Summary
While all eyes are focused on Ukraine, another so-called "frozen conflict" has unleashed a tragedy for the nation of Armenia. This conflict is centered around the region of Nagorno Karabagh, where hundreds of Armenians have been killed, hundreds more have been wounded, and thousands will be forced to evacuate due to the threat of ethnic cleansing and the terror of reliving the history of the 1915 genocide. This region has historically been disputed. During the Soviet era, it was recognized as an autonomous region within Azerbaijan, and it wasn't until the fall of the Soviet Union that the Armenian state, victorious in the First Karabakh War, was able to take control of the region, which had historically been inhabited primarily by Armenians ("Nagorno-Karabakh's 120,000 Armenians Will Leave for Armenia, Leadership Says," 2023). After this first war, the territory was internationally recognized as part of the Armenian state, but in 2020, the territory came under dispute again. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, launched an offensive and seized the territory, culminating in the Second Karabakh War with a peace agreement brokered by Russia.
"You all can talk about peace, and we can go to war, and you will not be able to change anything" (Mirzoyan, 2023). The peace agreements have been violated, and peacekeeping operations led by Russia have been conspicuously absent. Since November 2020, Nagorno-Karabakh has been internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijani territory; however, its inhabitants continued to be predominantly Armenian, a Christian majority in a Muslim state. As part of the supposedly upheld peace agreement following the Second Karabakh War, the Lachin Corridor was established, a small strip of land that would serve as a transit route between mainland Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, and it was to be guarded by Russian peacekeepers. In December 2022, this corridor was blocked by Azerbaijani forces backed by the government (Center for Preventive Action, 2023), preventing the entry of supplies and leading to a shortage in the region. People were starving, and for months, the Russian government, focusing its forces on the conflict in Ukraine, was "reluctant or unable to secure and reopen the road."
Diplomatic efforts were made both from the East and the West; however, the results have not been as desired. The United States, the European Union, and Russia acted as mediators in the early months of this year, advocating for a peaceful solution and the reestablishment of the peace agreement. Contrary to expectations, the conflict in the region escalated again into an armed conflict. On September 19, just as world leaders were starting the 78th United Nations General Assembly, Azerbaijan launched an offensive on the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Days later, after the intervention of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Azerbaijan allowed the entry of humanitarian aid, a ceasefire was agreed upon, but unfortunately, this does not indicate the end of the conflict. The conflict in the region represents a threat for the international system given the importance of gas and oil exports from the region. Will the balance of power in the Caucasus shift? One of the things that intrigues me the most is, why the Russian government was reluctant to intervene? Why was the government struggling with keeping up with the peacekeeping commitments? It might be related to the fact that the United States has verbally expressed its support to Armenia, however, they have only intervened promoting peace dialogues. Armenia, nevertheless, has been leaning to the west, which might be a reason why Russia was not backing them.