Everyday at the Attari-Wagah border between India and Pakistan, there is a ceremony to highlight the tensions between the two nations but also the camaraderie between the soldiers. It’s happened daily since 1959, except for September 29th to October 6th, when there were military confrontations between the two, and India claimed to have crossed the Line of Control into Pakistani controlled land and fatalities (exact numbers are unknown) occurred. Pakistan and India since the dissolution of the British Indian Empire have had their problems. The two nations were built due to religious differences, and when India-Pakistan was partitioned, it forced people to scatter to the designated Hindu country, India, and Muslim country, which were West and East Pakistan, now Pakistan and Bangladesh. This would lead to years of tensions over religious disputes and land disputes.
Pakistan and India’s nuclear war could happen in an instant, with the Hindu minorities in Pakistan and Muslim minorities in India becoming pawn pieces in the government’s agenda, and extremists from both religions committing violent acts. It doesn’t help that they also have China, another nuclear power, in their backyard, with China funding the infrastructure development of Pakistan and India having a hot and cold relationship with China over land disputes. It adds to the ticking bomb that is India and Pakistan and their nuclear capabilities.
In the reading, “Nuclear Ethics? Why Pakistan Has Not Used Nuclear Weapons … Yet,” highlights how India and Pakistan were close to using their nuclear weapons, in the 1999 Kargil War. The Kargil War took place in the Kargil district of Jammu and Kashmir which is undisputed land between India and Pakistan. Religion plays a huge part in this undisputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir, as it’s a Muslim-majority state in India, the other part of Kashmir is claimed by Pakistan. Many of the people in Kashmir want to be seperate from the Indian government and want to become an autonomous zone, which the Indian government refuses to allow. This leads to many human rights violations occurring, with the Indian military often killing, raping and kidnapping people who are apart of the separatist movement. The Kashmiri Hindus were forced to flee when Pakistan supported extremist groups who wanted to “assist” the Kashmiri independence movement entered the conflict. Both governments are trying to stake their claim into Kashmir and further execute their ideals.This tiny undisputed territory is able to highlight all the factors that may be the reason for Pakistan and India to start a nuclear war.
It’s also interesting that one of the other readings points out that India or Pakistan could launch their nuclear weapons on the suspicion that the other will if they don’t. While every nuclear state’s decision to use their arms is a gamble, India and Pakistan are even more so. The randomness of their decision can solely be decided on speculation of the others likeliness which is why nuclear deterrence needs to be promoted as a policy in the region again. All of these nuclear nations being neighbors is a huge security risk, especially with India and Pakistan having huge populations and being so close to each other. The smallest border conflict could be the ultimate trigger to one country using their nuclear weapons.
One reply on “Week 11: Nailah”
Nailah,
It is evident from the content of your blog post that you “get” the highly dangerous nature of the nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. Given their contiguity, there would be extremely limited warning in the event that one side launched nuclear weapons against the other, which means that BOTH sides are always on hair trigger alert and could well launch preemptively if they became convinced that the other side was about to. On the other hand, it has been reported that neither side maintains their nuclear weapons in a “ready” status–in other words, they warheads are not maintained atop the missiles or on board the war planes. So they does provide at least some latitude for deescalation of a crisis–but not much! –Professor Wallerstein