The Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who are fighting to get control over this region. In the last two decades, Armenians have had control only because it served Russia’s interest, the war has modified the balance of interests in the region, bringing unfavorable conditions for Moscow, because it has created openings for regional interventions by Turkey, the United States, and others. Therefore, Russia encourages Azerbaijan military offensive, a powerful security rationale that implies a strong Russian interest in deterring a war that might change the regional status quo. Preserving a favorable status quo, by strategic logic is the central security interest of a regional hegemon like Russia.
Currently, Russia is aiming to create insecurity among the Armenian population that they cannot survive as a state without them. Moreover, in order to increase the feeling of the threat Russia allowed Azerbaijan to get back all its territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, making it harder defending in the future, Azerbaijan’s victory also underlines the military vulnerability of Armenia itself. Russia will look to persuade Armenia’s population and leadership to agree to closer integration with Russia.
Kevinn,
I think your assessment of Russian motives, tactics and strategy are correct. There are a number of places on Russia’s periphery, which used to be part of the Soviet Union, where the Russian strategy is basically to maintain a “frozen conflict,” and Nagorno-Karabakh is most definitely one of these. Since Czarist times, Russian security thinking has focused on the “near abroad,” where are areas near Russia’s borders that must either be allied or controlled by Moscow. But the situation today is a good deal more complicated than in the time of the Czars, given that as you suggest, there are other parties (e.g., Turkey) prepared to intervene. –Professor Wallerstein