Among the readings for this week, I found Yang’s insights on China’s perception of the North Korea problem particularly compelling (and it was perfectly supplemented by Clemen’s account of North Korea’s back and forth between Beijing and Moscow in its pursuit of nuclear weapons). It is extremely important, as I said before, from a policy maker point of view, to try to understand how other actors in the international system think, what their internal process for devising policies is, and what are the opposing views that exist within the country regarding any particular issue. It would be interesting to know how the recent Russia-North Korea rapprochement was received in Beijing, and how it might have affected China’s perception of North Korea (and Russia, to some extent).
Unfortunately, what we do not have is a clearer picture of what North Korea itself is thinking or planning on doing (or, it might be said, on what Kim Jong-un is thinking on planning). North Korea was already one of the (if not the most) closed countries in the world, and the one with a less transparent decision-making processes. The pandemic has contributed to further isolate the nation, even from China,
As many authors that we read during this course constantly point out, the lack of information on an international actor (and consequently lack ability to predict that actor’s future behavior) renders any security issue related to that actor more volatile and less tractable. In that regard, North Korea might be the most dangerous country in the world.
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One reply on “Week 10 – Murilo”
Murilo,
I very much agree with the sentiment you expressed at the end of your blog post. I think we can stipulate that North Korea is the most isolated and closed society in the world–though Myanmar (since the coup) may run a close second). This self-imposed isolation began under Kim Jong-un’s grandfather,and since the end of the Korean War their paranoia about opening to the outside world has only increased. Part of this is, of course, related to the fact that they are the textbook totalitarian state, and if they allow outsiders and outside information into the country, it could well threaten the control of the Kim family dynasty. So they rely heavily on propaganda and misinformation. As for how China may be reacting to the rapprochement between the DPRK and Russia, one can only speculate. But for Russia, it may simply be a relationship of convenience–and, of course, a source of badly-needed munitions. –Professor Wallerstein