China’s rise as a hegemonic power has been a thorn in the side of the United States for the past two decades. However, the prospect of China being a significant threat to our national security and world influence has only recently gained some traction over the past few years, especially since the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020. As China’s economy booms and their militarization increases, their view of the United States as a threat instead of a partner grows larger. President Xi Jinping has focused his efforts on lifting China above the United States in terms of being a global superpower by directly going against the desires of the United States and the world without negotiation. This is evident through some key issues regarding the two countries.
The first being China’s aggressive behavior against Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea. The United States views Taiwan as a sovereign nation that has the right to self-determination, whereas China does not recognize Taiwan and desires to annex it. A similar situation has erupted with Hong Kong as citizens protest desperately to stay sovereign. Another issue that forces the two nations to quarrel is the war in Ukraine. China threating to support Russia in their invasion causes great concern for the United States and the rest of the world because this increases the possibility of China invading Taiwan like the Russians invaded Ukraine. Finally, and arguable the most important threat is China’s plan to surpass the United States by replacing the USD with the Chinese Yuan. This is the most pressing matter considering that Saudi Arabia is in active negotiations with China on selling them oil in Yuan, a move that would be devastating to the USD’s dominance on the global market. Not to mention that China’s business dealings in Africa and south America also undermine American influence in the region.
This leads to something I talked about in a previous blog post, the Thucydides Trap. The article written by Graham Allison tells us that the threat of war between the two states grows increasingly possible as time goes on. However, there may be a happy ending to this because the article states that war is most certainly not inevitable. Unfortunately, escaping the Thucydides Trap will not be easy and may require concessions and negotiations that neither president will want to make.
One reply on “Week 4”
Benjamin,
Yes, escaping the Thucydides Trap will require concerted effort on both sides. Theoretically, at least, it should be possible to carve out spheres of influence and “rules of the road” that can avoid a major conflict between the United States and China. But, as you point out, flash points like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and possible Chinese encroachment on territory of countries in Southeast Asia or India may greatly complicate matters. –Professor Wallerstein