Mehran Kamrava argues that Multipolarity on its own is not the source of instability in the Middle East region. This statement could be subject to many different perspectives, indeed instability in the region is stemmed from various reasons including different ideological perspectives, differences in defining power in the region and differences in reshaping power balance in the region, sectarian divergences among Sunni and Shia and the official collapse of Pan-Arabism.
Many could argue that, these reasons are stemmed for centuries and may not be new issues. But post 2011 the region has completely changed, the rise and fall of new hegemons. Turkey’s shift from the EU to being more focused on the Middle East and its “Neo-Ottoman” aspirations.[1]Iran and its ideology of rejecting the west in the region along with potential development nuclear program. Israel and its continuous expansionism policy regardless the acknowledgment of Palestinian in the region and with little concern to resolve the ongoing conflict. Saudi Arabia and its hostilities with Iran, and its embracement of Pan-Islamism that overcame the idea of Pan Arabism, along with is funding of radicalized Salafi constituency[2].
Since 2011 and the decline of many states such as Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. There have been new rising aspirations for the neighboring countries to challenge the regional hegemony and reorder balance of power. Resulting in foreseeable new threats to arise, new challenges in the region with the development of technology and AI. Only exacerbating the relations among states in the region and creating more tensions that will only lead to increasing mistrust and continuous hostilities in the region.
Israel’s new normalizing relations or peace agreement with countries of UAE, Bahrain and Sudan is not a step towards peace it is a temporary path to economic and mutual interests that may lead to higher tensions than before exacerbating the situation more in the future if disagreements occur. The real path to normalizing relations starts with normalization within the same country, starts with diplomacy and re-establishing peace negotiations with Palestine to settle the most ongoing prolong conflict till this very day. This is the way to reduce tensions, terrorism attacks and sustain peace.
[1]Mehran Karava, “Multipolarity and instability in the Middle East”, 2018
[2] Trevor Stanley, “Understanding the Origins of Wahabism and Salafism, 2005