I read an article today in the New York Times “As the U.S. votes, a frazzled world holds its breath.” While U.S. Presidential elections are always a matter of global interest, this particular one seems not only far more stressful at home, but also abroad. There were many in the U.S. and likely many among our friends and allies that did not expect the dramatic departure from standard U.S. foreign policy that the Trump administration has pursued. Republican leaders at the time told worried Americans and allies that they should relax, there would be “adults in the room” to curb his worst tendencies. This, of course, hasn’t played out the way they imagined.
Our allies in NATO now rightly worry a second term for Trump means the end of the alliance, and possibly of U.S. participation in multilateral organizations in general. Trump’s enamorment with dictators and rapport with authoritarians would likely lead to greater instability as the U.S. no longer serves as a check on dictators and would-be dictators and imperialists.
A few weeks ago, I read that Russia and China were waiting to engage with Iran to see what the outcome of the election might be. Since then, Putin made a statement saying he saw no evidence of wrongdoing by Hunter Biden, which many saw as undermining President Trump’s new favorite conspiracy. When invited to explicitly support Trump after he suggested on a public conference call that Biden could not have “made this deal” with Sudan, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demurred, saying “Well, Mr. President, one thing I can tell you is we appreciate the help for peace from anyone in America. And we appreciate what you’ve done enormously.” The president appeared visibly deflated by Netanyahu’s statement.
One line in today’s New York Times article that I found interesting suggested that at least some in the Israeli government fear a second term for Trump could lead to a deal with Iran they would not like as Trump would no longer need the electoral support of evangelicals. I can see how this might be a consideration, but I wouldn’t anticipate Trump’s stance to change too greatly. And to be fair, he has (not really jokingly) suggested he should be eligible for a third term because Democrats were “so unfair” to him in his first. He’d want to keep evangelicals in his corner for that fight.
Stephanie,
This response will be on the brief side, since I am still grading papers (in my other course). You are certainly correct that the whole world seems to be watching and waiting for the outcome of our election. The president (and his Secretary of State) have done so much to disrupt and damage the “liberal world order” in their four years in power–from alliances, to treaty withdrawals, to organizational withdrawals, etc. that everything is now in disarray. If there is a silver lining to all of this (and I’m not sure that there is), it’s that the world has realized the pivotal role that the United States has been playing in international security for so many years. Even our adversaries may be tacitly acknowledging this.
–Professor Wallerstein