Foreign Policy With Iran Under A Potential President Biden Administration.

The next U.S. presidential administration will undoubtedly face continued challenges from our relations with Iran. In a second term, the Trump administration will likely continue a policy of maximum pressure. But how would a potential Biden administration approach Iranian relations?

One potential foreign policy outcome from a future Biden administration is rejoining the JCPOA.  We could see a  President Biden attempt to restore Iranian relations to resemble something from the pre-Trump era.

However, recent regional events will prove difficult to accomplish this outcome—for example, the assassination of General Soleimani. The assassination of General Soleimani is highlighted as a foreign policy accomplishment by the Trump administration. I tend to agree. Even a surface-level glance into Soleimani’s track record reviles a dangerous actor with numerous plans and attempts to strike American personnel with deadly force. The world and American personnel overseas are safer with Soleimani out of the equation.

The removal of Soleimani by the U.S. might negatively affect Iranian relations over the long-term. While Soleimani’s death brings short-term strategic gains for the U.S., it may also stand as yet another brick in the wall of deep-seated resentment and perceived grievances from the Ayatollah.

Additionally, a potential President Biden foreign policy agenda with Iran would likely face challenges from newly developed peace processes in the middle east. For example, recognition of Isreal by the UAE, Kosovo, and others likely in the future will further alienate Iran.

Statecraft can often be a bloody business; however, diplomacy’s importance to accomplish long-term strategic goals cannot be overemphasized. If Biden becomes president, his administration will have to balance the Iranian relationship carefully if they are to rejoin a negotiation table.