The more I read about the Middle East the more astonished I become at how incredibly shortsighted our foreign policy is in the region. President Obama admitted in April that his worst mistake as president was failing to plan for “the day after” in Libya. I mean, we’re only ousting a strongman dictator that has run the place for 40 years. Why would we need to have a plan for the country once said dictator is dead?
I think that is why we see a reluctance by Obama to intervene in Syria. Right now, our sole mission is the target and defeat of ISIL. Which had me thinking, what will we do after ISIL is defeated? They will be defeated. They have lost more than half their territory in Iraq since last year and it is only a matter of time before they start seeing significant losses in Syria. But do we expect wiping ISIL off the face of the earth will kill the extremist ideology that they adhere to?
This report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies had me wondering about “the day after” and is well worth the read:
https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160823_Defeating_ISIS_IraqSyriaLibyaYemen.pdf
Often there is focus on defeat but never on what to do with the civilian population, post that event. In these countries where religious fundamentalism exists, there tends to also be additional limiting factors such as income poverty, ecological poverty, malnutrition, lack of education, poor health, and an overall sense of dependency. The dependency is likely the factor that these fundamentalist groups play into the most, presenting a package to the civilian population that is appealing. A plan is necessary to have people let go of the extremist ideology and that all starts with combating the dependency that exists in these territories.