Summary
There is a strong possibility for nuclear arms buildup to the size of the United States' and Russia's by China. China's tremendous gains in their economy over the last two decades transitioning, opening up their market into a more capitalistic one has made them a stronger power than they were. In William J. Broad's and David E. Sanger's article, "A Second Nuclear Missile Base for China, and Many Questions About Strategy," they speculate that China may be increasing their nuclear arsenal for a possible negotiation card in case of arms control. A new field of launching nuclear missiles is discovered by analysts through satellite images in a desert 1,200 miles west of Beijing. The economic and technological superpower is being creative to get an advantage at the negotiating table and it clearly wants this silo field to be discovered and known in the Xinjiang region. Ever since China did its first successful nuclear test in the 1960s it has maintained a "minimum deterrent" which is around 300 nuclear weapons, which is less than a fifth of the number deployed by the United States and Russia. China has always avoided having expensive and dangerous arms races.
Now that China is tightening up on Taiwan and Hong Kong at home the nuclear strategy is changing under President Xi Jinping. This new construction of silos is the most remarkable expansion of China's nuclear arsenal ever. This is mostly due to China's rise in status and looks at itself as a full-fledged economic, technological, and military superpower and wants the nuclear arsenal to reflect that status. Another reason is India's nuclear buildup, American missile defenses, and Russia's new hypersonic and autonomous weapons, so China wants a more effective deterrent. Also, China is worried that its few ground-based missiles are vulnerable to attack, so they want to spread out their weapons in two locations to keep the United States guessing where their missiles are.
In the past there have been attempts to get China to negotiate about arms control but responded by telling the United States to cut down on their weapons by four-fifths to Chinese levels. It is an increase in security for China and possible leverage when it comes to negotiating but a concern for the United States. Now that this new development has occurred it is a new shift in the relationship between the two trading partners, the United States and China. Washington won't have negotiations with Russia without China about arms control. A new dynamic in nuclear weapons has started and possibly a new nuclear arms race. This time there is a third country involved, China. Is this the new nuclear arms proliferation in the 21st century? Most likely and while tensions are high in multiple regions of the world, including in China's home!
One reply on “Week 4 Post”
Krste,
You chose an interesting and important topic for your blog post. China’s decision to massively increase the number of land-based ICBMs (and nuclear weapons) is a significant development. In one sense, it is probably seeking simply to achieve parity with the US and Russia. But, in so doing, it is also signalling that it is no longer bi-polar world. Indeed, if there is any remaining bi-polarity, it is now between the US and China, not Russia.
As you point out, however, the Chinese build-up complicates the prospect for any new strategic arms agreement, since necessarily it would not have to be a three-way negotiation. There is only one strategic arms treaty still in existence, the so-called “new START” treaty, but it will expire now in less than 3 years. Yet, so far, China has refused U.S. demands that it join a followup treaty that might be negotiated. This could be just a stalling tactic to buy time while it continues to build up its ICBM inventory so it can negotiate from a position of strength. We will see how this plays out probably over the next year or so. –Professor Wallerstein