This claim and the danger of an (again) Third World War is not a horror film scriptwriter´s mind spring. It can be attributed to the Israeli Settlement Minister Tzachi Hanegbi. The TV interview of the Likud politician from the Party of Prime Minister Netanyahu saying that
If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran
was quoted by several media worldwide, among them The Jerusalem Post[1].
Whether or not the pithy statements of the Likud politician are true; if one asks the Israelis or many Arabic states, there is an increased state of mind to be observed. Not without any reason. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal which was, diplomatically said, rejected by the Trump administration, is now to be dusted again, according to Mr. Bidens’ earlier statements. But is it still America after 4 years of Mr. Trump that determines something on the international stage or does it all depend more on the unity of its allies? We know, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, or according to Wallerstein[2], and more related to security policy
In the future, the United States is likely to fight in coalitions whose CP-defense readiness will be limited to some degree by the capabilities of its least prepared member.
Another question is whether we are dealing here with states or with some dictators and, as Sagan puts it
Such dictators often weaken their state institutions by prizing loyalty over professionalism in military and scientific organizations, thus impeding their nuclear ambitions[3]
And how will a Catholic democrat like Biden prepare for a dialogue with dictators (a “personalist regime”)? It seems Egypt, Syria, and Turkey are all in the pool and Saudi Arabia is well positioned too. How smart again from the Israeli to sign with them that deal…[4]
On the 45th Birthday of the “Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention” (BTWC), the first international treaty to eliminate a complete category of weapons of mass destruction we should commemorate these ancient weapons as well. It’s only a little reassuring that the nuclear danger is just one of many other dangers that, alongside COVID-19, threaten our civilization. The use of bacteria, viruses, and other active organic compounds, such as poisons or various drugs, during wars was a common practice already thousands of years ago. Infecting drinking wells with corpses, or even using human and animal feces on cold weapons.
So, we may look optimistically into the future and hope that even after the 45th President of the USA leaves the White House in an undefined time, no other tough man will find the red button in his office. We can destroy our world also without nukes so efficiently, can´t we?
[1] https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/israeli-minister-warns-of-war-if-biden-returns-to-iran-deal-648097
[2] Mitchel B. Wallerstein, “The Origins and Evolution of the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative,” in: Countering the Proliferation and Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Peter L. Hayes, Vincent J. Jodoin, and Alan R. Van Tassel, eds., New York: McGraw-Hill Co, 1998, Chp. 2 (pp. 21-36)
[3] Scott D. Sagan, “Armed and Dangerous: When Dictators Get the Bomb,” Foreign Affairs, (Vol. 97, No. 6) November/December 2018, pp. 35-43
[4] ibid.
Gabor,
At least for the moment, Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons does represent an existential threat to Israel but NOT to the US. But even given this fact, I do not expect the Israelis to move to attack Iran even if the US rejoins the JCPOA. I believe that they will wait and monitor closely Iranian behavior–including through espionage sources. It’s possible that the Biden administration could use the opportunity of its re-entry into the JCPOA to negotiate other changes in the Iranian approach that would work to the Israeli’s advantage. We shall see what 2021 brings in this regard.
–Professor Wallerstein