Most military experts agree that the result of the Syrian Civil War is a foregone conclusion; the Assad Regime will remain in power. Nonetheless, Syria fits the definition of a Failed State. Foreign actors are likely to be able to operate in Syrian territory with impunity for the foreseeable future. One such actor is Hezbollah. The Lebanese Shiite, Iranian-backed paramilitary organization played a crucial role in propping up the Assad government just as it seemed to be in its death-rows in 2012 and has gained significant fighting experience in its military involvement.
Hezbollah is one of Israel’s most formidable and immediate military foes. Many analysts, including Foreign Affairs’ Mara Karlin, believe that a significant clash between Israel in Hezbollah is inevitable and on the immediate horizon. The fallout from the Syrian Civil War may dictate what this future conflict might look like. In addition to gaining battle experience, Hezbollah is more heavily armed than the last time they came to blows with the IDF in 2006. Specifically, their rocket arsenal has been augmented through their military operations in Syria. Hezbollah’s presence in Syria also presents the scenario in which the Israelis have to fight Hezbollah not only in Southern Lebanon but also in the Golan Heights region.
A scenario in which a foe gains a foothold in a neighboring country destabilized by civil war is not new to the IDF. Following their ejection from Jordan in 1970, the Palestine Liberation Organization relocated to Lebanon and used Southern Lebanon as a base to attack Israeli targets. The IDF invaded Southern Lebanon in 1978 to push the PLO out of range. Cross-border incidents and terrorist attacks continued and a full-scale invasion of Lebanon began in June 1982. This was larger than the 1978 operation with IDF forces laying siege to Beirut itself.
The argument can be made that Hezbollah has proven to be a more formidable enemy than the PLO. For starters, they are a single paramilitary organization as opposed to a confederation of political factions. They are better armed and backed by a more powerful benefactor: Iran. Hezbollah is also heavily entrenched in the local population of Southern Lebanon and has been cultivating its “human shield” approach since their last conflict with Israel. The confluence of these issues and circumstances have the propensity to precipitate a conflict even more dealy than the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.