Globalization: Are You In or Are You Out?

The Stuff that Nightmares Are Made Of?

Vitaly Komar, a Moscow-born artist, put his own chilling spin on the famous photo of FDR, Churchill and Stalin meeting in Yalta. In this Sunday’s New York Times Komar explains:

“I had this vision when Donald Trump was elected. In the old Yalta, there was a big difference between Stalin and the other two: He cared only about his power. Now I see these leaders — Mr. Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping — and they all seem to care only about their power. This has united them, finally.”

PS Who is that guy in the back? Maybe he can save us all.

E.U. Parliament Votes to Ratify Canada Trade Deal and Send Trump a Message

This article gives a glimpse into how the anti-globalization views of the Trump Administration could impact trade deals between other countries. The trade deal discussed in this article has been negotiated over 7 years, so it’s not a direct response to Trump, but he is mentioned by supporters of the deal. “‘We want to make clear in this vote that we don’t want to build walls, we want to build bridges,’ said Manfred Weber, a prominent member of the European Parliament from Germany.” The deal isn’t final yet – it must still be ratified by national and some regional parliaments across the EU, and the Canadian parliament.

If more similar deals start between other countries, will the US be kept out of the loop? Will this lessen our position of power and influence in the world?

UN Security Council condemns North Korea missile launch

This is a follow up to my previous post on North Korea’s missile launch.

The UN Security Council had an urgent meeting following North Korea’s missile launch. The result from that meeting is the UN Security Council “condemns” North Korea and “urged its members to ‘redouble efforts’ to enforce sanctions.” In other words, no new action or sanctions are going to be taken against North Korea. The UN has imposed sanctions against North Korea since 2006. Last December, the council resolved to cut North Korea’s coal and metals exports, which will cost the country about $800 million a year.

It seems that the UN Security Council is at a loss on how to handle North Korea, seeing that they just repeat their stern warnings and put up sanctions against a country that doesn’t have much to offer or much trading partners other than China. Will that leave us with military action? Military action will only aggravate North Korea and put the neighboring countries and the United States in danger.

World’s Largest Refugee Camp to Remain Open in Kenya

http://time.com/4665125/dadaab-camp-refugee-camp-open-ruling/

Last week, the Kenyan courts blocked the government’s order to shut down the world’s largest refugee camp. More than 200,000 refugees are staying at Dadaab Camp in Kenya after fleeing Somalia which is under constant threat from terrorist attacks by al-Shabab. The judge ruled in favor of several rights groups, arguing that the government’s order to close the camp violates the Kenyan constitution and international treaties that protect refugees fleeing from war-torn areas. Somalia was one of the countries affected by President Trump’s temporary travel ban and 140 Somali refugees scheduled to travel to the United States were sent back to the camp.

A Crack in an Antarctic Ice Shelf Grew 17 Miles in the Last Two Months

A crack in Larsen C’s ice shelf in the Antarctic peninsula has been growing at a rapid rate and is poised to become the largest iceberg ever recorded. The Larsen A and B ice shelves have already broken away from the glacier in the 1990’s and 2000’s. The Larsen C ice shelf serves as a layer of protection and structural support for glaciers. When the ice shelf breaks, it will make the glacier even more vulnerable to destruction, leading to sea level rise.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/07/science/earth/antarctic-crack.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FGlobal%20Warming&action=click&contentCollection=science®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=8&pgtype=collection

The countries most affected by an increase of sea level rise tend to be in developing regions of the world, like Bangladesh, India, China, and Vietnam. There’s an ongoing debate of whose responsibility it is to help protect developing countries from climate crises. The majority of  carbon emitted that has lead to this point was by industrialized nations and regions, like the U.S., Europe, and now China. But the countries that will be most effected by climate change will be in developing regions like Africa and South Asia.

https://www.cgdev.org/page/mapping-impacts-climate-change

 

Renewed Conflict and Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine

Last week, the UN Security Council met to discuss the humanitarian emergency developing in eastern Ukraine as a result of renewed conflict between government-controlled Kyiv (supported by the West) and separatist rebels (backed by Russia). The Security Council was briefed on the conflict and the potential for a humanitarian crisis should fighting continue. More than 10,000 explosions over the course of 24 hours threatened to damage critical infrastructure and access to basic necessities, including heat and hot water, for nearly 1 million civilians in Donetsck City. According to the International Crisis Group, 3.8 million people are displaced in the country and approximately 2,000 civilians have died since the conflict began. The UN pledged its full support to peace efforts in Ukraine by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

At the meeting, Ukraine claimed that Russia violated the Minsk Agreements and escalated the conflict. The U.S. representative called for Russia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and cease its occupation of Crimea before it would consider lifting any sanctions.

The conflict in Ukraine brings about several questions regarding the role of international relations, particularly between the United States and Russia, and the UN in how to best address the conflict and help prevent a humanitarian crisis from escalating.

 

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile and China’s Awkward Position

North Korea fired a ballistic missile on Saturday to test the new Trump administration according to experts, as reported by Aljazeera. Although seeing how Trump reacts is only icing on the cake, North Korea’s intention is “drawing global attention to the North by boasting its nuclear and missile capabilities,” according to South Korea’s Defense Ministry.

With instances of North Korea acting up, it is never just a United States issue. It may be the one issue that unites the big powers in Asia, in terms of condemning North Korea’s actions. The UN Security Council actually passed resolutions on North Korea, barring North Korea from using any ballistic missile technology. The six sets of sanctions that the council has imposed on North Korea has not deterred the country from developing their ballistic missiles as Kim Jong-Un boasted last month that they are in the final stages of building an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program.

China has the closest relations with North Korea, accounting for 70% of its trade and provides food and energy aid. In The Washington Post article “With friends like these: China’s awkward position after North Korea’s missile test,” China views this as a test of Sino-U.S. relations as Trump had an “extremely cordial” call with China to support its “One China” policy.  The missile test has come at a time when the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe is visiting the U.S. and when South Korea has impeached its president. China has been against the U.S deploying its antimissile Terminal High Altitude Aerial Defense system (THAAD) in the region but with North Korea’s actions will undermine their campaign.

The United States, Japan, and South Korea has called an urgent meeting of the UN Security council. If the previous UN sanction did not work on North Korea, what will work? China might be the only country with any pull with North Korea but how far are they willing to act as China has the greatest fear of a destabilized North Korea?

America’s presidentAn insurgent in the White House

As Donald Trump rages against the world he inherited as president, America’s allies are worried—and rightly so

WASHINGTON is in the grip of a revolution. The bleak cadence of last month’s inauguration was still in the air when Donald Trump lobbed the first Molotov cocktail of policies and executive orders against the capital’s brilliant-white porticos. He has not stopped. Quitting the Trans-Pacific Partnership, demanding a renegotiation of NAFTA and a wall with Mexico, overhauling immigration, warming to Brexit-bound Britain and Russia, cooling to the European Union, defending torture, attacking the press: onward he and his people charged, leaving the wreckage of received opinion smouldering in their wake.

To his critics, Mr Trump is reckless and chaotic. Nowhere more so than in last week’s temporary ban on entry for citizens from seven Middle Eastern countries—drafted in secret, enacted in haste and unlikely to fulfil its declared aim of sparing America from terrorism. Even his Republican allies lamented that a fine, popular policy was marred by its execution.

In politics chaos normally leads to failure. With Mr Trump, chaos seems to be part of the plan. Promises that sounded like hyperbole in the campaign now amount to a deadly serious revolt aimed at shaking up Washington and the world.

The Cocktail Party

To understand Mr Trump’s insurgency, start with the uses of outrage. In a divided America, where the other side is not just mistaken but malign, conflict is a political asset. The more Mr Trump used his stump speeches to offend polite opinion, the more his supporters were convinced that he really would evict the treacherous, greedy elite from their Washington salons.

His grenade-chuckers-in-chief, Stephen Bannon and Stephen Miller, have now carried that logic into government (see Briefing). Every time demonstrators and the media rail against Mr Trump, it is proof that he must be doing something right. If the outpourings of the West Wing are chaotic, it only goes to show that Mr Trump is a man of action just as he promised. The secrecy and confusion of the immigration ban are a sign not of failure, but of how his people shun the self-serving experts who habitually subvert the popular will.

The politics of conflict are harnessed to a world view that rejects decades of American foreign policy. Tactically, Mr Trump has little time for the multilateral bodies that govern everything from security to trade to the environment. He believes that lesser countries reap most of the rewards while America foots the bill. It can exploit its bargaining power to get a better deal by picking off countries one by one.

Mr Bannon and others reject American diplomacy strategically, too. They believe multilateralism embodies an obsolete liberal internationalism. Today’s ideological struggle is not over universal human rights, but the defence of “Judeo-Christian” culture from the onslaught of other civilisations, in particular, Islam. Seen through this prism, the UN and the EU are obstacles and Vladimir Putin, for the moment, a potential ally.

Nobody can say how firmly Mr Trump believes all this. Perhaps, amid the trappings of power, he will tire of guerrilla warfare. Perhaps a stockmarket correction will so unsettle the nation’s CEO that he will cast Mr Bannon out. Perhaps a crisis will force him into the arms of his chief of staff and his secretaries of defence and state, none of whom is quite the insurgent type. But don’t count on it happening soon. And don’t underestimate the harm that could be done first.

Talking Trumpish

Americans who reject Mr Trump will, naturally, fear most for what he could do to their own country. They are right to worry (see article), but they gain some protection from their institutions and the law. In the world at large, however, checks on Mr Trump are few. The consequences could be grave.

Without active American support and participation, the machinery of global co-operation could well fail. The World Trade Organisation would not be worthy of the name. The UN would fall into disuse. Countless treaties and conventions would be undermined. Although each one stands alone, together they form a system that binds America to its allies and projects its power across the world. Because habits of co-operation that were decades in the making cannot easily be put back together again, the harm would be lasting. In the spiral of distrust and recrimination, countries that are dissatisfied with the world will be tempted to change it—if necessary by force.

What to do? The first task is to limit the damage. There is little point in cutting Mr Trump off. Moderate Republicans and America’s allies need to tell him why Mr Bannon and his co-ideologues are wrong. Even in the narrowest sense of American self-interest, their appetite for bilateralism is misguided, not least because the economic harm from the complexity and contradictions of a web of bilateral relations would outweigh any gains to be won from tougher negotiations. Mr Trump also needs to be persuaded that alliances are America’s greatest source of power. Its unique network plays as large a role as its economy and its military might in making it the global superpower. Alliances help raise it above its regional rivals—China in East Asia, Russia in eastern Europe, Iran in the Middle East. If Mr Trump truly wants to put America First, his priority should be strengthening ties, not treating allies with contempt.

And if this advice is ignored? America’s allies must strive to preserve multilateral institutions for the day after Mr Trump, by bolstering their finances and limiting the strife within them. And they must plan for a world without American leadership. If anyone is tempted to look to China to take on the mantle, it is not ready, even if that were desirable. Europe will no longer have the luxury of underfunding NATO and undercutting the EU’s foreign service—the closest it has to a State Department. Brazil, the regional power, must be prepared to help lead Latin America. In the Middle East fractious Arab states will together have to find a formula for living at peace with Iran.

A web of bilateralism and a jerry-rigged regionalism are palpably worse for America than the world Mr Trump inherited. It is not too late for him to conclude how much worse, to ditch his bomb-throwers and switch course. The world should hope for that outcome. But it must prepare for trouble.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21716026-donald-trump-rages-against-world-he-inherited-president-americas-allies-are-worriedand