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There is obviously a lot of talk about the rising tensions with China. At times, it has seemed to reach cartoonish proportions, with things like spy balloons taking up airtime for candidates in the early primaries. At other times, it has taken on a much more serious tone, like when China threatened to help directly with Russia’s war effort in Ukraine or China’s increasingly bellicose stance towards Taiwan. Amidst all of the noise (and the readings), there seem to be two main conversations happening. The first is “Are China and the US headed for war, and will it be hot or cold?” The second is “Is China on its way to replacing the US as the dominant global economic and diplomatic power?”

While the prospect of war is a nightmare scenario, I believe we are already beginning a cold war that is unlikely to heat up. Some key differences between the current situation and the US-Soviet rivalry include communication, stability, and long-term goals. For much of the Cold War, there was zero communication between the White House and the Kremlin. Meanwhile, US and Chinese government officials are in regular contact, a crucial part of crisis prevention. Despite the domestic issues plaguing both countries, neither the US nor China are in the financial hole that led to the fall of the society union, and so are less likely to act irrationally. Finally, the Cold War was about more than establishing dominance. It was about two warring economic ideologies bent on destroying each other. The US and China may be struggling for dominance, but other than a select few Republican presidential candidates, no one is concerned about China’s dominance being the end of capitalism and democracy worldwide.

The second question is much more interesting to me, yet I have much less to say on the matter. There are just too many uncertainties. Will China’s failing domestic economy affect its international growth? Will the various oppressive policies it has reach a critical mass and lead to regime change? (Unlikely, in my opinion, but the last few years have taught me to keep my mouth shut and watch.) Will the US continue this isolationist trend, scaring many of our allies in the East? Will Trump be re-elected, and how will he conduct foreign policy differently than the last time? I don’t know the answers to these questions, but I look forward to discussing them in class.

The rising state of China over time has become a prominent problem for the United States. Whether it was economically, politically, or military China has been growing rapidly in comparison to the growth of the United States in the world arena. The United States’ foreign policy toward China in the South China Sea, its public recognition of Tawain, and anti-communist ideas have caused a security dilemma for China. This is evident in Andrew Scobell’s article “The South China Sea and U.S.-China Rivalry”.  The article is about the South China Sea, a key strategic position for China, and its relevancy to the United States of America from a geopolitical perspective. Mr. Scobell highlights US-China relations stating “By “rivalry,” I mean an antagonistic relationship between two states embroiled in “long-term hostility” and competition manifested in ‘multiple disputes, continuing [policy] disagreements and the threat of the use of force’”. (Scobell, 2018) This quote supports that China believes there is a security competition with the United States of America by creating military deterrents. The security competition as highlighted in the quotation is one of force capabilities. These force capabilities are military capabilities such as the creation of a nuclear bomb program. An example of this was evident when Qian Xuesen whom China sent to study in America to understand the secrets of harnessing nuclear energy to be consolidated in a bomb was discovered.  

Another factor that plays into tensions, as Julian Gewirtz argues in her article “China Thinks America is Losing”, is China’s perception of the US under the Trump administration. Former President Donald Trump practiced overtly tactics to attack China starting from his words on the bully pulpit to actual foreign policy decisions. Examples of these actions are Trump’s Trade War, his technological bans/tariffs on Chinese products, and the public blaming of China for mishandling the COVID-19 virus. During his administration, China was able to confirm its suspensions that the US was actively attempting to stop China’s rise to power. It also influences China to believe Trump’s radical/frantic behavior is an indicator that the US is declining faster than they thought. This has caused China to be more resilient when attempting to supersede the US as the new hegemon of the world. In order to undo such aspirations the United States must change China’s political elites/decision makers’ perception of itself.  Many argue the civil unrest in the US, its ever-changing leadership, and its highly polarized atmosphere might make an attempt to undo China’s belief the US is declining impossible. I pose the question to the class do you think China’s rise can be reversed or has the US’ time as the hegemon come to an end? 

China definitely would like to establish itself as an integral part of geopolitics and economics. Earlier, it has successfully, established itself as a global manufacturer and the largest exporter of the world. In addition, it has maintained one of the highest economic growth rates in the world for more than a quarter on a century.Yet, Yuan still lags a major global currency and the tag of major global power.

However, in recent years China is trying to grasp its place as a global power or simply refusing to play as an underdog. China’s de-dollarization plans are speeding up since the pandemic and few months ago in April Argentina announced it would pay for $1 billion worth of imports from China in Yuan and for $790 million worth of monthly imports thereafter. It also activated a currency swap agreement, making it possible for companies to borrow from China in Yuan. Hence, Yuan is gaining a bit popularity where supply of US dollar is dwindling.

The BRI by China is a reflection of China’s supremacy in the global arena in every way. By building ports, roads in its trading regions like South Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Middle East and Africa; China is definitely not doing an act of service. They do have some vested interest. In my opinion, it is to gain control of that region like a quid pro quo. For example, Pakistan is debt locked to China. I do agree with many other opposing governments that “China is laying a debt trap for borrowing governments”. What I feel is that the OBOR or BRI is a passive policy of China to slowly invade a country. And, the AIIB is another way of luring poor developing countries into agreeing unsustainable loans to pursue infrastructure projects, so when they face financial difficulties, China can seize their property.

This week’s reading selection put into the spotlight the rapid rise of  China in the international landscape and the growing deterioration of the relationship between the two countries. The construction of missile silos, the global challenges posed by the war in Ukraine, and the afterword of the global pandemic have left behind the question of how far China has come and how close we are to witnessing a significant shift in global power dynamics.  

Although some of us may think there is a long road to go, Elizabeth Economy’sarticle highlights some signs that China’s rise on the world stage has been evident for quite some time. She discusses that President Xi’s move to reunify the “motherland” under the one-country, two-system governance model has been just one of the several strategic steps taken to assert China’s influence on the international landscape. A prime example of China’s growing influence e has been its ambitious Belt and Road Initiatives, which aims to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa through a vast network of infrastructure projects. Position China as the epicenter of the international system, carrying significant geopolitical implications. Nevertheless, this has not been the only move made by China to position itself in the global landscape. The country’s shift in nuclear strategies has raised questions about the global arms control landscape. This shift has been marked by advancements in nuclear technology and increased tension in nations worldwide pondering the question of China’s long-term intentions.   

However, China’s path has not been without its fair share of challenges and sacrifices. As the article highlights, one significant obstacle is the issue of public trust in the Chinese leadership, human rights abuse, and the centric political stance on global issues. These factors cast a shadow on China’s rise and raise questions about its legitimacy as a global leader. 

As the world watches China’s ascent, events such as the war in Ukraine and the emergence of alternative forms of “democracy” are shaping the international geopolitical landscape; it will be interesting to see what the future prepares for us.

China’s rise to global power has indicated threats to the US for various reasons. Although its rise to global status has not been a surprise to the international community, its magnitude has. This weeks readings raises the question; Is China’s rise a threat to the international community? China’s market has surpassed the international market with intents to be accepted as China, and not as a member of the West. Its economic growth can be traced back to the financial crisis in 2008, affecting US and European markets, but not affect China. Under Xi Jinping, China’s economy grew by re-establishing communism and transitioning from export focused economy to domestic consumption.  Graham explained Chinese markets exponentially grew 28% larger than the US from 1980 to 2014. In 1980 China’s GDP measured 7%, whereas in 2014 China’s GDP measured 101%.

Although this is great news for the Chinese economy, it threatens Americas current dominating  force in Asian-Pacific. With Chinas great rise, it also encourages for China to regain power in its former territories. Xi’s intentions are to regain Hong Kong and Taiwan. Its threats consisted of using its nuclear weapons. Xi has tried to implement intimidating tactics but only managed to have his plans backfire. Approximately more than half of Taiwanese citizens (including abroad) are not in favor of Xi’s power. In fact, Xi’s intimidation tactics have added on allyship including European counties such as Czech Republic, Lithuania, Slovakia, and The US. Currently China has Silos under construction at Yumen and Hami. Approximately 230 of them are being built. Although China does not disclose its accurate number and its intentions. It poses a threat to US to an ongoing arms race.

Chinas intentions are very similar to those of Russia, but seems to have the means and power to execute its plans effectively. Under Trump’s administration, Trump pushed towards the New START policy with the exception for China to be included. China refused to partake in the treaty only if the US were to cut its arsenal significantly. Biden was able to continue to participate in the New START treaty mentioning it was unwise for it to expire since it establishes a treaty with Russia. However, at some point it would be wise to enter in agreement with China.

In conclusion, I’d like to add I have found this week’s readings questioning Americas global status. It is evident we no longer live in a hegemonic world and US as its world leader. Russia and China are continuously challenging US’s power. However, I believe if it was not for US and their allyship, China would be expanding its territory. However, I find it harder to believe China would like to establish world supremacy.

As the article “The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?” by Allison explains, there is growing anxiety about whether the U.S.-China conflict is falling into the “Thucydides Trap,” in which mutual checks between a superpower and an emerging nation is turning into war. Military tensions over the Taiwan Strait and economic rivalry for global hegemony over semiconductor technology and rare earths are also on the rise. As China bares its claws, the U.S. appears more impatient and self-serving than before in its efforts to ward off these challenges which make its neighbors and allies are now looking to carve out their own paths. Europe has devised a pragmatic “de-risking” strategy of reducing its dependence on China without antagonizing it, and countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed confidence in their ability to determine their own relationship with the United States and China.

Despite China’s economic crisis thesis, significant debt from the BRI, and military power that still lags behind the U.S., its progress to date is undeniable, and it is expected to challenge or surpass the U.S. in more and more areas. In the meantime, it is unlikely that the current U.S. strategy of all-encompassing containment of China will change, and China will continue to respond with an “eye for an eye” strategy. For now, China’s economic and military gap with the U.S. will limit its options for confronting the U.S., but its options will increase.

In response, the Biden administration is trying to talk to China with a “De-risking” policy, but it is not much different from the previous Decoupling strategy in that it is unlikely that China will be receptive to dialog with the United States, given the escalation of sanctions on China and is also extremely close to Taiwan, a core Chinese interest. But Xi Jinping is using it to his advantage. By emphasizing external threats internally, he is creating an autocratic power and building an anti-Western coalition externally. Both the United States and China recognize the need for crisis management, but like a bicycle with broken brakes, they keep rolling. For the United States, concessions sound like the wrong thing to do at this critical moment, when we cannot afford to lose high-tech and military technology to China. However, political rhetoric that makes China the enemy or confuses our allies and partners could backfire in favor of China. After all, when it comes down to it, trust in the current democratic system is likely to crumble the moment the United States turns to its own self-interest.

Class 4 China as a rising hegemonic power

China has, no doubt, shown its rise to power in the last century. It is becoming a superpower in its own right. As its muscles grow, its urge to expand grows, and its political and military expansion has threatened the liberal world order. The articles for this week’s class were intriguing, especially Zhang Feng. ‘s Article.
Zhang, Feng Article: “Chinese, thinking on the South China Sea and the Future of Regional Security. It gives us insight into China’s expansion into the South China Sea; despite its name, many countries within the region claim maritime borders in the ocean territory. The Reader could take China’s rapid growth in numerous different ways. The article provided a chart for the political leanings of China’s expansion into the South China Sea—the hard-liners, Moderates, and Pragmatists. The cart outlines how even China’s future development goals could be convoluted. China does not want to appear weak, but its expansions could harm diplomacy with neighboring Countries. The article was also interesting to read. Rather than brute military force, China uses more police brigades. Using police to handle disputes mirrors some recent issues with using the military in the Tiananmen Square massacre and eliminating most free speech within the country. In the coming years, China may have problems Controlling the public’s dissent and anger.
In Conclusion, Zheng’s Articles give an exciting insight into world affairs— The expansion of a supposed “peace-loving nation” and its goals to be accepted by other sovereign nations.

With recent discussions in class about alliances and NATO and BRICS being on the forefront of the news, I found the Quad Alliance referenced in the Washington Post article particularly interesting. This is my first time hearing of the Quad Alliance of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, but from the article it seems that could be common as it is not a highly active alliance.

The purpose of this Quad Alliance to “maintain a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific.’” Marlow (Author of the article) also states that it’s priority is to counter China’s rise. This alliance was created in 2007 following a tsunami in the Indian Ocean, which led to military exercises involving all countries. The alliance has been in and out since then, but has recently become more active due to President Trump’s stance against China, the origin of the coronavirus and the aggressive behavior of China against Taiwan and that region. With the Indian Ocean and South China Sea so crucial to global trade, this alliance has potential to make a difference in the near future.

It is clear that the Quad Alliance is a response to China, but should China be worried? Clearly China has its sight on Taiwan and view any interference as a threat. I do not believe China should view this alliance as an immediate threat due to lack of activity, BRICS and self preservation. As stated above, besides the military exercises back in 2007, the alliance has not posed any direct threats to China. India and China have been apart of the recently growing alliance of BRICS. This combines with India being adjacent to China will most likely limit any threats the Quad would propose against China. Lastly, both India and Japan are in close proximity to China. Any steps the Quad takes to prevent the rise of China could effect them worse than Australia and the United States. Marlow state’s that this could be a potential NATO in Asia, but as of now it appears that BRICS has the most current and powerful alliance in Asia.