Since the outbreak of the civil war back in 2011 and the country being divided into sub-states fighting among each other in proxy wars. The East zone is occupied by the Syrian-Kurds and was previously supported by the United States, until president Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. military forces in 2018. The Northern Western zones of Syria are under Turkish control, and the rest of the country is dominated with Syrian government forces supported by Russia and Iran.
Many believe that Syria is on the road of dismantling external forces, given that the U.S. has already withdrew its troop and concerns arise more profoundly around Turkey and its position since it was reported to withdraw its troops on October 19thin the northwest of Syria. Since observational posts were set up by the Turkish government to deescalate tension in Idlib region and northwest in general, the Syrian government has already surrounded several other Turkish observational posts by last year.
However, the Turkish government has reported that they are not considering evacuating another observational post. And they also indicated that withdrawing from Morek will have them consolidate their presence elsewhere in the region[1].
It has been noted that the withdrawal of Turkey was towards efforts of consolidating cease fire agreements with Russia back in March. Whether the withdrawal of Turkey from Morek is an indication of dismantling forces and cease fire or not. The country’s biggest enemy is Bashar al Assad a war criminal that now seeks sanction elevation from the U.S. to continue the war within his own country. The U.S does not have a vital interest in Eastern Syria anymore, not strategically vital for American national security[2]. Finally, Syria will be left with severe economic conditions being unable to rebuild the state due to the high sanctions imposed, and the 5.6 million refugees that have little incentive to come back in the country and rebuild it again. A country occupied by foreign powers from its north and east territories. A failed sate.
[1] BIA News Desk, “Turkey withdrawal from Morek base in Syria”, 20 October 2020.
[2]Robert S. Ford, The Syrian Civil War, April 2019.
Fatema,
The situation in Syria is indeed sad and complicated. With Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US involved, and with the Assad regime with the blood of thousands on his hands, it’s hard to know where to start in resolving the situation. As we noted in class, the civil war is probably about over since, with Russia and Iran’s help, Assad has destroyed most of the rebel forces in the country. But what will come next? As you indicated, the country is in ruins, and it will take billions and billions of dollars to re-build the cities and infrastructure. I don’t see any country stepping up to volunteer to pay for this. –Professor Wallerstein