One man’s joy is another man’s sorrow. This old saying might prove to be right – as cynical and brutal as that may sound. At least as far as India’s pre-pandemic dreams and the post-pandemic prospects for China are concerned, and related to the consequences of Corona on the power struggle in Asia. From the pen of Jeffrey Gettleman, The New York Times headlines under “Coronavirus shatters India´s big dreams”. Other media have already dealt extensively with the topic too. Is COVID-19 simply the last coffin nail for India’s earlier overheated and now crashed economy and the icing on the cake for China’s further rise? Or is this crisis a serious hit for the US in re-establishing itself as a global power?
On the one hand, Gettleman did a good job of collecting some facts. Although India is the world’s fifth-largest[1] economy by nominal GDP, it has suffered already in the past years the loss of momentum.[2] With the recent 24% decline,
India´s economy has shrunk faster than any other major nation’s,
according to NYT. The perspective of 200 million people in poverty and the ravaging virus with an estimated 80,000 new cases daily eats up labor and purchasing power. While government debt reaches historic highs, the churn of the market is unsettling investors. All at the same time. The article hints also correctly that China’s economy has recovered and growing again and mentions later the rise of anti-muslim feelings in India. We should go into this later.
On the other hand, the NYT article remains indebted especially to the American reader with an explanation of what this all should mean in the context of the USA. A regional great power with the world’s largest population in four years on the endless southern borders of China as a stabilizing ally and as a market would be of extreme interest to the USA. However, these seem to remain dreams not only in New Delhi but also in Washington DC. A major reason for this is logically the economic breakdown. But even if the two-third hopelessly outdated armament paired with the unbelievable Indian bureaucracy could be replaced overnight by a miracle[3], the inner instability will destroy the fruits. The Indian government has already taken the dangerous route of religious discrimination. While Christians are being persecuted more and more in the Middle East and Africa (with 245 million the most persecuted group in the world), in India the Muslims are the discriminated ones. Inciting religious impatience is in most cases profit-oriented. In the end, however, the suffering of a religious conflict is socialized (loss of human life, existence, cultural heritage) and the profits (seized property, land, political influence, etc.) privatized, while the economy shrinks. Thus, the USA will not only be weakened in the current economic struggle but will also gain another security problem in the form of an unstable regional power. Finally, I have been reminded of a Stephen M. Walt piece[4]: Once weakened and destabilized, which strategy India will choose? Balancing or bandwagoning?
On a personal note: While India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu just recently confirmed their will to work closely together, the first is blamed for the too strict lockdown which led to economic catastrophe, against the latter thousands demonstrate blaming him acting far too laxly in the pandemic and a second outbreak. Other countries, other customs.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
[2] A few years ago the very profitable diamond business already suffered in India. As a result of corruption and counterfeiting, some producers have shifted their focus.
[3] The blog author’s experience in his previous positions shows that a simple extension of framework agreements with the Indian government can often last 10 years. The danger that with every change of government (whichever contractual partner) everything will be rolled up again is inevitable.
[4] Walt, Stephen M. “Alliances: Balancing and Bandwagoning.” International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues. 11th ed. Eds. Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis. Pearson, 2013, pp. 125-131.
Thanks, Gabor, for this interesting blog post. The US-India relationship is, to use a common phrase: complicated. As the two largest democracies in the world, there should be a natural affinity between the two countries. Yet, in the past at least, India tended historically to tilt towards the Soviet Union, now Russia. This has now changed, though they still buy a significant amount of military hardware from the Russians.
You’re also correct that the COVID virus is hitting India hard–they are now #2 in total number of cases, second only to the US (a highly dubious distinction). And Modi has turned out to be far more interested in pushing Hindu nationalism than fixing the Indian bureaucracy and the Indian economy, which has been seriously lagging. But that said, from the standpoint of US efforts to balance China, further building the relationship remains highly attractive and, at the end of the day, essential. –Professor Wallerstein