The article ‘Russia’s Perpetual Geopolitics’ by Stephen Kotkin discusses Russia’s misleading perception of the external world. The most prominent feature of Putin’s government is the “strong state” perception, which is overly eager to have Russia’s influence recognized by the West and endangered by its ambition to lead the world order despite the country’s backward capabilities in the military and industrial sectors. Kotkin argues that what Russia needs to advance, more than military modernization, is a competent and responsible government capable of analyzing foreign relations realistically.

The failure to predict Russia’s invasion of Ukraine indicates that Russia’s perception in international politics is completely different from the way the West understands Russia. Putin’s government perceives the Eurasian region as still within its sphere of influence; it also calls for a return to great power, criticizes the U.S. hegemony, and sees China as a possible partner in a multipolar order. Therefore, it sees the current U.S.-China hegemonic rivalry not as a simple trade war, but as an all-around confrontation that will reshape the international system, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for Russia. Furthermore, as the Wall Street Journal notes, “Putin is the sole decision maker, taking all the details of defense and diplomacy into account,” making it even more difficult to analyze Russia’s movements and predict its intentions.

With the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is likely to go further downhill, eliminating itself from competition with the West in terms of military and national power. But even so, Russia’s “brinkmanship” poses a major risk to international relations. As Russia’s diplomatic ground shrinks, Putin will seek to increase cooperation with non-Western countries, most notably with China. While China seems to be trying to distance itself from Russia to some extent, it is not a country to be taken lightly, and if North Korea is added to the Sino-Russian Alliance, a neo-Cold War-style configuration would pose a major security threat. What options can Russia and North Korea consider in a situation where it is difficult to expect Russia to change its position through warnings and condemnations?