These terms seem to appear as God’s inevitable punishment and hang over us like a Damocles sword. At least since the 1979 World Climate Conference in Geneva. At that time, experts discussed climate change with the result that the continued burning of fossil fuels and the progressive destruction of forests on earth would lead to a massive increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Huge states in his Environmental Threats to Security[1]
For many, a link between resource depletion and military power politics calculations began to become apparent in the economic downturn of the 1970s and then become firmly established after the conclusion of the Cold War.
But we humans do not want to blame ourselves for the misery we have caused. Specialists are insurance companies that are objectifying Climate Change thus profiting from risks and opportunities of climate change[2]. Much like life insurance is in fact death insurance. It would be important to put an end to the myths surrounding climate change. One of those tales is that the population will migrate from south to north. The assumption that refugees from disaster impacted areas would move beyond their homeland is not correct. Most of them, whether due to violence or natural hazards will stay close to their area of origin. Quite the reverse, the reason to leave the homeland is mostly man-made, and the result of irresponsible actions by politics and those elected to govern. Mixing both, distorting the chain of causation and numerous misconceptions create unnecessary fear and a hostile environment for refugees around the world.
Werrell et al[3], in their analysis of the connections between the uprisings in Syria and Egypt in 2011, examine the Failed States Index and the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index and conclude that
…measurements of state fragility in particular, but also climate vulnerability, may need to take into account a broader array of factors, draw from a more comprehensive array of sources
A similar scientific investigation is the 2018 report of the “Lancet Countdown on health and climate change” which tracks 41 indicators[4]. An impressive drawing shows how intertwined all this is.
Franz Josef Strauß, the legendary Prime Minister of Bavaria, used to say: “Speak simple, but think complicated – not the opposite way round” The topic is quite complicated. And there is no such thing as a “natural” disaster, the climate does not change, as well as security does not threaten us just by itself. We, humans, are responsible.
[1] Hough, Peter. “6. Environmental Threats to Security.” Understanding Global Security. 4th ed. Routledge, 2018, p. 147
[2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311340642_Objectifying_Climate_Change_Weather-Related_Catastrophes_as_Risks_and_Opportunities_for_Reinsurance
[3] Werrell, Caitlin E. & Femia, Francesco & Sternberg, Troy. “Did We See It Coming?: State Fragility, Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt.” SAIS Review of International Affairs, vol. 35 no. 1, 2015, p. 44.
[4] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)32596-6/fulltext
Gabor,
You make a number of interesting–and provocative–statements in your blog post. As you may be aware, this is the topic of an entire course that I also teach on “The Policy Implications of Global Climate Change.” If you will still be enrolled in the program next fall, I would be delighted to welcome you in the course! This is the existential challenge of our time, and all of the science that I am aware of suggests that we have AT MOST until the middle of the century to reach carbon neutrality. But, as you suggest, the people of the world must summon the political, social, economic and personal will to change their behavior and to demand the end of fossil fuel and other uses of carbon.
–Professor Wallerstein