The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the Iran nuclear deal is uncertain, the deal signed back in 2015 between the Iranians and the P5+1 group; China, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. The purpose of the deal is impose limitations on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program, after years of negotiations during Obama’s administration, finally JCPOA gave Iran relief from international economic sanctions as long as Iranians’ were willing to dismantle their nuclear program and allowing facilities’ inspections, but currently the deal has weakened after Trump officially withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in May 2018, arguing the deal was not effective to curtail Iran’s ballistic missile program or its intervention in the affairs of other countries in the Middle East. Since Trump’s government reinstated US sanctions on Iran and looked forward punishing any other country who do trade with them, Iran has been increasing their uranium at Fordow nuclear plant, which is one of the limitations under the JCPOA.
Moreover, other incidents have increased tensions between The US and Iran such as General Qasem Soleimani was murdered in an airstrike in Baghdad, and an explosion in Natan, that the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization said was an attempt to obstruct their Iran’s enrichment site, in response Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated revenge awaits the criminals.
The upcoming presidential elections are crucial for JCPOA, if Trump gets reelected, he has promised to arrange a new deal which it may be simple not possible, on the other hand if Joe Biden wins, his administration will aim to rejoin the JCPOA seeking additional concessions from Tehran. Nonetheless Iran is aware that the deal has all around benefits for states including global and regional security, but if multilateral sanctions are reimposed this could be push out Iran from the JCPOA encouraging to them work hard to enrich their nuclear program.