In his article “Hard Truths in Syria: America Can’t Do More with Less and It Shouldn’t Try”, Brett McGurk, who served as the Special Presidential Envoy to the Coalition to Defeat Isis laments the decision of the Trump administration to wind down the presence of US servicemen in Syria. McGurk also describes the decisions that he believes the United States should take in order to prevent further damaging American interests in the region and to make sure that the main goals of the Coalition remain achieved which McGurk states are to “prevent Isis from coming back” and “from stopping Iran from establishing a fortified military presence that might threaten Israel.”
When discussing the potential steps that he would recommend the United States take in regards to the region, he does establishing some deal with the Assad regime in Damascus as a way of ensuring that the interests of the United States in the region are protected. I would imagine that this is because the Assad regime is responsible for plunging Syria in the country in the first place with their brutal repression of protests and their previous use of chemical weapons on innocent civilians. The ideal solution (in my opinion) would be the removal of the Assad regime and the establishment of a secular liberal democracy in Syria that is allied with the United States and maintains good relations with Israel. However, this is not possible without committing to a long-term occupation and more likely than not a possible conflict with Russia considering that they are the ones who are protecting Assad in the first place. While an ideal and perfect solution is now out of reach of American policymakers and diplomats, we could still achieve a settlement that is good enough and in my opinion, the best way of doing this would be to strike a deal with Damascus.
A potential deal with Damascus could entail partial repeal of the sanctions being placed on the regime in return for certain concessions. As McGurk explains in his article, as a result of the civil war, Syria has faced a total economic collapse that has not been seen since the Second World War. I believe that the possibility of repealing certain sanctions on the Damascus regime would incentivize them to move away from Iran and to try and reach a settlement with the western powers in terms of deescalating the situation with Israel and giving certain protections to members of the SDF.
Harry,
I strongly agree with your view that the Trump administration made a terrible tactical blunder in virtually pulling out of Syria (only about 400 troops left) and abandoning our steadfast allies, the Kurds, as we did. Unfortunately, while your instincts are right about the desirability of cutting a deal with Assad, it’s hard to see what leverage we have left at this point. We have pretty much ceded the territory to the Russians and the Turks. But I would be keen to know what specific ideas you might have in terms of the possible elements of a deal!
–Professor Wallerstein