New York City is Dead Forever. Here’s Why… This is the name of an article that New Yorker James Altucher wrote in August 2020. When I read this title, I immediately felt insulted. “NYC better not be dead,” I thought, “I just committed to living in the city for four years during college, and one of the main reasons I wanted to come was because it’s the city of opportunity!” This bold title compelled me to further investigate. In the back of my mind, I was probably thinking, “Wow… I have to read this just to see how big of an idiot this guy really is!” And as I read, I realized that Altucher actually brought up some very valid and unique points. As much as I wanted to believe that Altucher was just a naïve pessimist, I couldn’t help but spend a lot of time considering the ideas from the article. To convince his audience that New York City is dead forever, James Altucher establishes his authority as a well-versed New Yorker who has always loved his city and presents statistical data that alludes to the dark future that NYC could have in store.

James Altucher is an author, an owner of a comedy club in New York City, and a former hedge fund manager who has lived in the city for many years. When he first moved to NYC, Altucher felt like it was a “dream come true.” New York was everything he wanted and more; the friends, the family, and the opportunity was like nothing he had ever experienced. For the readers who expected the author of an article like this to be somewhat biased, the fact that Altucher has lived in the city for quite some time and has enjoyed it so immensely makes his argument much more legitimate. This allows the reader to feel like they can trust what Altucher is saying because he has established credibility with his audience. By expressing his feelings about all of the things that he has loved while living in NYC, Altucher makes his audience feel like they are looking at this issue from the same side.

Altucher believes that business in New York City will take a tremendous hit from the pandemic which will be tough to recover from. One thing he highlights is that only 500 people – out of 8,000 – are currently working at the Time Life building in midtown Manhattan. This alarming statistic confirms that many New Yorkers are either unemployed or working from home. Because more people are able to work online, the need for a physical workspace is diminishing. This means that the need for office space will start to decline, and people will be able to work from any place with an internet connection. With such a low percentage of people who are still working in an actual office, we have to ask ourselves: will New York continue to be a major hub for business in the future?

On the topic of businesses, our author actually happens to have a business of his own. Altucher “co-owns a comedy club, Standup NY, on West 78th and Broadway.” On a somewhat special and spontaneous occasion, someone famous showed up at Altucher’s club. “One time, Henry Winkler stopped by to come on my podcast. He was the one who told me it had been a theater. He said, ‘I grew up two doors down from here and used to perform in here as a kid. Then I went out to LA to be the Fonz and now I’m back here, full circle, to be on your podcast. This place has history.’” By recounting this experience, Altucher demonstrates in greater detail part of the reason he loves New York so much. On top of the fact that he moved to New York to find opportunity and pursue his passions, Altucher has the privilege of spontaneously meeting people that could have an impact on him for the rest of his life. This is something that many people who either live in NYC or hope to live in NYC look at as an example of why it’s so wonderful. Altucher does a great job of relating to his audience to make them feel like they feel the same way about New York. Altucher once again demonstrates his credibility through a personal anecdote that highlights his love for the culture that is so unique to New York City.

Another big aspect of New York City that Altucher considers is the food scene. Everyone knows that NYC has the widest range of food options in the entire world. Food is definitely one of the best parts of NYC; no matter where you are, you can always find something good to eat. Citing the well-known restaurant review website Yelp, Altucher informs his audience that 60% of restaurants in the United States have closed, and the percentage could be even higher for restaurants in New York.  Because food is such a big part of the city, the frequency of restaurant closures is quite alarming. This could possibly mean that fewer people will be drawn towards the city since one of its greatest perks won’t be as great as it has been in the past.

Since people aren’t commuting to the office or going to restaurants and clubs, Altucher believes that we need to think about how New York City’s real estate market will be affected. As businesses start to close, Altucher claims that prices for real estate will go down which means that apartments and office spaces will become much cheaper. While one might think this is good because more people will want to move into the city, it actually could have the opposite effect. Altucher believes that as prices go down, people will wait… and wait… and wait, “until everyone loses.” To explain this point, Altucher puts the audience in the shoes of someone who is considering buying or renting a place in NYC. As someone who is looking to live in the city, you might have the thought: “Hmmm, everyone is saying NYC is heading back to the 1970s, so even though prices might be 50% lower than they were a year ago, I think I will wait a bit more. Better safe than sorry!” The result is that landlords and real estate owners end up going broke. By putting his audience in the shoes of a person who is looking to rent a place in New York, Altucher is able to shape his audience’s perspective to help them understand why this deflationary spiral might take place in New York’s real estate market.

Even though he has established and backed up his bold claim on the future of NYC, Altucher still understands why some people might be skeptical about NYC being dead: “New York always comes back, even after 9/11 and the 2008 recession.” But Altucher believes this time is different. Because of the increased internet bandwidth, high-quality video calls are now possible; and not only are they possible, but they have also become much more reliable than they were in the past. “People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds. The Time-Life building doesn’t need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan.”  By addressing a possible counterargument, Altucher reveals that he isn’t being closed-minded while discussing his stance on New York. Not only does this improve his overall argument, but it also adds to his credibility as someone who looks at an issue from multiple perspectives.

Right now, New York City might not be as great of a place to live as it once was, but it’s hard to say if it will be that way forever. It is important to consider the timeliness of Altucher’s article. The article was written in August 2020, which was in the thick of the pandemic. When things are bad, it can be quite hard to see how they could ever get better. Although Altucher makes many great arguments, we need to take a step back and realize that no one can predict the future with 100% accuracy. Since we don’t know what the future might have in store for us, all we can do is speculate with the information we currently have. This is exactly what Altucher is doing. He is generating claims from the things that he knows to be true at this current time. While it isn’t a bad thing to predict the future, we must recognize that any predictions made about the future come from a more narrow perspective than reflections made about the past.

James Altucher builds a strong claim that New York City is dead forever and he supports his assertion by establishing credibility as someone who knows a thing or two about life in New York, and by illustrating the effects that certain statistics will have on NYC. There is no doubt that NYC has taken a big hit from the pandemic; we can see how it has affected businesses, restaurants, clubs, real estate, and culture in the city. The question we should be asking ourselves is “will this be permanent?” Are the issues that Altucher discusses just a short-term effect of the pandemic, or will they change the city forever? There is a classic virtue that says “only time will tell.” This is something I believe we all should keep in mind when we hear bold statements about the future. Never expect to find the complete truth about something that hasn’t happened yet. All we can do when we see things like, “New York City is Dead Forever… Here’s Why,” is hope to gain a new perspective on a complex issue. So… Is New York City really dead forever? Only time will tell…