In the chapter “Who Could Be Planning A Nuclear Terrorist Attack? from her book “Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe”, author Allison Graham describes efforts by Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations to obtain nuclear, chemical and biological weapons to use on the United States, American Allies, and Russia. One of the themes that I feel the author is really trying to convey is how easily non-state entities like Al Qaeda and Aum Shinrykyo have demonstrated the ability to get their hands on the material necessary to create WMD’s and in the case of Aum Shinryko, deploy these weapons in devastating attacks on civilians.
Based on this information, I would say that although they are still dangerous, the threat of North Korea and Iran having WMD’s pales in comparison to the threat of non-state actors possessing these kinds of weapons. While the regimes running those countries can be described as erratic, they can at least be negotiated with. For example, despite their bellicose rhetoric, the Obama administration was able to successfully negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. However, when it comes to non-state actors there is really no one to negotiate and if and when they come into the possession of a WMD that they are able to use against the United States and its allies, there is not much we can do to prevent them.
Harry,
You make a valid point. Not only is it difficult to negotiate with the terrorist leadership (who must stay in hiding for fear of being assassinated, as bin Laden was), but there is little or nothing to hold at risk–i.e. to deter them. They have no cities, no facilities, etc. that can be threatened. And they have little regard for civilians whose lives may be lost if the US or other states were to counterattack. BTW, it’s not Allison Graham; it’s Graham Allison, who is a famous, male faculty member at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.