When we look back to history, hot wars take place when the shifting balance of power happens. Under Trump’s administration, it seems that the US –“the world police” want to withdraw from its “deep” intervention in a series of international affairs. However, the rising power, China or other countries may not be ready for taking that responsibility. Also, Trump shows heavy dissatisfaction about current China-US trade relationship.
Although sino-american relation is highly inter-dependent, the danger of war probably increase under today’s situation. “The danger is that amid the structural stress caused by China’s rise, and exaggerated by Xi’s and Trump’s clashing visions, inevitable crises that could otherwise be contained will result in outcomes neither side wants.”
If one side misjudge its competitors’ strategy, the world war may take place. The catalyst might be Taiwan or North Korea.