back their decision about whether to stay in the Paris Climate Agreement again, but Secretary of State Rex Tillerson signed an international declaration  acknowledging climate change in the arctic this week.  Tillerson and Matthis have both made statements that climate change is not only an environmental issue, but a security and world order issue as well. Hopefully the Trump administration follows their advice.

European leaders have expressed concern over the growing number of casualties among migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean to EU countries. An estimated 43,000 people have fled Libya on boats this year and 1,300 have died while at sea, including nearly 250 migrants in the last few days after two overcrowded vessels sank. Earlier this year, EU leaders agreed to millions in funding to help the Libyan coast guard as well as provide support to refugee camps and assist migrants. The EU faced backlash from human rights groups who noted that Libya is incredibly dangerous for migrants. European efforts seem like a failure so far, but there is certainly no easy way to address this problem and prevent further loss of life.

President Trump has approved a plan to provide military weapons and support to the Syrian Kurds in their fight against ISIS, including helping them retake Raqqa. Turkey, a NATO ally, has previously opposed the idea because they insist that the Kurds work closely with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a listed terrorist organization. Turkey also fears that the weapons supplied to the Kurds may be used against their forces in the future. American officials noted that the supply of weapons will be limited to help the Kurds carry out specific operations and excess equipment will be retrieved at the end of each mission. It will likely be a topic of concern at next week’s meeting between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and could potentially damage their alliance.

How much benefit Kushner Family could get since Trump became the president of the US? Do the family make deals with Chinese government or not?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/08/us/politics/kushner-china-visa-eb-5.html

 

What Macron is going to face is still challenging. Without support from a party, he has to get control of the parliament. Otherwise, he may do nothing on a series of reforms.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/macron-turns-to-task-of-securing-a-government-1494273763

Cyber threats and attacks are becoming more common, sophisticated and damaging. The Alliance is faced with an evolving complex threat environment. State and non-state actors can use cyber attacks in the context of military operations. In recent events, cyber attacks have been part of hybrid warfare. NATO and its Allies rely on strong and resilient cyber defences to fulfil the Alliance’s core tasks of collective defence, crisis management and cooperative security. NATO needs to be prepared to defend its networks and operations against the growing sophistication of the cyber threats and attacks it faces.

Source : www.nato.int