The United States is about to enter an interesting era in nuclear decisions. Critical points of US relations with Russia, Iran, and North Korea are about to rear its head. U.S. and Russia appear to be on the edge toward extension of their preexisting Nuclear Treaty that is about to expire. Iran has continued to amass nuclear fuel and Biden will have to decide whether he will be the one to step in and stop it. And in North Korea, Kim Jung-un rolled down the street last week their biggest atomic arsenal to date. Israel and Saudi Arabia, which shared President Trump’s deep antipathy toward Iran, may not be particularly thrilled with a Biden presidency.
Joe Biden’s extensive experience as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as vice president in the Obama administration may give all these nuclear nations a different feel during negotiations. Diplomacy and decency seem to have escaped the White House over the past 4 years, and I think it will be welcomed back on the international stage. It’s difficult to use the word “decency” when talking about weapons of mass destruction with the power to kill billions and potentially annihilate the entire planet, but it is reassuring that the leader of the free world, who has the power to press the button, has proven time and time again to choose decency over destruction.
While I may feel that way, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has said, “the United States is untrustworthy regardless who is in the White House.” While Iran may still be interested in entering a deal that relaxes their sanctions, their tumultuous relationship with Trump will not be easily forgotten.
While Trump has sported a friendly relationship with North Korean like no US President before, critics say, “Mr. Trump’s approach not only failed to persuade Mr. Kim to relinquish his arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles, it bought Mr. Kim time to strengthen them.” We saw just last month North Korea unveiling its largest ever intercontinental ballistic missile. “On Trump’s watch, the North’s nuclear weapons program has grown apace, its missile capabilities have expanded, and Pyongyang can now target the United States with an ICBM,” said Evans J.R. Revere, a former State Department official and expert on North Korea. How President Biden decides to take action to halt this unwanted growth may be one of the most important decisions during his presidency.
With the COVID pandemic clearly the number one priority of the new administration taking office January 20, 2021, resetting their relationships on the world stage has to be a close number two.
Gladstone, R. (2020, November 07). Biden to Face Long List of Foreign Challenges, With China No. 1. Retrieved November 09, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/world/americas/Biden-foreign-policy.html
Chris,
This is a good summary of the situation. The president made zero headway with North Korea, though it is true that they have not tested a nuclear weapon nor have they fired a long-range missile since then. But that could change at any time. Iran and the US remain at complete loggerheads, and it is not even clear that Iran would agree to go back to the old “status quo” under the JCPOA if the US re-joins. Biden has a very tough diplomatic challenge in both cases!
–Professor Wallerstein