Greece and Turkey were both admitted to NATO in 1952 with the hope relations between the two nations would improve. This has not necessarily been the case, and tensions between Greece and Turkey have flared up several times in the time since. In 1974, Greece and Turkey nearly went to war over Cyprus. According to Carnegie Europe, it wasn’t so much the NATO alliance that held the peace as it was the United States pressuring the two nations to come to terms, with the US “basically impos[ing] a ceasefire on Turkish forces operating in Cyprus.”
With the United States withdrawing from its leadership role in both NATO and the world, there is growing concern over the latest dispute between Turkey and other members of NATO. The core of this dispute is over energy and territorial waters. Turkey is attempting to drill for oil and gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and has begun venturing into waters claimed by Greece and Cyprus. Turkey claims it has equal rights to those resources, but this is, of course, disputed by Greece and Cyprus. Turkey has sent a drilling ship with a naval escort into Greek waters. Greece has responded with its own navy. Both nations have been conducting naval exercises and exchanging heated words.
Also drawn into this dispute is France, who backs Greece and Cyprus. Earlier this summer on June 10th, a French frigate on a mission for NATO tried to inspect a Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship it suspected was smuggling arms to Libya. It claims it was harassed by Turkish naval vessels accompanying the cargo ship. France accuses Turkey of violating the UN arms embargo. Turkey denies the allegations and claims the French frigate was the aggressor. Reuters reported that NATO conducted an investigation but swept the report under the rug to avoid further antagonizing Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. France has joined Cyprus’ calls for sanctions against Turkey if they fail to withdraw their vessels from Greece and Cyprus’ waters.
Erdoğan has lashed out at French president Emmanuel Macron in recent days, telling him “Don’t mess with Turkey” and accusing him of trying to be a new Napoleon, quite the projection from a man who appears to be determined to revive the Ottoman Empire. Some French commentators have suggested France cannot rely on NATO or Germany to reign in Turkey and must take the lead themselves. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged parties to find a diplomatic solution, but did add “We remain deeply concerned by Turkey’s ongoing operation surveying for natural resources in areas over which Greece and Cyprus assert jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean.” Given President Trump’s relationship with Erdoğan, it seems doubtful the US will take any meaningful action to halt Turkish aggression against fellow NATO members.
An interesting and accurate analysis, Stephanie. Erdogan has become increasingly assertive and aggressive in recent years, both internally and externally. For example, there is now evidence that the alleged plot to overthrow him might have been contrived, with the idea being that he could use it as an excuse to purge those he thought might rise up against him. But his aggressive foreign moves–both the conflict with Greece & Cyprus and Turkish forces operating in Syria–are more recent. I very much liked your conclusion, therefore, that it is “rich” that Erdogan is accusing Macron of having imperial ambitions when he himself seems to be trying at least to partially restore the Ottoman empire. And, of course, as a fellow aspiring authoritarian, our current president will do nothing to interfere. –Professor Wallerstein