Belarus in tug of war between Russia and the West

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-putin-hasnt-won-the-game-in-belarus/

Belarus is top of mind at the moment as we consider the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West. President Lukashenko of Belarus – known as “Europe’s last dictator” – won reelection by a landslide in August, spurring mass protests by the Belarusian opposition amid accusations of election fraud and foreign meddling. Demonstrations gave way to violence and to mass arrests of protestors, garnering unprecedented international attention for Minsk. Amid the unrest, Lukashenko claimed protests were a Western-backed plot to end his rule and expand NATO influence eastward.

Belarus, of course, has deep and longstanding ties with Russia – historical, cultural, political, and economic. Russia has long wanted to absorb Belarus into a union state and is deeply enmeshed with the Belarussian security state. Lukashenko has flirted with the West at times when it’s suited him but has always tacked back toward Russia in an effort to retain power. Last month Belarus secured a 1.5 billion loan from Russia, following a meeting between Lukashenko and Putin.

This Politico article discusses the EU’s role and how it might coax Belarus toward the West.  The article acknowledges that the EU has limited cards to play given that it doesn’t enjoy the strong ties with Belarus that Russia can claim. However, the article suggests that the EU may exert some influence on the people of Belarus by providing humanitarian support to political refugees and to victims of state-backed violence.  Essentially it recommends an EU appeal to Belarusian hearts and minds.

Frankly, I am not convinced that Belarus can be moved in the direction of the West in the short term – particularly given the Russian Federation’s economic leverage – but I will be watching intently.