I think it’s interesting how even markets we would think are separate depend a lot on each other. This article explains how activity in the EU directly affects trade in Asia. Unsurprisingly, France leaving the EU would be bad for Asian markets. A stable EU is good for Asia. Plus, France doesn’t have very strong times with Asia, not in the way that Germany does (with China) and the UK does (with India). So I understand this to mean that without access to the EU, there would be no trade with France, right away at least.
“If you look at trade, it’s more about how a shock in France can have a shock in the EU, then this can have a shock on Asia Pacific – that is the derivative impact on trade,” Mahamoud Islam, an economist for Euler Hermes in Hong Kong.”