Author: k.callinan

Iraqi and Kurdish forces continued their march toward Mosul today, surrounding the city of Bashiqa – 8 miles from Mosul. Although ISIL is outnumbered (reports put them at anywhere from 3K to 5K soldiers while the Iraqi coalition is 30k strong) the advance is proceeding with caution because of booby traps and suicide bombs that ISIL is using. Despite this, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi says it is progressing faster than planned. The battle is expected to take months and will likely produce a severe humanitarian crisis.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37702442

 

 

The Washington Post reported yesterday that Obama has yet to decide on a plan to send heavier weapons to CIA-backed rebels in Syria. The plan would send anti-aircraft and other heavy artillery to vetted rebels fighting Assad in Syria’s 5 1/2 year war. The plan was brought to the president’s desk this weekend and after a review, Obama decided to hold off on the program for now. The plan is supported by CIA Director Brennan and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter but its opponents, including John Kerry, raise serious concerns.

Kerry fears that the weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists or be used to shoot down Russian aircrafts, sparking a conflict with the Russians. Whatever the case, we should be rightfully skeptical of any plan/partnership with rebel groups. Our track record to date has been less than desirable.

So much of today’s conflict in the Middle East can be understood by studying the region’s history. Sectarian conflict, tribalism, oil and trade routes all have played critical roles in the fighting that we see going on today. This Washington Post piece takes a look at Mosul and how the city has developed over the course of the past thousand years.

I’ll be posting about Mosul a lot over the next couple of weeks and this article explains why it is such an important city in the fight against ISIL.

After weeks of indiscriminate bombing, it looks like the besieged may fall in the coming weeks. Russia and Assad have relentlessly targeted civilians, including hospitals and bakeries, since the ceasefire agreement broke down a few weeks ago.

The humanitarian situation is what makes the Aleppo situation so dire. Hundreds of thousands of people are without electricity, food, water, and in need of medical assistance. Russia and Assad now seem to be using this humanitarian situation as a weapon, “The Syrian regime and its Russian backers have adopted a calculated approach of exacerbating the dire humanitarian situation in Aleppo as a weapon of war. Their apparent goal is to make living conditions in the city so intolerable that the opposition has no choice but to capitulate.”

We’ll have to wait and see what U.S. policy will be towards Aleppo in the final months of the Obama administration.

If you want to know what is happening in Afghanistan, read Mark Perry’s article in Politico. I know it’s hard to believe but the war in Afghanistan began 15 years ago today. The Taliban was ousted within weeks of the invasion but was allowed to regroup after we “took our eyes off the ball” and invaded Iraq. Perry, along with retired CIA operatives and academics, argues that the war will not be won on the battlefield. Instead, we’re carrying out “diplomacy by drone strike” and targeting Taliban leaders who refuse to negotiate with Kabul. “We’re signaling the Taliban that they need to choose a leadership that is interested in a political solution,” the officer says, “because, obviously, this conflict isn’t going to be decided on the battlefield.”

I’ve noted this before but the war has received little to no attention on the campaign trail which is a disgrace because the next commander-in-chief will have some serious decisions to make. Ending this war “would require a commander in chief willing to pay attention to America’s longest war and a Congress willing to spend a bit of money on foreign aid, and so far I see no candidate for public office at any level of either party with the competence, leadership and knowledge required for such a minimally successful foreign policy.”

Doyle McManus of the LA Times wrote on op-ed on Syria back in May. In it, he criticizes the president for not doing more to end the civil war and bring peace to Syria. He says that the president should arm the Syrian rebels and set up safe zones to protect refugees. Pretty standard stuff.

What I liked about President Carter’s op-ed was that he offered an insightful analysis of the conflict. He wrote about the underlying regional tensions and described each of the major player’s role. He also didn’t offer the same old solutions that you’ll see in the news everyday (safe zone, no fly zone, arm the rebels). He pleads with the warring parties and U.S. diplomats to just end the war.

On the other hand, McManus oversimplifies the war and does not offer any refreshing insights or provide us with any brilliant solution to end the conflict.

Unlike McManus’, President Carter’s piece was original and moved the conversation forward.

I feel like India and Pakistan have been on the brink of war my entire life. It has long been referred to as one of the world’s most dangerous conflicts, something like a modern day Balkan powder keg. Tensions between the two countries is compounded by the fact that each nation has nuclear weapons.

The conflict has escalated in recent days with India claiming it carried out a surgical strike against terrorists in Pakistan. And now, India is threatening to “review” a decades old treaty regarding water rights in the Indus basin. Pakistan has stated that if India were to revoke the 56 year old Indus Water Treaty, they would consider it an act of war. Foreign Policy published this great piece analyzing the situation and why this recent escalation is so dangerous.

It’s no secret that ISIL’s caliphate is shrinking. Months of airstrikes targeting their oil reserves and leaders have devastated their cashflow and morale. Additionally, a series of losses on the battlefield and the upcoming assaults on Mosul and Raqqa have left the group as vulnerable as ever.

Foreign Affairs highlighted another reason ISIL needs to be concerned – foreign fighters. Once touted as their biggest asset, foreign fighters have turned into a liability for the terrorist organization. ISIL had a rigid organizational structure based on ethnicity. Arabs hold either the highest or lowest positions while foreigners handle technical and mechanical positions. This structure has frustrated many foreign fighters and has led to deadly confrontations with their ISIL comrades.

It’s only a matter of time before the group is defeated. I’ve posted about this before but leaders need to start planning for a post-ISIL middle east. One last thing to look out for, administration officials are concerned that ISIL may get more and more desperate with each loss. They are planning for a more erratic group that is more likely to carry out terrorist attacks.

 

 

Jimmy Carter wrote an op-ed in the Times last month advocating for an end to the Syrian civil war. He offers a detailed analysis of the situation while providing us with a strategy for ending the war. This piece is much less strategy as it is a plea for help. “When talks resume in Geneva later this month, the primary focus should be stopping the killing. Discussions about the core questions of governance — when President Bashar al-Assad should step down, or what mechanisms might be used to replace him, for example — should be deferred.”

Mr. Carter writes that we need to drop our demand that Assad leave power, the most contentious point in negotiations between Russia and the U.S., and instead focus on an agreement that will stop the fighting. The former president goes through all the stats; nearly half a million killed, half the country displaced, millions in need of humanitarian aid, and says that we must put the Syrian people first. Assad would never agree to anything that leads to a him out of power. The longer we go without a viable ceasefire agreement the longer the Syrian people will suffer. American diplomats would be wise to heed the former president’s advice – stop the killing.

I’ve blogged in the past about the atrocities in Aleppo but the past week has been the most devastating to date. Assad is preparing for a final assault with 10,000 troops, 338 civilians including 100 children have been killed sine the ceasefire ended (WHO), and 80% of convoys have been blocked from getting into the city.

I went to a Foreign Relations Committee hearing this week on Syria and, unfortunately, government officials believe we will be seeing reports like this for the foreseeable future. Check out this Washington Post report for a vivid account of the grim situation in Aleppo.