Author: h.zhong

The 60 year old EU is facing many problems. Eg, the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, the rise of populism party (advocating nationalism and abandoning EU), an aggressive Russia under Putin and a “betrayed” US under Trump… What’s worse, some issues above increases EU’s members crisis of faith to EU. In this situation, “a closer union” may not be the right antidote to EU.

The article gives us an interesting proposal: “What is really needed is a creative rethink of the entire European project: The most obvious idea is to drop the rigid one-size-fits-all model and adopt the greater flexibility of a network. ” In other words, there will be a multi-speed, multi-tier Europe under this model; members of EU could be bound to each other with different levels of integration.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21719188-it-marks-its-60th-birthday-european-union-poor-shape-it-needs-more?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07

The article points out two facts:

1. Trump is prioritizing America’s dealings with big powers like Russia and China over its security commitments to small nations.
2. In addition to the point above, Trump’s promotion of nationalism, skepticism of free trade, criticism of traditional US allies… contributes to a new consequential dynamic in international affairs: the slow-motion fraying of US-Europeans relations.

It also leads to European nations distrust to the new US administration. The author predicts that they are going to find a new way to protect themselves without strong support from the US.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/03/trump-tillerson-nato/520254/

Last month, Trump vowed his support for NATO, which might be a little relief for some European countries. However, he still strongly pushes other NATO members to compromise on “allied responsibility-sharing”. Specifically, this article mentions Germany, which Trump tweeting that it owes “vast sums of money to NATO”.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-22/trump-to-visit-brussels-in-may-to-meet-with-nato-leaders

Huntsman is well-known in China because he is an ambassador who is fluent in Mandarin Chinese. However, the most interesting part in this article is how Trump begin his new diplomatic relationship with Russia in a time he is investigated about his relationship with Russia during his campaign. That’s why Huntsman’s nomination attracts so much attention this time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/europe/jon-huntsman-jr-ambassador-russia.html?_r=0

 

I guess, neither big countries want the unification of North Korea and South Korea. If any external force tries to intervene in Korea peninsula and change current situation, Korea peninsula might become another balkan peninsula, fueling another world war.

The US government is aimed to press Beijing to exert more pressure on North Korea. But I doubt the North Korea is still “under control of” its big brother — Beijing. How effective economic transaction from China would be working?

http://time.com/4700527/rex-tillerson-asia-china-japan-south-north-korea/

The article was concluded with “without the WTO it would be the law of the jungle.” It is also addressed in the article that “the mention of section 301 implies the Trump administration might start going outside the global rules of the WTO system.”

If more and more main powers(like US, UK, France) withdraw their “transferred power” back from international organizations they’ve authorized before, it is a horrible trend. It shows distrust to current machinery of global cooperation.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21717998-it-will-be-hard-deal-china-today-if-it-were-japan-1980s-trum

Under this circumstance, I think it’s unwise for Beijing to put pressure on South Korea government by using “economic tool”. The deciding factor made South Korea agree to deploy THAAD is endless provocations from North Korea. While in the eye of Chinese decision-maker, whether Kim dynasty is a evil regime may not be so important. Beijing decides to remain Kim dynasty because it could pose threats to “West bloc” led by the US.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-05/south-korea-vows-to-protect-firms-amid-china-pressure-over-thaad

In this case, the destiny of an international organization–the EU may rely on the election outcome of France. Either Emmanuel Macron who embraces globalization revitalize the EU, or Marine Le Pen who blasts globalization wreck it.

The root cause is international organizations get power from sovereign nations’ authorization. This limit determines why sometimes international organizations may become powerless or ineffective

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21717814-why-french-presidential-election-will-have-consequences-far-beyond-its-borders-vote

The best antidote to the politics of Trump or Le Pen is a course in Western Civ.

The article was concluded by “We’ve since raised generations to believe none of this (values of west civilization), only to be shocked by the rise of anti-Western politics.” In this article, the rise of anti-Western politics refers to Trump, Le Pen(the president of the National Front, a far right political party) and Lavrov(currently the Foreign Minister of Russia). I believe, all those who are nationalists and prefer anti-globalization may belong to those anti-Western civilizations. The world today is different from what it is twenty or even ten years ago. Many western countries are losing power and at least we may say they are no longer powerful as they used to be. There are some kinds of shifting balance of power. Some western countries want to take shrinking foreign policy while the emerging power may become more aggressive. Multi-polar world is not ready yet. But how can we reach to that with such kind of anti-gloealiztion trend?

The article came from:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-we-still-want-the-west-1487635725