Summary
It’s the 21st-century -- technology and innovation are fast-moving and groundbreaking, and the art of war and politics have become intertwined more than ever. It’s tempting to think we face completely new challenges without a roadmap. But with the stakes so high and multi-polar, perhaps we can benefit from taking a step back in time, to take two steps forward. Turning on the headlights to see the road ahead, yet taking a close look in the rear-view mirror of history for lessons learned on power and geopolitics.
As our guide, I nominate to conjure up Niccolò di Bernardo dei Machiavelli – Renaissance-era Italian diplomat, author, and philosopher -- best known for “The Prince”, written circa 1513 and published posthumously in 1532. Whether it’s 1513 or 2023, navigating the treacherous waters of international affairs by understanding and implementing the nature of power remains timeless and eminently pragmatic.
Now that we have our adviser ready, whom shall he advise? Perhaps President Joseph Biden, who faces several hot potatoes of war at once. Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and potentially China over Taiwan. Yes, that’s like getting SUV driving lessons from a Roman charioteer. Useful, but Biden will need to watch out for the fast-changing potholes of modernity.
Machiavelli, who made the study of backstabbing an employment program for future generations of political science professors, appears and proposes a relaxed meeting over coffee discussing a three-prong strategy. The old political fox, with a smirk that could make a saint suspicious, counsels Biden on war – which is often for territory, resources, religious ideas or reaching for glory and prestige. Or all of the above. Taking thoughts from “The Art of War” (1521), “Discourses on Livy” (1531) and “The Prince” (1532), he would explain how war is an extension of political values and goals and could be used for either benevolent or negative resolutions of inevitable threats and conflicts among many fronts.
Primary Front: The Economic Battlefield
“Signore President,” Machiavelli might say, “war is but an extension of politics. I am a man from the Renaissance, and a former servant of the Republic of Florence, so you may think me ill prepared to advise on what you call “digital-age economics”. But in your modern times, as long as gold flows to where it is appreciated and beckoned for profit and the ways of the double-entry ledger lead the world, your economic power, as it was in mine, appears to be your strongest lever. Wield your economic might like a velvet hammer – powerful and visible, but subtle and persistent. Engage with new allies, but also remember your current ones, honor and do not take them for granted. Keep all trade rules honest and accounted for by all who attempt to parlay for profit. Be mindful that your sanctions against your adversaries or their friends are like a fine Tuscan wine; they need time to mature.”
Second Front: The Cyber Coliseum
“What you call cyberspace and the cloud and Internet”, Machiavelli would suggest, “is already the new frontier of warfare. It is like espionage, but with more scribes with fancier tools and fewer cloaks.” “Take a dual approach – fortify your digital infrastructure like it were a castle under siege while engaging in cyber diplomacy.” “Signore, amico mio,” he would say, “a good hacker on your side is worth ten on theirs. And remember, in cyberspace, the pen (or should I say the keyboard) is indeed mightier than the finest sword of my time.”
Third Front: The Art of Diplomacy
“Let us also talk of the old-school of diplomacy,” Machiavelli would advise. “It is like chess, but where every piece thinks it is a King or Queen.” He would encourage Biden to engage directly with China, offering carrots while quietly sharpening the sticks. “International relations”, he would assert, “are about knowing when to shake hands and when to show the fist wrapped in a velvet glove of one hand, while holding the velvet hammer in the other at rest.”
The Ends Justifying the Means
As their coffee comes to an end, Machiavelli ghost, sipping the last of his ethereal coffee, offers a parting piece of advice. “Signore, the key to preventing or managing a three-front war is to make your enemies think they want peace more than you do. After all, the best victories are those where the olive branch disguises the sword.”
He fades away, leaving behind a faint scent of Renaissance wisdom and a reminder that sometimes, the best political strategies are timeless.
One reply on “Nicco and Guiseppe Have Coffee: How to Juggle Three Hot Potatoes at Once”
Mark,
I have little to add to your masterful final blog post! I had a smile on my face when I finished reading it. It would indeed be fascinating if Machiavelli could comment on our current global security challenges. The problem is, however, that Machiavelli’s view of the world was zero sum–winners and losers–and he thought a lot about how to make his “prince” the winner. But in today’s inter-connected world, we have to move away from the zero sum approach–or we are all doomed! –Professor Wallerstein