As the United Nations arms embargo on Iran expired today pursuant to the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the United States will impose sanctions on “any individual or entity that materially contributes to the supply, sale, or transfer of conventional arms to or from Iran, as well as those who provide technical training, financial support and services, and other assistance related to these arms.”
Pompeo and the State Department continue to insist that “virtually all previously terminated UN sanctions” re-entered effect on September 20th after triggering the snapback provision of the JCPOA. The rest of the world disagrees. Our European allies argue that since the US is not a participant, it has no right or authority to impose snapback sanctions on an agreement it is no longer a party to. It is unclear how the United States will unilaterally enforce multilateral sanctions the rest of the world is determined to ignore, but Pompeo has stated he expects all UN member states to comply with the sanctions.
Though Pompeo’s official statement declares the embargo is still in effect, he lacks the power to turn his wishes into reality. The embargo has expired and Iran is free to purchase conventional weapons. It will be interesting to see who dares to risk Pompeo’s wrath and US sanctions. A possible outcome of this decree would be Iran moving closer to Russia and China as Western companies may not want to risk doing business with Iran and losing business with the United States. The US Presidential election is less than three weeks away, however, and in the short term, it is more likely that potential suppliers will wait to see the outcome before making a decision. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, told Al Jazeera he expects China to wait and see: “Beijing would want to reboot the US-China relationship with a new US administration.”
Russia also has reason to wait and see. Putin called Friday for a one-year extension of START, which is set to expire in February. The Trump administration immediately rejected Putin’s proposal. A long-term extension or new agreement would certainly be negotiated differently in a Biden administration, as Biden was one of the original negotiators.
Though the embargo has been lifted, continuing uncertainty and potential changes in US leadership are unlikely to create a rush to sell to Iran. Most nations are hesitant to upset the balance of power in the region and want to reserve the option to reset relationships under a future Biden administration.
Stephanie,
Policy analysts and historians will someday use this as a prime example of senseless and ineffective foreign policy making. It would be difficult to imagine how the US could have played this much worse. We pulled out of the JCPOA for no apparent reason–other than because the president was totally ignorant about the risks and benefits and refused to be educated by the intelligence community or anyone else. Then we tried to strong-arm our allies into accepting the Snap Back provision–and when that failed, into retaining the arms embargo. This, too, was a failure.
So all that Pompeo is left with now are Secondary Sanctions, which the US can impose on foreign companies that do business in Iran. We have used this as a cudgel not only in Iran but in other countries as well. I agree with you assessment that all parties, the European countries, Russia, China and even Iran, are now simply waiting to see if Trump loses. If he does, there likely will be a reset. –Professor Wallerstein