Carrots and Sticks – The Chinese American Love Affair

It must be said that the author is not a shrewd expert on American-Chinese security relations, and even less has the foolishness to prove the opposite within a short blog. Nonetheless, on or around China´s 71^st National Day it is worth thinking about what exactly can make a rising state like China a foe or friend of a slowly but surely declining world power like the USA.

For a long time, the USA believed that it could maintain the upper hand and control, as in almost all regions of the world, and that it could enforce this with a mixture of reward and threat, in China as well. As Campbell et al[1] formulated it very aptly:

Neither carrots nor sticks have swayed China as predicted. Diplomatic and commercial engagement have not brought political and economic openness. Neither U.S. military power nor regional balancing has stopped Beijing from seeking to displace core components of the U.S.-led system. And the liberal international order has failed to lure or bind China as powerfully es expected.

Nixon´s visit to China in 1972 was a milestone to reformulate the relationship and opening America to a communist country that was isolated from the world. Sidelining the Soviet Union and China’s circumvention was a coup of the Nixon and Kissinger duo. With this, the policy of Strategic Engagement has started and the integration of China into the “American World Order”, economically and through international institutions. Not surprisingly, it was not human rights but the Cold War that defined the guiding principles. Common interests were dictated by trade and security. Hard facts were more important than the community of values of democracies. Note: trade and security against democracy.

More simply: American capital and consumption and Chinese production became increasingly inseparable. The triangle is now being completed by Africa which shall serve as a resource for raw materials. China was already a dominant empire in the eastern part of the world, and Africa was already the supplier of an even more important resource in the history of a current great power: human power.

The policy has not changed much after 1989: with the Soviet Union’s fading glory, the United States became the prima donna on the stage of world politics. And the US did believe to have the license, the absolute power, and the resources to guide and lead the world towards a happier and more democratic order. But did she? Being raised in a Soviet country I am painfully reminded and challenged to quote here Francis Fukuyama[2]

We remain at the end of history because there is only one system that will continue to dominate world politics, that of the liberal-democratic West.

Meaning that the mixture of capitalism and liberal democracy is the logical endpoint of human development? Without going into philosophical depth: it is not. And for sure not for China.

After 9/11 the American focus shifted more than ever to the Middle East – and the wars of the greatest democracy of the world in the Middle East were largely financed by Chinese loans. In exchange human-rights problems of China not only became marginal but some western states even managed to stamp Uyghurs as terrorists.[3]

So, sticks or carrots? How could a potential change in the White House influence Chinese-America relations? According to my earlier blog, I assume that Biden would take over some elements of the Trumpian policy. Yet, there is an important difference. It is significant whether Washington will be able to build a strong international coalition against China as the Obama administration tried. It could affect China more than Trump’s aggressive but by times inconsequent alliance policy.

[1] Kurt M. Campbell and Eloy Ratner, “The China Reckoning: How Beijing Defied American Expectations,” Foreign Affairs, (Vol. 96, No. 2) March/April 2018, pp. 60-70

[2] https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1002238464542684520

[3] Interestingly, Uyghurs have a strong sympathy for Hungarians which they esteem to be their big western brother.