Secrets put people in harm’s way.
Have you ever come across The Blacklist series? Netflix´s hit is the purest treasure trove for quotes, and this one fits exactly to the topic of nuclear proliferation. If you watch season 2, you realize that it is not always just the states who can play the villain, but also people or a multinational group (“The Cabal” in the film) who can influence governments. Which makes one nervous, but later to that. So, what role relatively small states can play against world powers like the USA, China, or Russia? As Correra puts it briefly and aptly in the epilogue of his book about A.Q Khan [1] the most worrying question is
how much of the previously secret, tightly held knowledge on nuclear technology may now be circulating on the market?
The US has stated that it supports the nuclear ambitions of any state in the Middle East as long as it does not seek to develop a full fuel cycle, and the Obama administration set the treaty with the Emirates as an example to follow for other countries. But what was that with nuclear cooperation with Vietnam? (By the way a reliable ally, and as American know a formidable enemy.) The clear example of double standard means that nuclear proliferation in Asia is not as dangerous as in the Middle East? And the UAE as an example? And why should Japan and South Korea comply with IAEA regulations in the light of North Korea’s or Myanmar´s nuclear program?
Is it really about nuclear proliferation or more about the relations between the great powers and their vassal states? “The Cabal” quoted at the beginning was a “shadowy multinational group that holds positions of influence in government”[2] A.Q. Khan was for decades the most dangerous black-market dealer in nuclear technology. And Hydra is a multi-headed monster in Greek mythology.
[1] Corera, Gordon. Shopping for Bombs : Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the A.Q. Khan Network. Oxford University Press, 2006. ProQuest Ebook Central.
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blacklist_(season_2)
Gabor,
So there really IS a “deep state”? 🙂 There are a number of examples where the US (and others) worked assiduously to get states to give up there nuclear programs. The list includes: South Africa, Sweden, Brazil, Argentina, and more recently, Libya. Even in the world of Great Power politics, it is not obvious (at least to me) that world leaders think that their country’s interests would be advanced by having more nuclear powers. And, of course, the existing Nuclear Weapons States are under an obligation (not yet honored in the breach) through the NPT Treaty to eliminate ALL nuclear weapons. Black market smugglers, like AQ Khan, are obviously another matter; but the NPT “Additional Protocol” and some other steps that were taken after Khan’s activities were uncovered, will make this more difficult–at least I hope so!
–Professor Wallerstein