Author: SHAMMA SIDDIKA

The Middle East has long been grappling with environmental challenges such as water scarcity, desertification, and extreme temperatures. The Arab speaking countries in the Middle East are among the world’s most exposed states to the accelerating impacts of human-caused climate change. However the consequences of the climate change is felt unevenly across the region. Resource-poor countries that lack adaptive capacities like infrastructure, technology, and human and physical capital is suffering more acutely, especially as global warming contributes to the degradation of rural livelihoods and food security. The effects of global warming will magnify preexisting inequities and decades of unsustainable government policies, particularly those related to water and land management. For example, there had been massive dislocation of people in Lebanon due to drought.

I really liked when the writer of this article said that “In fact, there may be a day, very soon, where the United States will need to return to active Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy — not based on land for peace, but sun and fresh water for peace.” I saw a documentary few years back where it said that the “earth is going nowhere in time it will regenerate , it will be peaceful. There may not be people but the Earth will regenerate because it has all the time in the world but we human beings don’t.” That is true, with so limited time in the earth we have been fighting each other over land, resources and power instead of living harmoniously. Whatever is currently happening in world Isreal vs Palestine, Russia vs Ukraine, China bullying its neighbours is only causing more harm. In my opinion an extreme climate crisis is required to awaken the leaders that they should be working with each other rather than against each other. The pandemic has showed us that we human beings are so inferior that we failed to fight against an invisible virus, during the pandemic, all the weapons that were made to kill people were useless against that one virus.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint because of the large volumes of oil that flow through the strait. In 2018, its daily oil flow averaged 21 million barrels per day. The inability of oil to transit a major chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to substantial supply delays and higher shipping costs, resulting in higher world energy prices. I still remember about the blockage at the Suez Canal during the pandemic and how it hindered the world trade in few days. Like, the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal is one of the busiest trade routes in the world and the blockage of the Canal roughly cost 12 per cent of global trade and was holding up trade valued at over $9 billion per day.

Strait of Hormuz being only possible way for the ships to move back and forth from the Persian Golf on the West and Oman in the East. Persian Golf is particularly important as 8 countries share the southern coast. Recent attacks on the narrow waterway has fuelled tensions between Iran and USA. Relations between Washington and Tehran have deteriorated since Trump withdrew last year from a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, and reimposed and extended sanctions to throttle Iran’s vital oil trade. I really hope the rising tensions between Iran and USA do not lead to bloodshed. If Irans halts the passageway it will cripple global trade.

Samuel Huntington in his Essay “Managing the Clash of Civilisations” posits that cultural and civilizational identities would shape the future landscape of international relations. According to Huntington, the world would witness a “clash of civilizations” where major cultural entities, rather than nation-states, would be the primary actors on the global stage.

There is a term in the essay “Thucydides’ trap” which describes tensions and dynamic between one rising power and one ruling power. It imparts the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power the most likely outcome is war. Right now I see an ongoing economic war between China and USA. China trying to displace dollars and increase the flow of Yuan. It is trying to claim its territories wrongly. The countries that USA do not support China is extending its support towards those countries. On top of that there are cultural differences between these two countries. China is a high context country, their tone of communication is implicit and subtle. Whereas USA is a low context country their way of communication is verbal and straightforward. For that reason sometimes what China does is unacceptable or shocking to USA. For instance, the propaganda of China sending over spy ballon to USA has an interesting cultural twist to it.

China and the U.S. have different explanations for why the balloon was flying over. the U.S. ; Beijing maintains it was a “civilian unmanned airship” for weather research simply blown . The U.S. says it was a “high altitude surveillance balloon” attempting to spy on strategic sites within the country. Because, USA shot down the ballon, Beijing declined all of USA’s hotline call, instead of clearly communicating. Officially, China’s defense ministry said it declined a call about the balloon because the U.S. decision to shoot it down “failed to create a proper atmosphere” for dialogue and exchange between the two militaries.” On the other hand, The Pentagon said it remained open to communication and doesn’t seek conflict. Sending a balloon to a sovereign nation’s sky without any alert is undoubtedly offensive, but in Chinese perspective they did not breach their boundaries.Beijing has long called for the U.S. to follow principles of “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation” . If two countries do not sit together and talk about their differences, a small incident can ignite a big war.

Terrorism is the calculated use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population and thereby to bring about a particular political objective. For decades, terrorism has been linked with muslim people, especially after 9/11. But I do not think that terrorists have any religion, only violence is their religion. I still wonder who are the masterminds behind each attack and what words they use to brainwash young guns in the name of “Zihad” that they forget everything and start man slaughtering drum rolls.

In the past, we have seen these terrorist organisations or states had access to highly advanced weapons like AK47, Eagle guns, hand grenades, suicide bombs. Interestingly, these terrorists or the young men and women are highly educated and belong to well to do families. They are so well organised and precise that their attacks are difficult to predict. Terrorism could grow much worse with terrorists’ access to biological and chemical agents as well as nuclear materials becoming more widespread. As I have mentioned earlier that organisations like Lashkar – E – Tayibba, ISIS employ highly educated and smart agents. However, recently number of terrorist attacks have declined. There could be two reasons behind it : 1 Governments have successfully identified and eradicated the king pins behind the attacks or the demands of these terrorists have been fulfilled. Nonetheless, there is no guarantee that they will not rise again.

Recent reports indicating Saudi Arabia’s collaboration with China in developing its ballistic missile program have sparked concerns about the potential implications for regional security. However, I do not see much threat in that apart from breach of NPT. Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of a ballistic missile program can be viewed as a means to enhance its national security. The development of indigenous missile capabilities may provide the kingdom with a deterrent against potential adversaries and strengthen its defence infrastructure. But to keep in mind it can infuriate Iran and they might feel threatened. It also reduces its dependancy on the western world for weapons. This move towards strategic autonomy aligns with Saudi’s aspirations to diversify its defence capabilities and reduce reliance on external partners.

The United States has historically been a key ally of Saudi Arabia, particularly in matters of defense. The development of a ballistic missile program in collaboration with China may strain relations between the two nations, especially if it is perceived as a move that undermines regional stability. But Saudi has not made any noticeable progress in that area. And, right now it is in a process of negotiating a deal with Isreal. Therefore, I think it should not be of a great concern.

The same was in case of India, the development of BMD systems showcased India’s technological prowess and ambition in the defence sector. There is beautiful movie named “Parmanu” depicting India’s achievement. I do not think India had any ill intention and India’s then President A.P.J Abdul Kalam was a man of great wisdom, he is known for humanity he would have never pushed for nuclear war.

North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and provocative behavior have long been a source of concern for the international community. North Korea’s nuclear program, missile tests, human rights abuses, and defiance of international norms have presented a complex and persistent challenge. Especially dealing with Kim Jong Un, who is utterly unpredictable and reckless. A country which does not give “a damn” about anything. North Korea has its way to cut through all the punishment mechanisms other countries impose on it.

Its current alliance with Russia is bit concerning for me; North Korea is like a blindspot for me, when faced repercussions it withdrew from NPT. In addition China is on board with Russia and it shares borders with North Korea and it is in a tug-of-war with the USA. In my opinion, a robust military posture, including defence alliances with South Korea and Japan, serves as a deterrent against North Korean aggression. However, as I have mentioned earlier China plays a pivotal role as North Korea’s main trading partner. Coordinating actions with China is challenging but necessary for effective sanctions.

United Nations, successor of the League of Nations gave hope to people that it will be able to bring peace and stability as the world was still recovering from the debris of and shock of WW2. To me United Nations seems like place to vent for Global leaders; where they only share their troubles with no promised solutions.

United Nations has failed several times across the world because its hands are tied on VETO powers of elite nations and it is dependent on the funds from the elite nations. Ever since the creation of the Jewish state in 1948, the Palestinians have been fighting against what UN investigator Richard Falk described as “Ethnic Cleansing”. Since then, so many Palestinians have been killed and thrown away from their homeland. No matter how many times, UN Security Council had tried to impose charges on Isreal for their immoral acts, the USA has always vetoed it.

Then the civil war in Syria, where UN tried to pass several resolutions but to address the conflicts, but Russia utilised its veto power at least a dozen times to protect its ally Assad. Since 2011 so many people have been killed in Syria, including children, famine has grappled everyone. Over 6.3 million people have been pushed out of the country and they form nearly one-third of the global refugee population. In recent years the Rohingya crisis of 2017; where Myanmar launched major military operation to hunt and kill the Rohingya minority tribe. China stood behind Myanmar by blocking efforts for the Rohingya in the UN Security Council.

I do not know if the world would be a better place without a UN. The United Nations alone cannot fight against the evil of the worlds. Right now the world is in sheer loss of humanity. I read a novel by William Golding “Lord of the Flies”, the moral of the story was that weak are always molested by the mighty and human beings are the most dangerous species of the world because they kill for greed. The UN needs a structural reform, where it can disregard the vetoes and stand for the oppressed.

This week’s article which particularly interested me was “Why artificial intelligence is now a primary concern for Henry Kissinger.” This 100 years old former US statesman warned us about the emergence of AI. He said If leading powers don’t find ways to limit AI’s reach, he said, “it is simply a mad race for some catastrophe.” In the 78th UNGA US current President stressed on finding ways to regulate AI. Already US has been a victim cyber attacks in the past few years.

Human beings have been surrounded by the “fear of unknown” since ages, governments, philosophers, great minds have tried to predict or build a pattern. With the data they have at hand they try to forecast and take actionable steps to prevent any adversaries. Now, AI impedes this capability of human intelligence. As Mr.Kissinger stated “”We are surrounded by many machines whose real thinking we may not know,” he continued. “How do you build restraints into machines? ”

The fear of AI boils down to the fear of loss of control, loss of privacy and loss of human value. While these fears are valid, it is crucial to remember that AI is a tool created by humans for humans. AI does not possess consciousness or emotions; it can only mimic cognitive processes based on its programming and data. Therefore, I believe establishing robust legal and ethical frameworks for data handling and algorithmic transparency is very important. Furthermore, forming an interdisciplinary dialogue between scientists, researchers and policymakers is crucial in navigating the societal impacts of AI and minimising risks.

In my opinion, a global governance system for AI is inevitable, not only policy based but also research based where governments can invest to invent techniques to counter cyber spam, warfare and other threats imposed by AI.

China definitely would like to establish itself as an integral part of geopolitics and economics. Earlier, it has successfully, established itself as a global manufacturer and the largest exporter of the world. In addition, it has maintained one of the highest economic growth rates in the world for more than a quarter on a century.Yet, Yuan still lags a major global currency and the tag of major global power.

However, in recent years China is trying to grasp its place as a global power or simply refusing to play as an underdog. China’s de-dollarization plans are speeding up since the pandemic and few months ago in April Argentina announced it would pay for $1 billion worth of imports from China in Yuan and for $790 million worth of monthly imports thereafter. It also activated a currency swap agreement, making it possible for companies to borrow from China in Yuan. Hence, Yuan is gaining a bit popularity where supply of US dollar is dwindling.

The BRI by China is a reflection of China’s supremacy in the global arena in every way. By building ports, roads in its trading regions like South Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Middle East and Africa; China is definitely not doing an act of service. They do have some vested interest. In my opinion, it is to gain control of that region like a quid pro quo. For example, Pakistan is debt locked to China. I do agree with many other opposing governments that “China is laying a debt trap for borrowing governments”. What I feel is that the OBOR or BRI is a passive policy of China to slowly invade a country. And, the AIIB is another way of luring poor developing countries into agreeing unsustainable loans to pursue infrastructure projects, so when they face financial difficulties, China can seize their property.

“Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall; All the king’s horses and all the king’s men, Couldn’t put Humpty together again.” This fun nursery rhyme is borrowed straight from military history. Humpty Dumpty represents the gigantic siege cannon that Royalists set at the top of St.Mary’s Church tower during Civil War but did not use it, ultimately the opposing party blew up the wall and Humpty Dumpty had his big fall. Similarly Russian Military had their fall against Ukraine by underestimating them.

Pompous Putin made a fatal mistake of looking down on Ukraine. He thought Ukraine was weak while Russian forces were gigantic sharks. But he forgot that powerful armaments help the war but “unity”, “wit”, “knowledge”, “judgment”, and “determination”, these play a crucial role in winning a battle. Sometimes little trickeries and act of deceit takes a team long way in the battlefield. For example, Ukraine carried out many guerrilla attacks and destroyed elite Russian troops. Ukraine may not be mightier than Russia but definitely wittier. As the historian Barbara Tuchman said “A commander who combines resolve with keen strategic intelligence can achieve impressive results.”

Another lesson we can learn from the Ukraine-Russian war is that change is the only constant in life and those who cannot adhere to change will always hover. Ukraine adapted to a modernised command philosophy which encouraged subordinates to deal with the circumstances at hand and commanders will join if things get awry. In my opinion this was a smart move by Ukraine, because soldiers in the war zone facing the battle will better understand the seriousness of an action than someone sitting at the headquarter giving orders. It is a question of common sense. Russian command philosophy on the other hand is more hierarchical, they do not encourage subordinates to make any decisions. Therefore, they had to rely on their commanders’ instructions. And, those bull-headed Russian commanders did change their tactics when needed, their pride was too big. Russia’s arrogance caused their major strategic defeat.

Another thing that Ukraine had and Russia did not was trust amongst officials. Ukraine did a team work and they had a purpose to protect their home. I learnt a very important life lesson from Ukraine that in order to achieve something a person’s intention is very important and our mind is the most powerful weapon.

Sources : https://remote.baruch.cuny.edu/login?url=https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=mth&AN=157559851&site=ehost-live