The era of impunity for Saudi Arabia may be coming to an end as the Biden administration prepares to take office. The new administration will no doubt take a harder line on Saudi’s human rights record and its calamitous war in Yemen. The Biden administration also says it wishes to rejoin the JCPOA, which may be a legal and logistical challenge, but nonetheless signals an intention to calm tensions with Iran. The new administration will have to skillfully thread the needle by doing so while maintaining a strong relationship with Israel and its Gulf allies.
A shift in U.S. policy may lead Saudi to further cozy up to China, particularly to expand its civilian nuclear program. Saudi recently employed a Chinese company to build a facility for extracting yellowcake from uranium ore, and U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about Saudi plans for a nuclear weapons program.
The Kingdom’s fear of Iran in combination with its massive resources, hawkish leadership, and fear of U.S. abandonment could certainly fuel its nuclear ambitions and escalate an arms race in the Middle East.
Shana,
There seems little doubt that there WILL be a reassessment of US policy toward Saudi Arabia, though I would not expect that we will entirely reject them as a friendly, cooperating country (most of the time). For one thing, we still need some Saudi oil–and we really need them to continue to be a stabilizing force on world oil markets. For a second, the Biden administration will still have to contend with Iran, which has regional hegemonic aspirations and continues to make a lot of mischief in the region through its connection to and support for Hezbollah, Hamas and Assad in Syria. Finally, we certainly would not welcome the Saudis moving closer to the Chinese, who will increasingly be our peer competitor on the global stage.
So, for all these reasons, while I do expect to see recalibration, I don’t think it will be too sudden or dramatic.
–Professor Wallerstein