It’s no secret that ISIL’s caliphate is shrinking. Months of airstrikes targeting their oil reserves and leaders have devastated their cashflow and morale. Additionally, a series of losses on the battlefield and the upcoming assaults on Mosul and Raqqa have left the group as vulnerable as ever.
Foreign Affairs highlighted another reason ISIL needs to be concerned – foreign fighters. Once touted as their biggest asset, foreign fighters have turned into a liability for the terrorist organization. ISIL had a rigid organizational structure based on ethnicity. Arabs hold either the highest or lowest positions while foreigners handle technical and mechanical positions. This structure has frustrated many foreign fighters and has led to deadly confrontations with their ISIL comrades.
It’s only a matter of time before the group is defeated. I’ve posted about this before but leaders need to start planning for a post-ISIL middle east. One last thing to look out for, administration officials are concerned that ISIL may get more and more desperate with each loss. They are planning for a more erratic group that is more likely to carry out terrorist attacks.