Author: KEVINN GALLEGO LEON

According to the latest agreement of the European Council, third countries will be allowed to join the European Military Project. But their participation will depend if they can add substantial value to respective projects being carried out and when such participation will not lead to dependencies on third states. Besides, any third country participant need also to be agreed and respect the values of the European Union has, and the principles of good neighbor relations with the Member States. Therefore, the approach toward participation undoubtedly satisfies only the closest partners of choice like the United States, Norway, and the United Kingdom.

Third countries can contribute relevant capacities for military operations, technological know-how as well as research and development. Their participation also facilitates closer EU working relationships with neighbors and non-EU NATO allies, helping safeguard NATO unity. For instance; Norway — an EU-oriented country with a third of its exports going to the bloc. As the only member of the European Free Trade Association that is both part of the European Economic Area and host to notable defense industry, Norway would be a substantial contributor to PESCO projects, from research programs to the joint development and acquisition of defense capabilities initiatives.

After a deal signed between the United States and the Taliban in February in Doha, Qatar, the tensions in Afghanistan have increased creating competition among anti-government militants. Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) dispute with the Taliban for political success and influence bringing more violence to the Country. The peace deal signed with the United States dealing to halt bombing urban center and break up the relationship with other terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda Nevertheless, attacks from the Taliban have increased by around 50% in the last months, the Taliban has used military operations increasing concerns about the group is trying to establish a discriminatory and totalitarian regime in the country.

Many people in Afghanistan blame the Taliban for hosting and collaborating with terrorism groups, the war by the Taliban has undermined Afghanistan’s political stability, security, and economic development, weaken the government’s functionality and territorial control, allowing others militant groups such as  ISK gain more control over the country.  These groups are trying to build leverage through violence and claiming the honor of resisting the US and its partners. They are fighting to create frustration and chaos to expand their operational reach and lethality, thereby creating transnational inspiration for the movement.

The conflict in Afghanistan is going up, it is a combination of proxy wars and terrorism, the proxy dimension of the war since the 1980s produced countless intended and unintended consequences such as state fragility, terrorism, sectarianism, war crimes, social fragmentation, and radicalization.  On the other hand, mistakes made on all sides, especially by the Trump administration in Washington, created both inspiration and hope for many extremist groups in the region.

The Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who are fighting to get control over this region. In the last two decades, Armenians have had control only because it served Russia’s interest, the war has modified the balance of interests in the region, bringing unfavorable conditions for Moscow, because it has created openings for regional interventions by Turkey, the United States, and others. Therefore, Russia encourages Azerbaijan military offensive, a powerful security rationale that implies a strong Russian interest in deterring a war that might change the regional status quo. Preserving a favorable status quo, by strategic logic is the central security interest of a regional hegemon like Russia.

Currently, Russia is aiming to create insecurity among the Armenian population that they cannot survive as a state without them. Moreover, in order to increase the feeling of the threat Russia allowed Azerbaijan to get back all its territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, making it harder defending in the future, Azerbaijan’s victory also underlines the military vulnerability of Armenia itself. Russia will look to persuade Armenia’s population and leadership to agree to closer integration with Russia.

 

 

India has finally decided to bet for American led security in Asia, India’s decision was influenced due to lack of Russia’s ability to contain China, therefore, It has signed important agreements such as BECA where India has obtained valuable geospatial data, improving situational awareness for military operations and increasing the accuracy of its missile systems. COMCASA enabled Indian and US military platforms to network with each other. LEMOA allowed Indian and US militaries access to each other’s refueling facilities and military material. GSOMIA started the sharing of sensitive military intelligence data, through these four agreements will allow to implement better logistics, geospatial data sharing in place.

In October, Modi’s government has shed India’s traditional Nehruvian diffidence and embraced the US wholeheartedly. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper joined Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar for the third annual US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in New Delhi, also relations with Washington and New Delhi have been increasingly in the last decade, now the dialogue has moved toward operationalizing the Quad, allowing major changes in political and military alliances in the region. Regarding the latest events marks a watershed in US-India relation even as Trump leaves and Biden takes over the trajectory of its relation is likely to remain the same.

As North Korea increases its nuclear weapons supply, Northeast Asia becomes more unstable due to the fact that it changes nuclear balance, meanwhile the US and its allies have struggled to set arms control and encourage disarmament regions for decades, North Korea strives to get total control over nuclear weapons in the region.

Unfortunately, during Trump’s administration, the indifference to keep military pacts such as Japan and South Korea, diminished non-proliferation measures to contain nuclear weapons. Moreover, Trump has suggested that the US should remove the nuclear umbrella from these countries allowing Japan and South Korea develop their own nuclear programs. Although Trump and Kim Jong-un leader of North Korea met several times nothing new came up from these meetings, the US has not changed the status quo in the region and the nuclear umbrella remains in place, and North Korea is still focused on working harder on its own nuclear deterrent.

On the other hand, Japan and South Korea have bristled at Trump’s extreme burden-sharing demands and relations between the United States and China have significantly worsened. Currently the US needs to move forward on a number of stalled arms control and disarmament initiatives, and maybe now under Biden’s government is a new opportunity to advance and take urgent measures to halt proliferation of nuclear weapons.

The United States must build alliances throughout Asia to ensure our stability for the next century. The Country needs to strength their relationships with India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and especially South Korea. South Korea is the world’s 12th-largest economic power and one of America’s strongest allies for the last 60 years. Moreover, South Korea has the largest and important West’s global supply chain for technology, transportation and telecommunications, also they have been an essential key of democracy housing of the US military bases in Asia.

Meanwhile political affairs between the US and South Korea gain importance in nowadays, Trump’s government has managed this affair in hard ways in 2019 Trump required  from South Korea to paid $4.7 billion per year to station US military forces in the Korean Peninsula, despite of allies must pay for fair share in defense is unfair to demanded such high rates; it has to be based on rationale and data. If the South Koreans cannot trust on reasonable and predictable US foreign policy maybe they will cut off relationship with Washington and to seek other alliances.

The United States needs to be aware South Korea is an essential partner for dealing with North Korea and China, the US has to keep going with clear and fair foreign policy that  allies can understand and count on, besides, US needs to promote the policies that Democratic and Republican secretaries of state have built over decades.

The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the Iran nuclear deal is uncertain, the deal signed back in 2015 between the Iranians and the P5+1 group; China, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. The purpose of the deal is impose limitations on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program, after years of  negotiations during Obama’s administration, finally JCPOA gave Iran relief from international economic sanctions as long as Iranians’ were willing to dismantle their nuclear program and allowing facilities’ inspections, but currently  the deal  has weakened after Trump officially withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in May 2018, arguing the deal was not effective to curtail Iran’s ballistic missile program or its intervention in the affairs of other countries in the Middle East.  Since Trump’s government reinstated US sanctions on Iran and looked forward punishing any other country who do trade with them, Iran has been increasing their uranium at Fordow nuclear plant, which is one of the limitations under the JCPOA.

Moreover, other incidents have increased tensions between The US and Iran such as General Qasem Soleimani was murdered in an airstrike in Baghdad, and an explosion in Natan, that the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization said was an attempt to obstruct their Iran’s enrichment site, in response Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated revenge awaits the criminals.

The upcoming presidential elections are crucial for JCPOA, if Trump gets reelected, he has promised to arrange a new deal which it may be simple not possible, on the other hand if Joe Biden wins, his administration will aim to rejoin the JCPOA seeking additional concessions from Tehran.  Nonetheless Iran is aware that the deal has all around benefits for states including global and regional security, but if multilateral sanctions are reimposed this could be push out Iran from the JCPOA encouraging to them work hard to enrich their nuclear program.

Since 2014 when Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, won elections in Egypt, human rights have been undermined beneath his government, Egypt has fallen into the most oppressive Sisi’ regime yet, who has tossed journalists into the jail, has executed civilians through military courts. Moreover, in economic issues Sisi has increased prices of the food and gas to insane and unsustainable rates, therefore Egypt’s’ people has fall into severe poverty. Several protests came about the country that Sisi’ government has curbed with violence against the protesters shooting rubber bullets and tear gas in an attempt to quell the protesters, even arresting bunch of them including children. Furthermore, Government officials went into protesters’ private information such as phones and social media searching for anything it could use as evidence against them, rights groups have disowned Government’s behavior called these actions as unconstitutional.

Egypt current relationship with the United States is based first at all  in economic interest; Egypt’s geographical positioning gives a unique influence in the region, inviting more than $40 billion in military and $30 billion in economic assistance from the US since 1980, Egypt’s transportation routes are beneficial for the US, with two-way trade between the two countries totaling $7.5 billion in 2018. On the other hand, these countries have common interests in limiting Iran’s influence in the Middle East as well as curtailing the spread of radical movements in volatile states like Iraq and Syria. Besides, in the same way The U.S. support to Egypt is addressing to foreign policy objectives of counteracting terrorism.

Relationship between The U.S. and Egypt has been bringing huge benefits for both countries, the Egyptian military is heavily dependent on weapons and contractors from the United States. Washington could use this to leverage pressure against Cairo on its human rights record. “If the US continues to permit a cruel dictator to tyrannize his citizens under an oppressive regime, it is sending a strong message to other nations both in the region and the world that attempts to undermine and subvert democratic principles may be ignored for economic and political control.” Definitively Sisi’s dictator ship is not a good example to leading any country and The U.S. shouldn’t support this kind of governments based in economic and political affairs.

https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/hannah-zhou-us-egypt-relations-human-rights-abdel-fattah-el-sisi-donald-trump-news. By Hannah Zhou • Oct 07, 2020

“The PLA is preparing for modern, networked warfare with more artificial intelligence, warships, and even a space station.” China is running a race to enhance their nuclear stockpile, implementing artificial intelligence into everything that they are creating. Moreover, China is looking its own version of a nuclear triad, with air-launched ballistic missiles, in addition to ICBMs. Pentagon officials assess China will have 200 intercontinental missiles in the next five years, also the report shows that China’s space activities are increase quickly in order to optimize the process such as space exploration, profit-generating launches and scientific efforts. Beijing aims to became in a global leader in artificial intelligence in a short term.

These technological advances mixed with completely lack of transparency from China have brought to the United States serious concerns, regarding these facts the U.S. has been trying to involve China into a new START treaty which governs the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons and launch platforms that the United States and Russia can keep in their inventories, nonetheless, China doesn’t want to embroil in a discussion on nuclear arms control.

Despite of China is building strong technologies and weapons some experts from American Enterprise Institute ensure PLA doesn’t have appropriate training and fighting experience than American Army have this fact give advantage over China. Nevertheless, PLA is striving to change that, they are restructuring and enhancing the PLA’S overall combat with new operational concepts aims to set up their military footprint overseas. Pentagon said artificial intelligence is collaborated to increment the speed of warfare and in effect China is working under that statement, therefore, China’s behavior could bring severe aftermaths over the world rushing into a cyber warfare.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/09/168166/byPatrickTucker

The European union was created in order to join European countries who suffered the world war II consequences, its policies aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services and capital within the internal market; enact legislation in justice and home affairs; and maintain common policies on trade, agriculture, fisheries and regional development, moreover to avoid clashes between them like before, nowadays EU policies and aims could be affected from some troubles that have created discord among the members, the latest events point out European union through weakness; the Greek frustration with EU peaked at an unsurpassed at the foreign affairs Council on August 14, when Italy, Spain, Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria and Malta vetoed the appeal by Athens to sanctions against Belarus. In the same way there are tension between France and Turkish because Macron president of France, has seen the growing Turkish influence in Libya as a threat to its economic in West Africa and the Sahel.

On September 10, Emmanuel Macron met with MED7 countries hoping to put pressure on Turkish nevertheless leaders of Italy, Spain and Malta move backward France’s intentions arguing the importance to set up dialogues with Ankara. Indeed, after days Spain’s President was willing to enhance relationship with Turkish also Italy discussed on the phone about topics related to Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean.” Two days after the Corsica summit, the Maltese Minister of EU Foreign Affairs met with Cavusoglu in Turkey’s Mediterranean resort town of Antalya.

It seems Europe is fading while Turkey seems to be on the rise, likely Europe will face in a short term the renaissance of the big empire where at least Russia, China and Turkey will be playing important roles on global affairs in Europe. Turkey’s ascendancy in the region should be expected to accelerate the fracturing of Europe, where each state is increasingly preoccupied with its own problems, forming competing alliances against one another and the idea of the united Europe based in prosperity, democracy and solidarity will become in a shadow.