For the past several decades, the Middle East has been a region filled with tension and conflict, resulting in standoffs between Israel and Arab nations as well as a cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Since the start of the 21st centaury, this tension has evolved into an arms race between the dominant nations in the region. It is axiomatic that if a country obtains nuclear weapons or the means to produce them, their regime’s sovereignty and security is guaranteed. This is the reason Israel has acquired WMDs and why authoritarian nations in the region strive to obtain them.
Currently, Iran and Saudi Arabia (countries that are sworn enemies) are in the middle of a cold war, resulting in their involvement in the proxy conflict in Yemen and the relatively more recent nuclear arms race. From the Saudi point of view, their enemy Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons which is a direct threat to the Saudis. To make matters worse, the United States was humoring their ambitions by creating a nuclear deal with them that is now void, causing the Iranians to continue their exploits unchecked. At the same time, the Saudis ally, the United States, has been pressuring them not to pursue the same ambitions, leaving the Saudis vulnerable.
With this information in mind, I do not blame the Saudi government for working with the Chinese to develop their nuclear weapons at the discontent of the United States gov’t. Why should the Saudis allow their enemy develop a weapon that could destroy them without developing a similar weapon in order to ensure safety? Personally, I think the United States should take steps to coerce both the Iranians and the Saudis into halting their nuclear weapons program because I believe both nations have an extremely unstable relationship with their neighbors. Additionally, if a rouge state like Iran, who frequently uses terrorism to achieve their military goals and is a threat to global security, obtains a WMD, they would almost certainly use it. At the very least, they would give it to a terrorist group to use as a way to protect themselves from accountability, just like they have done for decades.
One reply on “Week 11”
Benjamin,
You paint a pretty dire picture of the security situation in the Middle East! For the moment at least, there is something of a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran–they have reestablished diplomatic relations and exchanged ambassadors. Of course, that won’t stop the Iranians from secretly pursuing a nuclear weapon. And the Saudis are watching closely, and they will likely follow suit if the Iranians detonate a test weapon. At the same time, however, there have been secret negotiations between the Saudis, Israeli, and the U.S. that could lead to major political realignment in the Middle East. But, sadly, the Hamas attack on Israel has frozen the negotiations. –Professor Wallerstein